MOB: BAFTA predictions!

This could be very difficult to figure out and very aggravating once the results are announced. But it's crucial and oftentimes a deciding factor in a close race due to the strength in the British Academy of Film and Television Association's numbers in AMPAS overlap. And this year, it's a bit more complicated than the sewn up Academy races.

That being said, sometimes there is a clear home field bias (though much less so than the American Academy's).



Best Film
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Up In The Air

Best Film is actually where we might see the biggest upset. Many people expect home town favorite An Education, which tied Avatar and The Hurt Locker for 8 nominations. History with films like The Queen and Atonement winning the top prize would support this theory (and Slumdog, but everyone went universally gaga for that one), however, all those films managed at least seven nominations in the actual Academy (and, I would argue, much to the strength of British love for those films). An Education only managed a grand total of three nominations. Which, in my mind, might show love for An Education but not quite enough passion.

Other options include The Hurt Locker, which could add another award atop Queen Kathryn's pile. That being said, BAFTAs tend to split Picture/Director quite often, particularly when it comes to Academy favorites. The year Return of the King swept all the awards, Peter Jackson lost Best Director. The year No Country for Old Men dominated the domestic guilds, the Coen brothers only came out with Best Director. The only lack of splits (since 1999 when the BAFTAs became relevant to awards seasons announcing before the Oscars) were with The Fellowship of the Ring, The Pianist, Brokeback Mountain and Slumdog Millionaire. The first somehow managed to not get that kind of passion in the states and the latter we've already determined was a freak-incident where we witnessed the single "winningest" film in contemporary awards history.
But, anyways, in the tradition of these splits — it seems as if The Hurt Locker might just have too much of that gritty "American" feel to reward with their top prize along with Best Director.

The final frontrunner seems to be Avatar, here, who punditry king I worship David Karger predicts to take it. Though...I question that. It just...doesn't seem up their aisle. It did break the British box office record just as it did any other, but so did Mamma Mia! last year. And Titanic before it, which also went empty handed at the BAFTAs. But I do suppose it could be a possibility, and I see it more or less sweeping their techs which could prove a deciding factor.
The only other options are Precious and Up in the Air, both of which I'm surprised made it over Inglourious Basterds. I'm not quite sure if they have the potential to overtake any of the three previously mentioned, but as I did mention — they all have seemingly significant cons. Those two, though, seem to have more on a cultural and mathematical level. No director nominations, less nominations than any of the other mentioned, and both (in my mind) seem to have distinctly American qualities to them that I don't imagine would translate well across the pond. Precious was not nearly as well received by critics over there as it was here, and traditionally BAFTA never seemed to go as crazy for the racially themed films. Up in the Air deals with a time and personality distinctly a window of contemporary America, as well, and not one that seems to be greeted with widespread enthusiasm anywhere outside of this country.
But, if the cons of all the others weigh them down — you really never know. A Precious win here could just make things in the actual BP race legitimately crazy.

Final Prediction, gun to my head: The Hurt Locker



Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Neill Blomkamp, District 9
Lone Scherfig, An Education
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

This isn't as clear cut as you might think it is, either. In my last rant I went on the foregone conclusion that Bigelow has the biggest shot here, which I'd argue that she does. However...let's take the flip side of what I argued there — if The Hurt Locker is about to win Best Film, then...history tells us that it will probably split with Director. And it's not as if that the clear directing heavyweights like the Coen brothers always win, as we saw with Peter Jackson's loss in 2004. Cameron may follow the string of his film's inevitable tech sweep, or even Scherfig will continue the "historical female" thing and give her the biggest recognition of An Education — as compromise of sorts for not giving it their top prize due to a lack of passion (but obvious respect for it). Another potential wildcard? Tarantino (pictured above). Perfectly possible. Many of the Director wins go to these seemingly celebrity auteurs like Almodovar, Polanski, Weir, Greengras — a club Tarantino seems more than suited for (regardless of his film not being nominated in the vein of Greengras).
Blomkamp doesn't really have a chance, but I guess I legitimately can't put anyone in the 0% club with an award as crazy as BAFTA.

