April Fool's Predictions

I know we just got over Oscar season, but keeping track of the kinds of things being predicted this early in the year does allow one to know which movies to be on the lookout for later this year and judge for yourself. It's also kind of fun just looking back at the end of it to see how wrong you were. So, let's see how wrong I'll be.

I'll only do Picture, Director, and the Acting categories. Because otherwise, naturally, I haven't the slightest clue.

Best Picture:
A Better Life
Beginners
Carnage
A Dangerous Method
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
My Week With Marylin
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Young Adult

When you think of the kinds of things that appeal to the Academy, you have to look at several factors; the pedigree of the director and how dependable their track record is in appealing to the Academy, the actors involved (actors by far making up the largest branch of voters), those behind distribution (I would not predict My Week With Marylin without the Harvey factor), and some wild guesses at the token indie slots. Last year there were two slots for movies that really embodied the indie "spirit" in The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone. One was a gay comedy released in the summer and the other was a quiet and somber study of a lesser represented region of this country also released in the summer in Winter's Bone. In fact, there were four movies nominated last year released in the summer — Inception and Toy Story 3 joining the two indies mentioned. Those were two significant blockbuster films, as there were two blockbuster films nominated the year before in District 9, from that Summer, and, of course, Avatar from that Winter. These predictions include three movies to be released this summer — Beginners, A Better Life, and The Tree of Life; technically all indies, but the latter with something like a $200 million budget. War Horse is another expected blockbuster to be released later in the year.

Beginners, like The Kids Are All Right, is a gay themed comedy. Of course, I'm not only predicting the movie parallel to The Kids Are All Right's nomination last year, but because of the pedigree of the actors — many people would love to see Christopher Plummer not just nominated, but winning while they still have the chance to reward the 81 year old who only just received his first nomination two years ago for The Last Station. Ewan McGregor and Mélanie Laurent have also been in films successful with the Academy before, and with an indie film like this, despite what you might think it takes away from the indie "spirit," you need actors of a certain caliber to bring it Academy attention (as The Kids Are All Right had done with the likes of Annette Bening, Julianne Moore and Mark Ruffalo). A Better Life, I compare to Winter's Bone because of what seems like its subdued nature as well as its dealings with themes of poverty (manifested through the issue of immigration in A Better Life). What convinces me to predict this, again, is not its similarities to Winter's Bone but because of Dave Karger's insistence that it's a film that should appeal to the Academy despite its low key nature. Remember, Dave Karger was at one time the ONLY pundit predicting The King's Speech to win Best Picture which, ultimately, it of course did, while The Social Network had been winning every award known to man until that point.

Meanwhile, The Tree of Life looks slated to take the spot of the summer blockbuster hit that was also critically reviewed assuming Malick does not disappoint with this film that those paying attention have been waiting years for. Another completely possible idea is for the second installment of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, with good enough reviews and even better box office than expected, to take the slot with the help of tech branches trying to reward the very lucrative and iconic series as a whole. There is often, too, an animated feature that could feature in the slot as Toy Story 3 and Up have the past two years and the likes of WALL·E, Ratatouille and Finding Nemo could well have done prior. Funny thing is, those are all Pixar films, and unless Cars 2 highly exceeds the expectations set by their more underwhelming original, I don't think they'll repeat their success this year. And if they can't do it, I don't think any of the other animated films this year will, either. The other blockbuster I am predicting, however, is Steven Spielberg's War Horse. Of a grander scale than anything he's done recently, it seems as though Spielberg can make something serious when he wants to and get it Oscar nominated even though he refuses to campaign. Refusing to campaign, Schindler's List still swept the Oscars. Refusing to campaign, he still won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan. Refusing to campaign, even with lesser reviews and little talk of the possibilities, motherfucking Munich still brought him nominations for both Picture and Director. If he's serious about this, even if it's not that good, I feel like War Horse is very possible to feature in next year's Oscar show.

