Friday, February 26, 2010

Reviews - The Runaways



I saw this at a screening the other night held by my school preceding a Q&A with Joan Jett. My life is rarely more kickass.

The Runaways chronicles the rise of the titular band, comprised solely of young girls playing rock music as good as any other rock that came out at the time. They became definitive of bitches with attitude and remained so long after the demise of the short lived band. Director Floria Sigismondi effectively articulated this bitchy disregard for the norm through her direction, which had a tone that connected the audience to the mindset and appeal of The Runaways leading up to and following the height of their popularity.

The central character, who wrote the memoir the film was largely based on, is lead singer Cherie Currie. Played by Dakota Fanning, seemingly desperate to break through her trademark of playing the token little girl, seems to draw from her experience of wanting to break through more boldly through her acting career to tackle this role. She approaches her character as the fish out of water, little girl trying to act bold in a bigger world, after an unexpected and rather rushed breakthrough based on her potential image alone. Once thrusted into the spotlight, it becomes clear that she quickly loses control over her life and becomes a ticking cherry time bomb. By the time she cracks, however, Fanning doesn't seem to transport this character through this arc with anything more than simply acting high/cracked out. Bearing the weight of the film itself on her shoulders, she leaves far less of an imprint than I think she's capable of and could have accomplished with this character. But it was a tough role.

Seeming more seamless was Kristen Stewart's transformation into rock goddess Joan Jett. Some would argue probably because...it's already her. I would probably take issue with that, but there's no doubt the role fit her like a glove and just because it might have been "easier" for her to take on this role doesn't take away from how good the ultimate product of her performance was. Throughout her short career she already seems to carry herself like an unassuming and unashamed bitch whose reached rock star status (not to be taken as an insult, at all). Making the character that much more her own is a simple testament to Stewart's natural capabilities, and given the more she seemed to layer her portrayal of Jett with — like the value of her ambition and unabashed devotion to the success of the band which she took a lot of responsibility for forming which was heartbreakingly betrayed as the band naturally fell apart — it's not as if this so called "easy" performance was handed to her on a silver platter. But, realistically, if you were never a fan of Stewart's acting style (and beyond Twilight, too), then you're not going to think of her too fondly in this film.

But easily the show stopper in this set is the recently appreciated character actor Michael Shannon, who plays the producer who "discovered" the girls and got the band on the tracks to success. Now, I'm someone who loved Revolutionary Road, but I hated his own performance in said film. I thought it was cartoonish, over the top, and rather distracting. No problems here as his crazed professionalism never seemed too out of the box nor above and beyond the already hectic tone of the film. throughout his character's orchestration of the band's rise. Shannon plays this character with a Wellesian hubris — that is, he was ultimately willing to compromise and show some more warmth only after he had gone too far with his own ambitions and dreams for the band. He introduced to the character strong traits that fed to the film's portrayal of the band's rise and kept it as irritatingly consistent as possible as to realistically have the film progress to the eventual breakup of The Runaways.


The thing that took me by surprise the most, though, is its cinematography (and I can see much of that being due to the vision of director Floria Sigismondi). It really placed you right in the center of everything; rarely with a film of this one's smaller scope have I felt more immersed into the settings. It communicated volumes of the settings and the states of mind of all involved, too. At first all the scenes of them at home seemed very familiar, nothing we haven't seen before. But their progression into rock stardom started being welcomed with more "edgy" angles and much tighter shots — which, to its discredit, seemed really obvious and "showy" when they first appeared. But eventually it managed to take over much more effortlessly (except the scenes where they were high), and one could see exactly through the eyes and perspectives of the girls portrayed more than the acting of the women portraying them ever managed to accomplish.

The cinematography also managed to communicate the atmosphere and mood of any given moment Sigismondi wished, and I think it is through this sharp directing eye that ultimately left The Runaways as an enjoyable experience for me. A solid B.
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Greatness - "I'm Easy" from Nashville



I figure one way to keep interest in this blog thriving throughout the year when there will be no major Oscar buzz nor will there be many movies of interest for me to review, I'll just make posts of certain scenes of movie history or of anything I like, really, as those are the types of things that obviously keep fueling my own passion for film. This of course, being from Robert Altman's Nashville, from 1975. In here, everything works out. Filming is brilliantly subdued, the acting from Tomlin and Carradine is simply haunting, the song is among the most beautiful you will ever hear. It's the visceral cinematic experience in its purest sense. Read more!

Sunday, February 21, 2010

MOB: BAFTA results!

Looks like my predictions were better going by the pictures I posted than my actual choices. The only two non-corresponding pictures in Picture and Director I accurately predicted the coveted Film/Director BAFTA combination for Bigelow — whose film more or less swept with six awards. I'm glad I was wrong about Bridges, and Mulligan's win probably increases Bullock's chances at the win.

The only major influence this could have on the actual Oscars is what seems to be the only close race — for the first time a voting branch with Academy overlap reward Mark Boal's screenplay for The Hurt Locker over Inglourious Basterds. I guess it shouldn't have been too hard to see with Basterds missing out on a film nomination, but this makes The Hurt Locker officially a prominent frontrunner for that prize. I'd put its chances at close to 60% at this point, though Basterds obviously still has a chance. Read more!

Saturday, February 20, 2010

MOB: BAFTA predictions!



This could be very difficult to figure out and very aggravating once the results are announced. But it's crucial and oftentimes a deciding factor in a close race due to the strength in the British Academy of Film and Television Association's numbers in AMPAS overlap. And this year, it's a bit more complicated than the sewn up Academy races.

That being said, sometimes there is a clear home field bias (though much less so than the American Academy's).



Best Film
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Up In The Air


Best Film is actually where we might see the biggest upset. Many people expect home town favorite An Education, which tied Avatar and The Hurt Locker for 8 nominations. History with films like The Queen and Atonement winning the top prize would support this theory (and Slumdog, but everyone went universally gaga for that one), however, all those films managed at least seven nominations in the actual Academy (and, I would argue, much to the strength of British love for those films). An Education only managed a grand total of three nominations. Which, in my mind, might show love for An Education but not quite enough passion.