Final Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow



Leading Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Andy Serkis, Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll

Another race, another possibility to go any which way. The two strongest competitors for this however, in my mind, seem to be Bridges and Firth. But Bridges doesn't exactly have the same narrative to win the BAFTA as he does for the Oscars. This is actually his first BAFTA nomination, and the most he might have been overdue for is a nomination. However, the performance itself is strong enough to win on its own merits. But if Bridges is an American institution, its really easy to call Firth (pictured above) a British Institution. Beloved by the BAFTA, this will be his fourth nomination (akin to Bridges for the Oscars), not even winning for his star making turn in Pride & Prejudice. Another performance that would deserve a win on its own merits in a film strong yet not loved enough to crack many more nominations.
Going by the overdue argument, though, this is George Clooney sixth motherfuckin nomination, fourth for acting. No wins. Yet, he's still plenty loved by the Europeans. Perhaps he'll be the happy medium that will steal the award away from both of them? Given the lack of enthusiasm I suspect for the film, however, I'm not willing to hedge my bets on it.
A Renner win here could be a game changer. Let's put Serkis in the 0% club.

Final Prediction: Jeff Bridges



Leading Actress
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel

The fight here is between Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep. Without what I see as a "fuck it" win for Sandra Bullock possible (The Bind Side wasn't released in time for eligibility), either one of these actresses can take it. For a long time this seemed like another foregone conclusion to go to British sweetiepie Mulligan (pictured above) in a baitily British An Education, for which this can be yet another possible consolation prize for the beloved film. If she beats Streep here, any chances Meryl had for the Oscar are caput. However, she stands a formidable chance of winning playing the overdue card. Since the turn of the decade, she's actually been nominated for more BAFTAs than Oscars (inconceivable, right?!) and also has not won a BAFTA since the early 80s (and no, not for Sophie's Choice).
And a Sidibe win here could shake things up. The only one, I think, who can muster an upset against Bullock at the Oscars, Sidibe is in a film which — let's face it — was loved enough by the BAFTA to muster a Best Film nomination even if it doesn't seem to be their "cup of tea," if you will. I'd say she doesn't have as much of a shot against Mulligan or Streep, but a fair shot nevertheless.
This isn't Ronan's first nomination, either, but there's no indication that they were any big fan of The Lovely Bones and she's much too young. And, let's put Tatou in the 0% club.

Final Prediction: Carey Mulligan



Let's not kid ourselves about the Supporting races. Brit veteran Molina might siphon some votes away but not enough to overcome Waltz. Mo'Nique's only competition are women sharing nominations with their co-stars that will split whatever few votes they may have, as liked as Kristin Scott Thomas may be in the BAFTA.

Final Prediction: Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique



Original Screenplay
The Hangover (Jon Lucas, Scott Moore)
The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
A Serious Man (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
Up (Bob Peterson, Pete Docter)

Of course this can go any which way as well, but it's probably equal to the Academy in that it's a race of Mark Boal (pictured above with director Bigelow) vs. Quentin Tarantino. The Hurt Locker has the Best Film nomination as an advantage over it, but if they want to reward Quentin Tarantino at all (a prospect I mentioned with his Director chances) than this would probably be a much more convenient place to do it. They like the Coen brothers but they only tend to win when it's "their" year (a la Fargo and No Country for Old Men), and Up has a tiny sliver of a deserved chance. Let's not mention that other possibility, yucko.

Final Prediction: Inglourious Basterds



Adapted Screenplay
District 9 (Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell)
An Education (Nick Hornby)
In The Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche)
Precious (Geoffrey Fletcher)
Up In The Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)

Here our options are a bit more open. Up in the Air could be a consolation prize, here, as it likely will be for the Academy when they recognize Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (both pictured above). However, I don't quite see the film itself as being deemed that important to give a Screenplay win to, and I think it might be between the two British scripts of the nominees: An Education and In the Loop. In the Loop hilariously showcases strictly British humor in this political satire, and they will probably go apeshit over it. However, Nick Hornby is very respected (and not just in Britain), and I think this is another award that An Education will add to its pile.
If Precious shockingly sweeps, it'll take this one. But it won't. District 9 has a tiny sliver of a chance, I suppose.

Final Prediction: An Education

So, let's see how that goes!


My full predictions:
Best Film: The Hurt Locker
Best British Film: In the Loop
Best Film Not in the English Language: The White Ribbon
Best Direction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Leading Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Leading Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nick Hornby, An Education
Best Cinematography: Mauro Fiore, Avatar
Best Costume Design: Sandy Powell, The Young Victoria
Best Sound: Christopher Boyes; Gary Summers; Andy Nelson; Tony Johnson; Addison Teague, Avatar
Best Editing: Bob Murawski; Chris Innis, The Hurt Locker
Best Special Visual Effects: Joe Letteri; Stephen Rosenbaum; Richard Baneham; Andy Jones, Avatar
Best Music: Michael Giacchino, Up
Best Animated Film: Up
Best Production Design: Rick Carter; Robert Stromberg; Kim Sinclair, Avatar
Best Make Up & Hair: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Rising Star Award: Kristen Stewart