MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

Most open race there is.

1. Inglourious Basterds - 49%
2. The Hurt Locker - 47%
3. Up - 3%
4. A Serious Man - 1%
5. The Messenger - 0%






Inglourious Basterds has the frontrunner status here as its potential consolation prize — aside from Christoph Waltz. More of a consolation prize for Tarantino himself, who has made (in my opinion) consistently worthy movies since his last Oscar fifteen years ago for Pulp Fiction without recognition. It's about on an even keel with The Hurt Locker in a potential sweep to give that movies as many wins as possible; but Inglourious Basterds has enough Oscar support (eight nominations), actor support (SAG Ensemble win) and even theories of winning the whole thing thanks to Harvey Weinstein blitzkrieging Los Angeles with campaign advertising and screener releases for this film.




But, of course, it's very very tight. The Writer's Guild Awards this weekend will hardly give us an indication, unless The Hurt Locker loses which would essentially ruin its chances (which it won't, though, since its the only WGA nomination from this list). Thanks to the disqualification of 7 out of the 10 movies nominated in both screenplay categories, The Hurt Locker seems slated to win the WGA without disqualified Basterds in the competition. It could very well follow suit at the Oscars if that helps its screenplay to build buzz, and the WGA winners have matched up for each of the past five years worth of winners. But with the safely solid support Basterds holds at the helm of writing superstar Quentin Tarantino, that gives it the slightest inch of advantage over this screenplay by writing nobody Mark Boal.





Up follows the tradition of Pixar films getting nominated in Screenplay but holds the distinction of being the first to be nominated in Picture, as well. This seems like an opportune time to finally reward Pixar in this category where they've consecutively deserved it these past two years with both Ratatouille (by Brad Bird) and WALL·E (by Andrew Stanton). With the behemoth front two competitors ahead of it though for a screenplay by Pete Docter which is perhaps less deserving than those mentioned two, it's a terribly steep uphill climb. Though, I guess I wouldn't say impossible. The scene I provided here proves the screenplay's sheer irresistible charm at the film's highest points.




The Coen brothers managed to nab a Picture nomination in conjunction with A Serious Man's screenplay nomination due, probably, to the loyalty and love from the writing branch. They don't always go for the Coens but this is a brilliantly written and thematically dense contribution by the brothers which the writing branch can't resist. Unfortunately, the writing branch does not solely get to vote in this category — and the hard to access "Coeny" nature of the movie will not get enough widespread support to take this one all the way.




It barely got into that last nomination slot and only has one other nomination for Woody Harrelson (when it had the potential to grab slots in Picture and Supporting Actress). This seems like a film at least admired by those who've seen it, but a) that's not a big group in itself and b) not loved enough by even that group to take it all the way to a win. It would be a shocker of all-time status.

Up next: Best Adapted Screenplay!