Other options include The Hurt Locker, which could add another award atop Queen Kathryn's pile. That being said, BAFTAs tend to split Picture/Director quite often, particularly when it comes to Academy favorites. The year Return of the King swept all the awards, Peter Jackson lost Best Director. The year No Country for Old Men dominated the domestic guilds, the Coen brothers only came out with Best Director. The only lack of splits (since 1999 when the BAFTAs became relevant to awards seasons announcing before the Oscars) were with The Fellowship of the Ring, The Pianist, Brokeback Mountain and Slumdog Millionaire. The first somehow managed to not get that kind of passion in the states and the latter we've already determined was a freak-incident where we witnessed the single "winningest" film in contemporary awards history.
But, anyways, in the tradition of these splits — it seems as if The Hurt Locker might just have too much of that gritty "American" feel to reward with their top prize along with Best Director.

The final frontrunner seems to be Avatar, here, who punditry king I worship David Karger predicts to take it. Though...I question that. It just...doesn't seem up their aisle. It did break the British box office record just as it did any other, but so did Mamma Mia! last year. And Titanic before it, which also went empty handed at the BAFTAs. But I do suppose it could be a possibility, and I see it more or less sweeping their techs which could prove a deciding factor.
The only other options are Precious and Up in the Air, both of which I'm surprised made it over Inglourious Basterds. I'm not quite sure if they have the potential to overtake any of the three previously mentioned, but as I did mention — they all have seemingly significant cons. Those two, though, seem to have more on a cultural and mathematical level. No director nominations, less nominations than any of the other mentioned, and both (in my mind) seem to have distinctly American qualities to them that I don't imagine would translate well across the pond. Precious was not nearly as well received by critics over there as it was here, and traditionally BAFTA never seemed to go as crazy for the racially themed films. Up in the Air deals with a time and personality distinctly a window of contemporary America, as well, and not one that seems to be greeted with widespread enthusiasm anywhere outside of this country.
But, if the cons of all the others weigh them down — you really never know. A Precious win here could just make things in the actual BP race legitimately crazy.

Final Prediction, gun to my head: The Hurt Locker



Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Neill Blomkamp, District 9
Lone Scherfig, An Education
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds


This isn't as clear cut as you might think it is, either. In my last rant I went on the foregone conclusion that Bigelow has the biggest shot here, which I'd argue that she does. However...let's take the flip side of what I argued there — if The Hurt Locker is about to win Best Film, then...history tells us that it will probably split with Director. And it's not as if that the clear directing heavyweights like the Coen brothers always win, as we saw with Peter Jackson's loss in 2004. Cameron may follow the string of his film's inevitable tech sweep, or even Scherfig will continue the "historical female" thing and give her the biggest recognition of An Education — as compromise of sorts for not giving it their top prize due to a lack of passion (but obvious respect for it). Another potential wildcard? Tarantino (pictured above). Perfectly possible. Many of the Director wins go to these seemingly celebrity auteurs like Almodovar, Polanski, Weir, Greengras — a club Tarantino seems more than suited for (regardless of his film not being nominated in the vein of Greengras).
Blomkamp doesn't really have a chance, but I guess I legitimately can't put anyone in the 0% club with an award as crazy as BAFTA.

Final Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow



Leading Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Andy Serkis, Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll


Another race, another possibility to go any which way. The two strongest competitors for this however, in my mind, seem to be Bridges and Firth. But Bridges doesn't exactly have the same narrative to win the BAFTA as he does for the Oscars. This is actually his first BAFTA nomination, and the most he might have been overdue for is a nomination. However, the performance itself is strong enough to win on its own merits. But if Bridges is an American institution, its really easy to call Firth (pictured above) a British Institution. Beloved by the BAFTA, this will be his fourth nomination (akin to Bridges for the Oscars), not even winning for his star making turn in Pride & Prejudice. Another performance that would deserve a win on its own merits in a film strong yet not loved enough to crack many more nominations.
Going by the overdue argument, though, this is George Clooney sixth motherfuckin nomination, fourth for acting. No wins. Yet, he's still plenty loved by the Europeans. Perhaps he'll be the happy medium that will steal the award away from both of them? Given the lack of enthusiasm I suspect for the film, however, I'm not willing to hedge my bets on it.
A Renner win here could be a game changer. Let's put Serkis in the 0% club.

Final Prediction: Jeff Bridges



Leading Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel


The fight here is between Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep. Without what I see as a "fuck it" win for Sandra Bullock possible (The Bind Side wasn't released in time for eligibility), either one of these actresses can take it. For a long time this seemed like another foregone conclusion to go to British sweetiepie Mulligan (pictured above) in a baitily British An Education, for which this can be yet another possible consolation prize for the beloved film. If she beats Streep here, any chances Meryl had for the Oscar are caput. However, she stands a formidable chance of winning playing the overdue card. Since the turn of the decade, she's actually been nominated for more BAFTAs than Oscars (inconceivable, right?!) and also has not won a BAFTA since the early 80s (and no, not for Sophie's Choice).
And a Sidibe win here could shake things up. The only one, I think, who can muster an upset against Bullock at the Oscars, Sidibe is in a film which — let's face it — was loved enough by the BAFTA to muster a Best Film nomination even if it doesn't seem to be their "cup of tea," if you will. I'd say she doesn't have as much of a shot against Mulligan or Streep, but a fair shot nevertheless.
This isn't Ronan's first nomination, either, but there's no indication that they were any big fan of The Lovely Bones and she's much too young. And, let's put Tatou in the 0% club.

Final Prediction: Carey Mulligan



Let's not kid ourselves about the Supporting races. Brit veteran Molina might siphon some votes away but not enough to overcome Waltz. Mo'Nique's only competition are women sharing nominations with their co-stars that will split whatever few votes they may have, as liked as Kristin Scott Thomas may be in the BAFTA.