Going beyond that, of course, is slightly harder to prognosticate. I have My Week With Marylin featured because of an all star cast, a lot of British interest and a Harvey Weinstein endorsement. These are all the same factors evident in The King's Speech, although with less bait-inducing factors to its story (though still perfectly up the Academy's alley). That seems to check off plenty of demographics that one would have to perform strongly with to get nominated. Carnage is the upcoming Roman Polanski film based on the Pulitzer winning play with strong actors — John C. Reilly, Jodie Foster, Kate Winslet and Christoph Waltz — playing strong roles. I expect it to be highly lauded and for the actors and director to bring a lot of attention and adoration for the picture. Many seem eager for David Cronenberg to break through at the Academy Awards, as he's slowly been getting closer to all his career, and seems like it's possible with this year's A Dangerous Method — a biopic featuring Freud and Jung starring an illustrious cast including Viggo Mortensen, Keira Knightley, and Michael Fassbender (who will be in no less than five movies this year and seeming overdue for Hollywood star status after a sudden spout of several great consecutive years of performances). George Clooney also looks slated to have a banner year starring in the ever popular Alexander Payne's upcoming The Descendants, but more importantly acting and directing The Ides of March — another play adaptation with a killer cast (Ryan Gosling, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Clooney, Marisa Tomei) with thinly veiled political messages as well. If you ask me, it could be the film to get Ryan Gosling an Oscar and the whole film could go all the way as well. Clint Eastwood's been less successful with the Academy lately, but he hasn't come up with anything nearly as baity as J. Edgar in a long time with a central performance as Oscar-hungry as DiCaprio's is destined to be. Not to mention a screenplay penned by already Oscar winning Dustin Lance Black, and juicy looking supporting performances by Judi Dench and Armie Hammer. And, last but not least, Young Adult seems like it could be a continuation of Jason Reitman's stunning hot streak of Picture, Director, and performance nominations that seemed at its apex two years ago with Up in the Air.

What are some other possibilities? I'd actually look out for some foreign fare to finally break through in the top 10 with many high profile international filmmakers bringing work out this year. Consider Oscar winner Almodovar's The Skin I Inhabit this year, or Berlin winning Iranian film A Separation which, it seems — thrilling news for me — a new height reached for the Iranian film scene never before matched.

Naturally, the director nominees will come from this list. Who will be the five who stand out? In my opinion:

Best Director:
George Clooney - The Ides of March
Clint Eastwood - J. Edgar
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Roman Polanski - Carnage
Steven Spielberg - War Horse

Of course, though, this list does seem a bit too "all-star." There's usually a Tom Hooper thrown in for good measure. But I'm just going with names I know they love. The director's branch is kind to actors turned directors, and everyone loves George Clooney. They just do. The Academy also loves Eastwood and Spielberg. If Malick hits Tree of Life out of the park then I don't see how he isn't nominated. As for Polanski, well, not only do they love/support him but I think they'll genuinely love the film. Also consider, however, some comedic directors in the form of Alexander Payne for The Descendants or Jason Reitman for Young Adult. Remember, Reitman even got Director nominated for Juno. Juno. Not that it wasn't one of the most refreshing choices of the past decade, but...it's Juno. Director nominated film Juno.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Demián Bichir - A Better Life
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender - A Dangerous Method
Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March
Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

A Better Life is overall a bit of a gamble for me, but as I said, these categories aren't always simply all-star names. And sometimes, if a film really connects with voters, an lesser known central performer will reap the benefits as such. As I said before, DiCaprio is bloodthirsty for an Oscar, Fassbender has five films this year and I can only hope his good talents are finally recognized this year for a baity project, and Gosling looks to be working on a juicy role that he can completely nail (potentially as perfectly as he embodied Dean in Blue Valentine — high praise coming from me, mind you). Gary Oldman, however, is of the perfect age to win an Oscar and many have been astounded for two decades that the man has yet to be nominated. Going simply on technical factors, Oldman would look to be the one to beat. That said, many people are awaiting Johnny Depp (also beloved by the Academy) to even potentially win for The Rum Diaries. Although, if you ask me, the film's delay from last year to this year seems like a bad omen (apparently they didn't want him to compete with himself in The Tourist — color me skeptical). Also, as I mentioned before, if The Skin I Inhabit does well then look for Antonio Banderas to continue Bardem's tradition of nominated spanish speaking roles.

