The most open of all the acting races (though that may not be saying much).
1. Sandra Bullock - 60%
2. Gabourey Sidibe - 25%
3. Meryl Streep - 10%
4. Carey Mulligan - 5%
5. Helen Mirren - 0%
We never ever saw it coming at all. Her chances went from a laughable suggestion to a weirdo wtf scenario to a Golden Globe nominee lock, to an Oscar nominee lock, to the frontrunner to win the whole thing. She benefits from a relatively open race, strong box office numbers, a beloved unrecognized personality, and the backlash of Mama Meryl Streep. We'll get to Streep's story, but once people stopped accepting the narrative of her inevitable third win Bullock swooped in and filled that vacuum by being tied with her at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards, then winning the Golden Globe alongside her and then finally actually beating her at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards. Many predicted Bullock for the SAG with the rationale that Streep had won last year, but I'm not so sure that in such a widely dispersed group as the Screen Actor's Guild that they pay attention to such trends. The Blind Side, a box office sensation pulling in strong numbers against Avatar from Midwestern crowds, will not be eligible for the BAFTA. So whoever wins the BAFTA could be very misleading and we will have no idea of their chances against Bullock. But after pulling in an actual Best Picture nomination for the the poorly reviewed Blind Side, showing a clear overwhelming love for the persona of Bullock alone, heavily hitting the campaign trail in an "aw shucks there's no way I'll win" strategy that emphasizes her reputed humility that seems to be working, she is in a decidedly strong position as the frontrunner to win this. A few things that could hurt her include some not taking her as seriously as others, the mixed response to her film itself and the backlash that film could receive as a result of the Bullock love. As a result, some might be saying "enough is enough."
It might seem ridiculous to some, but I do put Sidibe as having the best shot at overcoming Bullock. She's in the only real contender for the Best Picture prize, making her way through the promotional trail, having whoever witnesses her interviews fall in love with her at first sight, and only further emphasizes how good her performance in Precious was. The film is clearly beloved, hitting all the markers a film needs — Picture, Director, Screenplay, 2 acting nominations and Editing. None of the other films that hit all these markers – Hurt Locker or Basterds — even have more than one acting mention, showing some love among the acting branch (which is ever so important). She doesn't have any major trophies to her name, but at this point in this game that seems rather unimportant since no one aside from Bullock really does hold any meaningful award to their name. Going purely based on buzz, Sidibe is easily lovable and has proven to be talented — going on to win auditions in major roles (particularly a Showtime pilot with a highly decorated crew) and proving that she might actually be able to make an unlikely career for herself. She would be the main beneficiary of any Bullock backlash and be yet another excuse to reward the adored Precious.
And so we move on to the marvelous Meryl Streep (forgive me for quoting Sylvester Stallone). Earlier in the year, Streep won critics' praise and big box office numbers for capturing the purely infectious joy of an ideal Julia Childs. Throughout the awards season she became an unlikely critics sweeper of the awards, usually that distinction going to a less mainstream film, but it seemed like nothing was stopping her from steamrolling her way to an overdue third win (which you can't say for a lot of people). But, unfortunately for poor Meryl who said she would for once actually like to win again after so many years of showing up to these events, those very critics awards made her peak too soon. Eventually people were tiring of her steamroll and Bullock took the spotlight. What she needed was major Hollywood attention after a relative critic's drought like Jeff Bridges. Otherwise, it's easy to get sick of you. She could win the BAFTA (but probably won't), but up against Bullock it seems as if her more light hearted performance in Julia & Julia simply won't cut it this year.
Carey Mulligan won praises from Sundance alongside Precious for her "coming of age/star is born" turn as Jenny in An Education. Slated to sweep the critics awards this year and potentially go on to win her Oscar, this quieter movie never quite made a splash. She won a fair share of critics awards, usually smaller ones, and the ones she did seemed to lack in star charisma and good speech making abilities unlike her seemingly much less likely to be a star counterpart Sidibe. She will probably win her BAFTA, as her film was beloved by them bestowed with eight nominations. However, the British passion didn't quite translate in terms of Oscar as the film only received a grand total of three nominations, suggesting less passion even among the Brits for this film as previously thought. If she loses the BAFTA, her chances are essentially caput.
Helen Mirren made a splash with this film at the Rome Film Festival, with some commentators claiming that she could "wipe the floor" with this category's competition if the film were released this year. Well, the film was released this year, but the distribution was rather botched and no one seemed to see this movie. She was seen as safe for this slot for a while until the end when it suddenly became very vulnerable, but it seems like the older members of the Academy who managed to catch this one were impressed enough by the film and its two central performances in Mirren and Plummer to give both these veterans nominations. Mirren is hardly overdue, but leftover good will from her monstrous Queen sweep in the 06-07 awards season (easily the "winningest" performance in contemporary awards history) got her this nomination.
Next up: Best Actor in a Supporting Role!
No comments:
Post a Comment