Final Prediction: Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique



Original Screenplay
The Hangover (Jon Lucas, Scott Moore)
The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
A Serious Man (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
Up (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter)


Of course this can go any which way as well, but it's probably equal to the Academy in that it's a race of Mark Boal (pictured above with director Bigelow) vs. Quentin Tarantino. The Hurt Locker has the Best Film nomination as an advantage over it, but if they want to reward Quentin Tarantino at all (a prospect I mentioned with his Director chances) than this would probably be a much more convenient place to do it. They like the Coen brothers but they only tend to win when it's "their" year (a la Fargo and No Country for Old Men), and Up has a tiny sliver of a deserved chance. Let's not mention that other possibility, yucko.

Final Prediction: Inglourious Basterds



Adapted Screenplay
District 9 (Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell)
An Education (Nick Hornby)
In The Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche)
Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher)
Up In The Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)


Here our options are a bit more open. Up in the Air could be a consolation prize, here, as it likely will be for the Academy when they recognize Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (both pictured above). However, I don't quite see the film itself as being deemed that important to give a Screenplay win to, and I think it might be between the two British scripts of the nominees: An Education and In the Loop. In the Loop hilariously showcases strictly British humor in this political satire, and they will probably go apeshit over it. However, Nick Hornby is very respected (and not just in Britain), and I think this is another award that An Education will add to its pile.
If Precious shockingly sweeps, it'll take this one. But it won't. District 9 has a tiny sliver of a chance, I suppose.

Final Prediction: An Education

So, let's see how that goes!


My full predictions:
Best Film: The Hurt Locker
Best British Film: In the Loop
Best Film Not in the English Language: The White Ribbon
Best Direction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Leading Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Leading Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nick Hornby, An Education
Best Cinematography: Mauro Fiore, Avatar
Best Costume Design: Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria
Best Sound: Christopher Boyes; Gary Summers; Andy Nelson; Tony Johnson; Addison Teague, Avatar
Best Editing: Bob Murawski; Chris Innis, The Hurt Locker
Best Special Visual Effects: Joe Letteri; Stephen Rosenbaum; Richard Baneham; Andy Jones, Avatar
Best Music: Michael Giacchino, Up
Best Animated Film: Up
Best Production Design: Rick Carter; Robert Stromberg; Kim Sinclair, Avatar
Best Make Up & Hair: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Rising Star Award: Kristen Stewart

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Friday, February 19, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay



We close this series (for now) with yet another pretty secure race. If the BAFTAs this weekend shape anything up, I'll update my stats with some hopefully more exciting numbers. But, for now:

1. Up in the Air - 60%
2. Precious - 25%
3. District 9 - 10%
4. An Education - 5%
5. In the Loop - 0%






Consolation award for Up in the Air, whose chances for BP are more or less dead at this point, and recognition to Jason Reitman as an up-and-comer who has already provided us with three definitive comedy classics of the decade in the footsteps of his father. Does Sheldon Turner deserve to share his credit? Probably not, and Jason Reitman agrees. But I don't think he's showing his sour feelings about it. This should be able to go on to win the WGA and then the Oscar.



This race isn't locked but it's nowhere near as open as its Original counterpart. Precious — a film which did not miss out on a single significant nomination (in precursors and actual Oscars themselves, unlike Up in the Air) — has proven itself loved in the Hollywood community. But it'll likely get its consolation prize in the form of Mo'Nique's history making monstrosity of a Supporting performance; but if it ends up surprising in a bit of a sweep, it'll could possibly pick up this one in conjunction with a major Sidibe upset.



The well written among the Sci-Fi nominees for Best Picture this year, District 9 boasts support in both commercial appeal and artistic achievement. It's as enjoyable as it is thought provoking, as heartfelt as it is adrenaline pumping. If people pop in the screener or DVD for a rewatch maybe they'll be able to catch up on some of the unsubtle political imagery and commentary on apartheid, class relations, and bureaucratic science and reward its thematically rich screenplay with a prize here. It's an uphill climb against the two BP contenders, though.



It'll have supporters in the Academy's formidable British contingency, but this film performed well in neither box office nor precursors this year, including nabbing only 2 other Oscar nominations aside from this. BAFTAs will have to serve as a consolation prize.



It was great to see this foul mouthed political party film make the cut, but that in itself will have to serve as its reward.

Up next: BAFTA mania this weekend! Predictions tomorrow, results and analysis the next!

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Thursday, February 18, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Original Screenplay



Most open race there is.

1. Inglourious Basterds - 49%
2. The Hurt Locker - 47%
3. Up - 3%
4. A Serious Man - 1%
5. The Messenger - 0%







Inglourious Basterds has the frontrunner status here as its potential consolation prize — aside from Christoph Waltz. More of a consolation prize for Tarantino himself, who has made (in my opinion) consistently worthy movies since his last Oscar fifteen years ago for Pulp Fiction without recognition. It's about on an even keel with The Hurt Locker in a potential sweep to give that movies as many wins as possible; but Inglourious Basterds has enough Oscar support (eight nominations), actor support (SAG Ensemble win) and even theories of winning the whole thing thanks to Harvey Weinstein blitzkrieging Los Angeles with campaign advertising and screener releases for this film.




But, of course, it's very very tight. The Writer's Guild Awards this weekend will hardly give us an indication, unless The Hurt Locker loses which would essentially ruin its chances (which it won't, though, since its the only WGA nomination from this list). Thanks to the disqualification of 7 out of the 10 movies nominated in both screenplay categories, The Hurt Locker seems slated to win the WGA without disqualified Basterds in the competition. It could very well follow suit at the Oscars if that helps its screenplay to build buzz, and the WGA winners have matched up for each of the past five years worth of winners. But with the safely solid support Basterds holds at the helm of writing superstar Quentin Tarantino, that gives it the slightest inch of advantage over this screenplay by writing nobody Mark Boal.





Up follows the tradition of Pixar films getting nominated in Screenplay but holds the distinction of being the first to be nominated in Picture, as well. This seems like an opportune time to finally reward Pixar in this category where they've consecutively deserved it these past two years with both Ratatouille (by Brad Bird) and WALL·E (by Andrew Stanton). With the behemoth front two competitors ahead of it though for a screenplay by Pete Docter which is perhaps less deserving than those mentioned two, it's a terribly steep uphill climb. Though, I guess I wouldn't say impossible. The scene I provided here proves the screenplay's sheer irresistible charm at the film's highest points.