It could be my own favoritism speaking, here, but I think Peter Mullan could very well be the Javier Bardem of this year. That is to say, someone who simply gets in on the merits of their performances being that good. And, if you ask me, Mullan is even better than Bardem was. Although Bardem did have heavy Hollywood support and active campaigning from the likes of Julia Roberts. We'll see, though (he needs critics' support, although I learned last year not to trust them to reward the rightfully inspired performances).

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Jodie Foster - Carnage
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marylin

First, my suspicions: this list skews particularly old. It would be a refreshing change, but the starlets always break through. It's never too young, but consider Sidibe and Mulligan '09. Consider Lawrence and Williams and Portman '10. However, this is a list I have trouble straying from. Glenn Close is consider one of the most overdue actresses for an Oscar win, ever, and in Albert Nobbs she crossdresses in World War II England. Any questions? There shouldn't be any doubt that people desperately want Meryl Streep to win a third Oscar, let alone the one Glenn Close doesn't yet have, as evidenced by her string of consecutive nominations for any vaguely caricature performance a la The Devil Wears Prada, Doubt or Julie & Julia. Each time she ran arguably in second place. Playing Margaret Thatcher, she's one I would think of as even safer for a nomination than Glenn Close (although I don't think she'll win her third until she plays a more natural, humane character a la Adaptation. which I think she can get in a few years with August: Osage County). Jodie Foster will have a very good year also directing The Beaver which, despite the Gibson factor, people seem to be enjoying. Meanwhile she's won two Oscars already and shows no sign of wain in talent, and there's no evidence that she won't give a terrific performance at the hands of the performance maestro who is Roman Polanski. And Charlie Theron would consider the Reitman tradition of nominated central performers – Ellen Page, George Clooney, and now Charlize Theron.

And then there's Michelle Williams. In my opinion, undoubtedly the most talented actress of her generation. No one her age has given a performance as good as Brokeback Mountain, or Wendy & Lucy, or (and especially) Blue Valentine. She was very shaky on getting a nomination this past year but Harvey Weinstein got her there, and much of her campaigning then was around the premise of awaiting her turn as Marylin Monroe in My Week With Marylin. Many people question whether she can simply do it — whether she can mimic the sex appeal that dripped out of Monroe. However, when Michelle Williams talked about her difficulty and how much scrutiny she put into analyzing the ways Monroe would manipulate her physicality, it seems like Williams is well aware. And, frankly, she's a talented enough actress to pull it off more than actress who may bear a superficial resemblance to Monroe. Two pictures have been released so far of Williams' role — one looked more like Marylin than the other — but the fact remains that she'll have the full force of Harvey Weinstein behind her and she is more of the mold of the standard actress winner — the younger, hotter starlet. In a biopic role. With a Weinstein-driven campaign. Not to mention, just how talented this young starlet is. It frankly reminds me of the talk Colin Firth had for The King's Speech while he was campaigning for A Single Man. And we all know how that ended up.

There is a lot to look out for, though. Look out, for example, for Elizabeth Olsen in the Sundance hit Martha Marcy May Marlene. Yes, Elizbeth Olsen, as in the younger sister of the Olsen twins who had two indie movies premiere at Sundance to stunning notice. Past starlets to have been nominated after Sundance premieres include Jennifer Lawrence, Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe. Also from Sundance is Felicity Jones from Like Crazy — which one the biggest prize (as did Winter's Bone and Precious). People are also hoping Kirstin Dunst could have a major comeback playing the usual tortured woman in a Lars Von Trier (director of Antichrist, Dancer in the Dark, Dogville, etc.) flick and be the first woman since Emily Watson in 1996 to be nominated for a Trier film.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Jessica Chastain - Take Shelter
Judi Dench - My Week With Marylin
Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus
Marisa Tomei - The Ides of March
Kate Winslet - Carnage