The Coen brothers managed to nab a Picture nomination in conjunction with A Serious Man's screenplay nomination due, probably, to the loyalty and love from the writing branch. They don't always go for the Coens but this is a brilliantly written and thematically dense contribution by the brothers which the writing branch can't resist. Unfortunately, the writing branch does not solely get to vote in this category — and the hard to access "Coeny" nature of the movie will not get enough widespread support to take this one all the way.




It barely got into that last nomination slot and only has one other nomination for Woody Harrelson (when it had the potential to grab slots in Picture and Supporting Actress). This seems like a film at least admired by those who've seen it, but a) that's not a big group in itself and b) not loved enough by even that group to take it all the way to a win. It would be a shocker of all-time status.

Up next: Best Adapted Screenplay!

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Wednesday, February 17, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actress



This race isn't much more exciting than it's Supporting counterpart.

1. Mo'Nique - 99.999999%
2. Maggie Gyllenhaal - .0000001%
3. Anna Kendrick - 0%
4. Vera Farmiga - 0%
5. Penélope Cruz - 0%






To quote The Onion, "Mo'Nique know she look good." And she's known she's gonna win that Oscar, as we all did, since February 2009 at the Sundance premiere of Precious. Her lock status more or less started there and only got stronger when everyone saw it. Usually, in that kind of situation, your buzz peaks too soon. In other cases, it just seals its position in the history books. And an already historic performance as this won rarely loses.



Maggie Gyllenhaal is beloved in Hollywood and overdue for a decade of some definitively bold work. But that's why she got nominated. And nothing could be worse for her career if she beats Mo'Nique.



Who knew this Twilight starlet would turn in one of the best Supporting Actress performances of the year? Girlfriend tore up the screen as the tightly wound professional Ivy grad trying to mature much too soon, much to the detriment of the age she lives in. Splitting votes with the divine Vera Farmiga and in a movie that's past its glory day(s), she knows she doesn't have a God's chance in beating Mo'Nique. But this cute little ball of spunk enjoys being there nevertheless.



Overdue indie darling Farmiga gave as appropriately a mature performance as foil Anna Kendrick gave one of less maturity in Up in the Air, but she questionably never got quite the level of praise among critics as her younger counterpart did, though actual viewers of the film largely seem divided over who was better. Team Farmiga, here, but it's all heresay anyways since both lovely ladies got nominated and will have to be grateful for just that.




Penélope is quickly becoming an unlikely Academy darling with her third nomination of the past four years, including holding leftover good will for one of the most deserving Supporting Oscars of the decade granted to her last year for tearing up every fierce second of her brief fourteen minute performance in Vicky Christina Barcelona, where she left enough of an impression to make one think she was a lead role. With Nine she brings forth a similar sexual ferocity in her line delivery that proves she's quickly becoming one of the world's top comediennes. Her new found love has assured the failure of Nine it's only major nomination, thanks in conjunction to her acclaimed performance in Broken Embraces earlier in the year, but she probably only just reached the cutoff in this category.

Next up: Best Original Screenplay!

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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actor



If you get this category wrong this year, you're officially bad at predicting the Oscars.

1. Christoph Waltz - 100%
2. Christopher Plummer - 0%
3. Stanley Tucci - 0%
4. Woody Harrelson - 0%
5. Matt Damon - 0%






It's done.



Helen Mirren and really old Canadian AMPAS voters will vote for him.

Also covers nomination for The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.



People still convinced that The Lovely Bones will be good (and presumably haven't seen it yet) will vote for him. Meryl Streep MIGHT vote for him.

Also covers nomination for Julie & Juila.



Courtney Love would vote for him if she were an AMPAS member.

Also covers nomination for Zombieland. Maybe 2012 as well?



Probably no one will vote for him, including Ben Affleck, unless this picture convinces some gays.

Also covers nomination for The Informant!


Next up: Best Supporting Actress!

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Monday, February 15, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Actress in a Leading Role



The most open of all the acting races (though that may not be saying much).

1. Sandra Bullock - 60%
2. Gabourey Sidibe - 25%
3. Meryl Streep - 10%
4. Carey Mulligan - 5%
5. Helen Mirren - 0%






We never ever saw it coming at all. Her chances went from a laughable suggestion to a weirdo wtf scenario to a Golden Globe nominee lock, to an Oscar nominee lock, to the frontrunner to win the whole thing. She benefits from a relatively open race, strong box office numbers, a beloved unrecognized personality, and the backlash of Mama Meryl Streep. We'll get to Streep's story, but once people stopped accepting the narrative of her inevitable third win Bullock swooped in and filled that vacuum by being tied with her at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards, then winning the Golden Globe alongside her and then finally actually beating her at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards. Many predicted Bullock for the SAG with the rationale that Streep had won last year, but I'm not so sure that in such a widely dispersed group as the Screen Actor's Guild that they pay attention to such trends. The Blind Side, a box office sensation pulling in strong numbers against Avatar from Midwestern crowds, will not be eligible for the BAFTA. So whoever wins the BAFTA could be very misleading and we will have no idea of their chances against Bullock. But after pulling in an actual Best Picture nomination for the the poorly reviewed Blind Side, showing a clear overwhelming love for the persona of Bullock alone, heavily hitting the campaign trail in an "aw shucks there's no way I'll win" strategy that emphasizes her reputed humility that seems to be working, she is in a decidedly strong position as the frontrunner to win this. A few things that could hurt her include some not taking her as seriously as others, the mixed response to her film itself and the backlash that film could receive as a result of the Bullock love. As a result, some might be saying "enough is enough."



It might seem ridiculous to some, but I do put Sidibe as having the best shot at overcoming Bullock. She's in the only real contender for the Best Picture prize, making her way through the promotional trail, having whoever witnesses her interviews fall in love with her at first sight, and only further emphasizes how good her performance in Precious was. The film is clearly beloved, hitting all the markers a film needs — Picture, Director, Screenplay, 2 acting nominations and Editing. None of the other films that hit all these markers – Hurt Locker or Basterds — even have more than one acting mention, showing some love among the acting branch (which is ever so important). She doesn't have any major trophies to her name, but at this point in this game that seems rather unimportant since no one aside from Bullock really does hold any meaningful award to their name. Going purely based on buzz, Sidibe is easily lovable and has proven to be talented — going on to win auditions in major roles (particularly a Showtime pilot with a highly decorated crew) and proving that she might actually be able to make an unlikely career for herself. She would be the main beneficiary of any Bullock backlash and be yet another excuse to reward the adored Precious.



And so we move on to the marvelous Meryl Streep (forgive me for quoting Sylvester Stallone). Earlier in the year, Streep won critics' praise and big box office numbers for capturing the purely infectious joy of an ideal Julia Childs. Throughout the awards season she became an unlikely critics sweeper of the awards, usually that distinction going to a less mainstream film, but it seemed like nothing was stopping her from steamrolling her way to an overdue third win (which you can't say for a lot of people). But, unfortunately for poor Meryl who said she would for once actually like to win again after so many years of showing up to these events, those very critics awards made her peak too soon. Eventually people were tiring of her steamroll and Bullock took the spotlight. What she needed was major Hollywood attention after a relative critic's drought like Jeff Bridges. Otherwise, it's easy to get sick of you. She could win the BAFTA (but probably won't), but up against Bullock it seems as if her more light hearted performance in Julia & Julia simply won't cut it this year.



Carey Mulligan won praises from Sundance alongside Precious for her "coming of age/star is born" turn as Jenny in An Education. Slated to sweep the critics awards this year and potentially go on to win her Oscar, this quieter movie never quite made a splash. She won a fair share of critics awards, usually smaller ones, and the ones she did seemed to lack in star charisma and good speech making abilities unlike her seemingly much less likely to be a star counterpart Sidibe. She will probably win her BAFTA, as her film was beloved by them bestowed with eight nominations. However, the British passion didn't quite translate in terms of Oscar as the film only received a grand total of three nominations, suggesting less passion even among the Brits for this film as previously thought. If she loses the BAFTA, her chances are essentially caput.



Helen Mirren made a splash with this film at the Rome Film Festival, with some commentators claiming that she could "wipe the floor" with this category's competition if the film were released this year. Well, the film was released this year, but the distribution was rather botched and no one seemed to see this movie. She was seen as safe for this slot for a while until the end when it suddenly became very vulnerable, but it seems like the older members of the Academy who managed to catch this one were impressed enough by the film and its two central performances in Mirren and Plummer to give both these veterans nominations. Mirren is hardly overdue, but leftover good will from her monstrous Queen sweep in the 06-07 awards season (easily the "winningest" performance in contemporary awards history) got her this nomination.


Next up: Best Actor in a Supporting Role!
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Sunday, February 14, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Actor in a Leading Role



This one's pretty sewn up as well.

1. Jeff Bridges - 84%
2. Jeremy Renner - 7%
3. Colin Firth - 5%
4. George Clooney - 3%
5. Morgan Freeman - 1%






I may very well be giving all the other contenders too high of chances, but make no mistake — Jeff Bridges is taking home is very first Oscar statuette this year. Unless there's a sweep, the veteran always gets the upper hand; and damn if they haven't played Bridges "overdue" campaign fantastically. Initially due for release in March of this year, Fox Searchlight decided that with the nosedive of Amelia's Oscar chances and an opening in the Lead Actor race, that they'd release Crazy Heart for eligibility this year. Jeff Bridges has been nominated four times prior (and has been snubbed plenty of other times for a nomination), his first for his work in the devastating American masterpiece The Last Picture Show in 1972. Since then he's never truly been given a chance at the actual win itself, but he gives a performance this year as if he should have more than one on his mantle by now. Classic American storyline with a familiar character arc — down and out former star thirsting for a comeback and reform of his downtrodden life with the help of a young romantic interest. We've seen it with Robert Duvall (who also has a role in this film) in Tender Mercies and Mickey Rourke last year for The Wrestler. The former got his Oscar for it, the second (less seen as "overdue") got awfully close to it. Coming in so late in the game Bridges doesn't have many critics awards to his name apart from the ever important Los Angeles prize; but he's sweeping in the awards that matter. It started with the Golden Globes — standing ovation from all the Academy voters and insiders in the room. Critics Choice Awards — another standing ovation. Screen Actor's Guild Award — standing ovation. I predict he'll continue on his march by grabbing the BAFTA and climaxing on Academy night when Kate Winslet will grant him his well deserved Oscar.



Renner is in the Best Picture favorite of the year, the only nominee amongst the rest whose film has a remote chance at clinching Best Picture. His performance is surely a subtle turn, but one that articulates Bigelow's character study vision wonderfully. He's the lone ranger figure in this war, purely Americana, but surely psychologically flawed. His win would be the most comparable to an Brodyesque win of the year (as in, Adrien Brody). He has the best chance at riding the tide of Hurt Locker love to an upset, but with no other real precursor love (apart from being nominated for all that he needed to), I wouldn't count on it.



Quite easily my favorite of the nominees, and favorite of the year, Colin Firth in A Single Man puts in so much of himself and his purely recognizable Firthian charm that was both excellently transformational as this gay professor in the 60s but also so courageously himself pushed forward in a soul bearing and emotionally vulnerable state of mind. His character transitions into the darkest of human depths within single scenes and single shots. He doesn't "gay" it up like past winners portraying gay men, he just treats it like any other sexuality. It's an enormous accomplishment, and people do love the performance. He's hit all the nominated precursors that he had to, and New York Magazine's article on the Oscar campaign race quoted voters as saying that they surely would have voted for him had overdue Bridges not been factored into this race. He's nominated for a BAFTA award that he stands a fair chance at winning, being nominated three times before without a win (suggesting more of that "overdue" factor in that crucial voting branch, more than previously unnominated Bridges) and holding even more beloved admiration among the British entertainment industry — a formidable voting block in the Academy. He's had buzz ever since his win at the Venice Film Festival earlier in the year. The film, however, was underseen, not admired across the spectrum and clearly not beloved in the Academy given how few nominations it received (had potential for Picture, Julianne Moore, Screenplay, and various techs including Score, Cinematography Costume Design). I could only pray for an upset which would qualify as one of the Academy's most inspired decisions of the decade, but if he's going to lose to anyone then Bridges would be the most deserved of them.



George Clooney gives a fine performance as the heart and soul of Up in the Air, giving the impression of his usual persona at first but then twisting it by the end in such a way that you realize he's taken you on his fully emotional journey with his character through this film. Clooney had gotten a few key critics notices in the beginning of the year, and it seemed like this beloved Hollywood figure could not be stopped. Though there were always questions over whether he was seen as so deserving of a second Oscar so soon after his "overdue" notice in 2004 for Syrianna (one of the weakest Supporting wins of the decade, for my money). His likability in the business has not gone down any, especially with his charity work after the devastating quake in Haiti which gave Hollywood an excuse to pat itself on the back. But especially with Up in the Air's shocking decline in buzz and enthusiasm following its release (vastly overshadowed by Avatar's grotesque box office decimation), Clooney's buzz is practically dead in the water. He was the heart of that movie; and with that movie failing, he does as well. He also stands a chance at that BAFTA, being nominated as many times as Colin Firth without a win with clear admiration for him. With that he might be back in the game, but I would consider him about third in line for that prize.



One of the most anticipated movies of the year that failed to even crack the top 10. So called golden boy Clint Eastwood couldn't muster a nomination for it. Disappointed in box office and critic's response. So why do I give Morgan Freeman a 1% chance of winning? The following voter: "Hm. Morgan Freeman played Nelson Mandela? Well, that sounds like it must have been pretty good." *checks Morgan Freeman's name*

But, his chances are more realistically about 0.5%. I just wanted to round up.

Next Up: Best Actress in a Leading Role!

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Saturday, February 13, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Director



This race is more of less locked at this point.

1. Katheryn Bigelow - 94%
2. Quentin Tarantino - 3%
3. James Cameron - 2%
4. Lee Daniels - 1%
5. Jason Reitman - 0%





The lovely, talented, and strikingly gorgeous Kathryn Bigelow is slated to make history in this category as the very first woman (fourth nominee) to win the coveted prize of Best Director at the Academy Awards. The historical opportunity on her side combined with her Director's Guild prize — which matches up in the Oscars 90% of the time — makes her about as good of a lock as Christoph Waltz or Mo'Nique. Especially important in a year where the directors seem to be the big stars of the show and some of the main attractions of their films, Kathryn Bigelow made a splash at the Venice Film Festival followed by the Toronto Film Festival in 2008. Picked up pitifully by Summit Entertainment, they gave it a terribly unfair release in early June with little to no advertisement, but the critics by the end of the year managed to pick it up and give it a virtual sweep — winning in each of the most prestigious of all the guilds (New York, Los Angeles, and the National Society of Film Critics). And even if the movie didn't win a critic's group top prize, chances are they allotted their Best Director award to Ms. Bigelow. Why? First of all, she directs this movie with such a tight control that makes the audience a nervous wreck from opening shot to the very last second. She goes in as close to the events in the war with just as much care and recklessness as her characters on the ground are doing, producing a war movie that is as much badass and thrilling (seemingly male-centric) entertainment as it is a gritty psychological character study of the Iraq War and its effects on soldiers. Watching it, you would never suspect that it was a ravishing woman of (somehow) 60 years behind the camera, but no matter the sex this piece was a directorial triumph and a standout piece of craftsmanship to close the decade.



Quentin Tarantino's perhaps the single most internationally recognized "auteur" out of American cinema. Directing the Palme D'Or winner of 1994, Pulp Fiction, he forever changed the way the industry made movies and became definitive of 90s cinema. His films to this day inspire the most passion for genuine cinema out of many generations of moviegoers and he has never succeeded at doing that better than with his latest work Inglourious Basterds. Making money at the box office, it has the distinction of being both a box office sensation (like Avatar) and a cinematic war wonder (like The Hurt Locker). Not to mention also a dark comedy (like Up in the Air). It's a happy medium of all the nominations, and heavily respected. Vote splitting of any kind can go in his favor, especially with the uber powerful Harvey Weinstein throwing him in the promotional rounds for the film throughout the awards season and putting all his money on this horse to succeed. "It's his time," says Weinstein, referring to Tarantino. He may just be right. But a (rather overdue) second screenplay win for him seems to be more in the cards, and a consolation prize for his towering achievement.



James Cameron has seemingly done the impossible — in a short two months, he's managed to top his own box office record with Avatar already being the highest grossing film of all time, a position held for well over a decade by his previous film Titanic. Then again, this is taking into account inflated ticket prices for 3D and not really ranking among the highest theater attendance for a film throughout a history, a position that will seemingly forever be held by Gone with the Wind. But, anyways, Titanic came with a whopping 11 Academy Awards including three prizes for him, the same number he's nominated for this year (Picture, Director, Editing). However, accepting his Oscar for Best Director back in 1998, he came across as self-obsessed and rather smug. This year he hasn't done himself many more favors, either, with much stronger backlash against he and his film already that took a lot longer to sink in with Titanic (haha, sinking pun). The film has no major guild prize to its name and voters would be hard pressed to vote for this already 3 time winner over his amicably ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow.



The nomination of Lee Daniels is another historic one in the Academy lineup this year. Only the second black director to be nominated, only the second black gay director to be nominated. His film the first by a black director to receive a nomination for Best Picture. He brilliantly maneuvers his film from lightness to the darkest depths of human cruelty eventually to a message of hope in bleak times. As Helen Mirren so accurately described, its "raw poetry," and combined with the monumental performances he managed to pull out from his stars, it is in my opinion the single strongest directorial work this year. That being said, his direction is easily the most divisive aspect of the film, and many suspected it would be an uphill climb for him to receive this nomination (let alone win). In my mind Precious has been proven loved enough by the Academy that he probably is not the last person on the list, and he probably has a better shot at the award than online critics give him credit for in their worthless blogs. That being said, his shot at this prize is sadly not very high at all.



Jason Reitman once shocked the world back in 2008 with a Best Director nomination for the 2007 smash hit Juno. At the time seen as a confusing nomination for a film that did not seem very heavily directed, we can now reflect upon just how refreshing it was to see a very freshly directed comedy recognized in an organization generally seen as biased against comedies. He accomplished this well deserved nomination just as his film was hitting a pinnacle of awards attention and box office success, a peak which Up in the Air (kind of) experienced a few months ago. At this point, he was very vulnerable and see him as being in the most vulnerable spot of this lineup. The enthusiasm for the film has waned and his praises have been directed more at his writing than his directing. Once again in a year of compromises — where each director's strongest areas of accomplishments will probably get recognition — Jason Reitman will be rewarded for his sharp screenplay. Just as Quentin Tarantino will for his writing, Bigelow will for her directing, Cameron will with his film's visual effects and Daniels will in the form of recognition of his actresses and the performances he was able to pull out of them.

Next up: Best Actor in a Leading Role!

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Friday, February 12, 2010

MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Picture


Clearly overdue, I realize. I apologize. But here's a series that will assure more consistent posting on my behalf showing how I'd rank the chances each respective nominee has of winning in each of the major categories.

Best Picture:
1. The Hurt Locker - 75%
2. Inglourious Basterds - 15%
3. Precious - 7%
4. Avatar - 3%
5. Up in the Air - 0%
6. Up - 0%
7. District 9 - 0%
8. An Education - 0%
9. A Serious Man - 0%

10. The Blind Side - 0%


Something all Best Picture winners seem to need are nominations in directing, acting, writing and editing. Each like a checkmark, and if you have all of those then you're more or less set. You don't need EVERY single one (Slumdog went without any acting nominations, as did Lord of the Rings. Titanic didn't have a Screenplay nomination. There's hardly a nominee as obvious as any of those were, though). Three of these ten nominees has managed to crack all the bases — The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Precious. In alphabetical order and that's the order I imagine are in the top 3 in contention to win.


It's hard to argue with a PGA, DGA, likely WGA and nominations in the SAG. This is The Hurt Locker. It would be the lowest grossing nominee at the box office to win in many many years, and I'd imagine the least grossing if you take inflation into account. That being said, if it had been released at this time of year then it would certainly get the box office bump that most Best Picture contenders released later in the year do, as it is doing very well in DVD sales. People are seeing this movie. Critics hail it as among the best of the decade. It is at the historic helm of a woman who many in the Academy have fallen in love with and would love to have her break their glass ceiling. Quentin Tarantino calls Katheryn Bigelow that "Queen of directors." It tied a movie with the enormous scope and size of Avatar to have the most nominees this year — much more than expected. The DGA winner aligns with the Best Director winner at the Oscars 90% of the time — which usually correlates to a joint Picture win. At the same time, the DGA is often better at predicting the Best Picture winner.
Thus, I place The Hurt Locker as a heavy odds-on favorite to win the whole thing.



Runner up, I'd imagine, is potentially Quentin Tarantino's masterpiece — Inglourious Basterds. After finally letting go hopes of Nine, Harvey Weinstein is going balls out on this one; asserting that the film will most certainly win the whole thing and blitzkrieging AMPAS voters with cheap DVD copies of the film (as was always going to be the plan). Billboard signs and entertainment magazine advertisements right and left, with the star of the show — Quentin Tarantino — making the rounds on the campaign trail. Quentin Tarantino restored some prestige, respect and honor to his name after a divisive decade of film making with this film — his highest grossing and most honored since Pulp Fiction. In fact, with 8 nominations and the second most nominated of the year, it surpasses Fiction in nominee count and Tarantino is likely to deliver his very first actor to an actual Oscar statuette (Christoph Waltz, obviously) after 4 previous actors of his being nominated in the past. Actors, in fact, really like this film, rewarding it with the Screen Actor's Guild Ensemble prize which has, as of late, been akin to more of a Best Picture prize on behalf of the SAG (rewarding more prestige pics rather than Ensemble pieces along the lines of Slumdog Millionaire and No Country for Old Men; luckily, Inglourious Basterds is also a clearly strong Ensemble piece). And, might I remind everyone, actors make up the largest constituency out of all the branches of the Academy. Actor support, as well as the always loyal group of Tarantino fans in the industry, and most others who seem to at least respect the film. The new method of preferential ballot count that rewards consensus over passion can really help Basterds in this regard, especially since it seems to have both consensus and passion. With a lock in an acting category and frontrunner in the writing category, Inglourious Basterds surely has the biggest chance of upsetting in this race.



Third out of the three frontrunners in this race, in my opinion, is Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire. Many have argued, especially recently, that Precious peaked far too early and lost enough steam to make an impact on the Oscars. True, it peaked too early for it to make an impact on the award's season in general, but it was still a clearly visible force and always had its supporters. Its backlash came from internet bloggers who might hold some sway in early precursor moods but never in the longrun of the actual Academy Awards. At this point, Precious has the luck of having had peaked early enough to have its backlash wear away as was clear with these nominations. Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing. Many people asserted that Precious would not have cracked a top five, that Lee Daniels would miss out on a Director mention, and most people thought it had no chance at Editing. Precious managed to prove the naysaying internet community wrong, as it would most certainly have made the top 5 and even had enough support to get the shock, and crucial, Editing nomination (without which a film has not won since 1981. Among those films, the ill fated Brokeback Mountain). Editors seem to have important sway in the Academy, the directors thought Lee Daniels did a fine job (I love how anti-fanbots try to discredit his direction as if THEY know the fine craft of directorial duties), the ever important acting branch found it worthy of two acting mentions, and the film has been nominated for every single important Guild award — PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA. Mo'Nique has been a lock to win since its premiere last February at Sundance, an astounding staying power of buzz despite many angry demands to not reward her for her so called "diva" behavior (or more like everyone's racially predisposed biases against someone like Mo'Nique being taken seriously). Similarly to the history making of The Hurt Locker, Precious is the first Best Picture nominee directed by an African American and Lee Daniels is only the second African American nominee ever for Best Director (and funnily enough, also the second gay black director). He doesn't have much of a shot at breaking that glass ceiling as Bigelow does, but the race is certainly open in Adapted Screenplay and Gabourey Sidibe has a chance of breaking through the only semi-open acting category this year in Lead Actress. Lionsgate is going executing an excellent strategy at making the energetic and enormously lovable Sidibe the face of the Precious campaign, as she's been going around the interview and promotional circuit since the release of the film and will continue through the awards season — which will also impress Academy voters to see how she really is as opposed to how she performed in the film. That's enough chances in enough major categories to upset for the top prize.



Here is where we start to get to the scenarios of the negatives outweighing the positive. I give Avatar a 5% chance of winning which might surprise some people and you might be able to blame on my own biases against the film, but I only give it even that much of a chance due to its loyal fan following. Just looking at the figures, it doesn't seem to have much of a statistical shot at winning. People pointing to box office as evidence of the film's chances are kidding themselves — it could help that everyone's seen it, but at the same time that could hurt it. There are enough detractors to this film, particularly in the huge acting branch who don't want the industry to shift to motion capturing, that in the preferential system of balloting will rank Avatar as lowly as possible in order for its votes to get bogged down. It has the passion but unfortunately, it just doesn't have the consensus. Yes, it is the highest grossing film of the year — bar none. But if you look at the past string of winners, you'll notice that they haven't been the box office champs in their respective years. I can point to Titanic and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King as the highest grossing in their respective years, but none of the other Best Picture winners in between them. Not to mention, both won more Oscars than poor Avatar has even been nominated for. Avatar couldn't even break the double digit count and only comes out as the most nominated film of the year with 9 tied with The Hurt Locker — a film on a drastically lesser scope and built on a shoestring budget. Not like Avatar. It didn't even get a nomination for the SAG Ensemble prize, and no film other than Bravehart in the Guild's (albeit, short) awards history has been able to win Best Picture without a nomination there. No film since Grand Hotel in 1932 has managed to win Best Picture without nominations in screenplay or acting. Avatar has neither of those. Avatar lost the Producer's Guild Award that it was heavily expected to clinch, and has no shot at winning any other guild. No film has ever managed to win without a single Guild win to its name since the inception of the SAG awards in the early 90s. James Cameron hasn't been doing himself any favors, either, coming across as only more snug than his Titanic days with a new hairdo that makes him look like George Washington's lesbian sister. The numbers are simply not on Avatar's side.




The case of Up in the Air is a tragic one, really, marking the first of the remaining six contenders that I give as having literally no shot whatsoever at winning the top prize. As opposed to Precious, Up in the Air peaked at absolutely the worst possible time. And by the time it was supposed to peak, most of its buzz was eaten away by the monstrosity of Avatar's box office performance. Despite 3 nominations, the SAG did not give it its Ensemble nomination akin to Best Picture. As we mentioned in the paragraph above, that is crucial. I do suspect that Jason Reitman was actually the most vulnerable of the five directors nominated. George Clooney looked to have been sweeping his way through the precursors to the Oscars until Jeff Bridges suddenly came in as a last minute contender as Fox Searchlight moved Crazy Heart to open in time for eligibility, sensing an opening in that race. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga both split a certain constituency of voters and would not have a shot against the towering presence of Mo'Nique, anyhow. And, most devastating blow of all, the visibly edited Up in the Air did not get a mention in Best Editing (losing out to Precious showing more passion for that film than this). Without even the passionate fans that are possessed by Avatar, international inaccessibility, and odds of winning nothing more than a consolation Screenplay prize, I'd say Up in the Air is dead in the water.



Now as we exit the inevitable top 5 and go into the worthless 6-10 slots, I figure the one that is the most universally admired and would benefit the most from preferential voting is Up. Still, though, it isn't even that much more admired than the other fantastic animated offerings of the year, and many still would rather see animated restricted to its Oscar ghetto of Best Animated Feature, and not count among the top pool of live action offerings. In any case, the safe nomination for Up was more of a make up for the universally adored Pixar studios and paves the way for a Pixar film to one day win the whole thing — something WALL·E deserved to accomplish last year. It'll get its prize in the Best Animated Feature category and for its already iconic score by the overdue Michael Giacchino.



District 9 is the alternative sci-fi offering made on a third of the budget of Avatar — just with more original social commentary and much better writing. And, I would argue, more realistically integrated visual effects. Many detractors of Avatar will try to rank District 9 a lot higher in order to influence the results of the preferential ballot, and though a lot must respect it, it doesn't have quite enough love it for it to be in real contention for the win.



An Education certainly thrives on the love of it in the British constituency, making up a surprising voting block in the Academy. Tipping the balance in favor of underdogs like Tilda Swinton, Marion Cotillard, and Alan Arkin in the past, if a movie is very well received than it will certainly make a splash in the Oscars (at least in terms of the nominations). This is hardly Atonement, however, which won the top BAFTA prize and made it into the top 5 in Best Picture that year with 7 nominations total, the British love for An Education seemed only to extend as far as 3 nominations (as opposed to 8 BAFTA mentions). This suggests to me that it is very weak, that Carey Mulligan is a much weaker contender than we all thought in the beginning of the race, and that it probably won't even manage to top out in the BAFTA ceremony this year. Depending on its success there, this could be pushed even higher — but more likely I'll push it even lower.



A Serious Man (or, Life Sucks) has its supporters, surely at least among the Jewish contingent in Hollywood, but most of the passion comes from the writing branch and not much else. With one of two movies with the distinction of having only one other nomination other than Picture, this (sadly) ain't goin anywhere.




The Blind Side is the luckiest of the nominees to be here. Characteristic of the criticisms/praises that the extended Best Picture slots allows for lesser prestige pics and more mainstream fare to make it in the top 10, this film made it on the love and passion for Sandra Bullock's performance which is the only other nomination this film managed to muster. With some backlash already going against Sandra Bullock as a result of this film's ride on her tidal wave of love, I would imagine this being at the bottom of the pile.

Next up: Directors
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