Jessica Chastain looks like she'll shine in Malick's The Tree of Life, but we have to remember that Malick's never directed a nominated performance ever. She also, however, has a performance in what looks like a good (don't know about baity, though) Take Shelter. But you can interchange that performance with hers in The Tree of Life for the purposes of these predictions. Same with Judi Dench, who will also be in J. Edgar. I'm not sure which role will be more substantial, though. Vanessa Redgrave is said to be astounding in Ralph Fiennes' Iraqi update of the Shakespearean play, while Kate Winslet plays an extraordinarily difficult role in Carnage that I trust she will pull off. Consider Marisa Tomei a hunch considering just how brilliantly she plays supporting roles again and again, whether nominated or not (although in the slightest of baity films, she tends to get nominated). Mia Wasikowska has also had a highlight couple of years, however, and you can look out for her this year in Albert Nobbs as well.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
John Hawkes - Martha Marcy May Marlene
Viggo Mortenson - A Dangerous Method
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Christoph Waltz - Carnage

This category is the most difficult for me to pin down. I think John Hawkes' role is one that seems tailor made for this category, and could end up being the frontrunner for the top prize after breaking through last year (Oscar-wise) with Winter's Bone. Ironically, I think Mortensen will be nominated for the role Waltz dropped out of (for which Cronenberg called Waltz a "coward") while Waltz can still very well get nominated this year for what's a lead role, really, but someone needs to go supporting! As I said, Plummer's old as hell. Meanwhile, it is a gamble to predict a Malick performance, but Pitt's going to have a busy year as well with Moneyball and this seems to be a category with room for him. Although, this is all ignoring the likes of Armie Hammer, who will be playing J. Edgar Hoover's right hand man and love interest in J. Edgar, and David Thewlis who could sneak in as an only acting nomination for Spielberg's War Horse. Read more!

NDNF: Tyrannosaur

There are many films that capture the bleak landscape of humanity, with an emphasis on the treatment of women, that come across as manipulative, misogynistic, forced, and/or sadistic. No such thing in Tyrannosaur. Although it doesn't deliver on the title's promise for dinosaurs, the film's tone is as vicious and ferocious as the title would suggest (including in how the title ultimately functions in the narrative). Paddy Considine's directing debut here is one of extraordinarily crisp vision, painting a portrait of a lifestyle and of a people so removed from the rest of popular society. It's a world of grit, heartbreak, pain, screams, tension, cynicism, and dogs. Perhaps the greatest testament to his work, however, which is easily believed considering his own celebrated acting career, is the delicate touch he has with his already very capable performers. Peter Mullan's career is celebrated in Europe but has gone long overlooked in the United States, though I think that may change later this year with a role more meaty than he's ever sunk his teeth into before. It's a man he very easily could have overplayed, but even his scenes of emotional outburst are painted with layers of subtlety and subtext that may very well not be topped by any performance for the rest of this year. Olivia Colman equals him in many scenes and offers a glimpse into the flipside — the nightmarish world of the middle class often kept hushed, including the many secrets she holds throughout the film. She's a character who's immediately gone through more than Mullan's character at the hands of her frightening husband (Eddie Marsan, as good as he's ever been short of Happy-Go-Lucky). The ending is appropriately less bleak in offering closure to the film, yet never resolutely tying it conveniently with a bow nor offering a worldview any less pessimistic than it always had. By the end, people's lives are dirt. And no matter what you do, they're always going to be dirt. Read more!

NDNF: Margin Call

J.C. Chandor's feature debut Margin Call is a fresh, razor sharp and timely film acted effortlessly by a strong ensemble cast. It paints the clearest portrait of our economic climate today by not trying to dumb the concepts in ways that are still difficult to grasp, like Inside Job, but rather through getting into the mindset of those involved in such corporate meltdowns. The film is strongest in its first half, as most films are, when the banking company at the center of the film's problems are just revealed and a cast of strange characters ranging all different levels of corporate authority spend an entire night in very limited office space in what plays out as one of the most compelling thrillers you'd ever see. The film goes on, however, as the cancer spreads and the settings open up. We see these characters at their edges, at their harshest and at their most desperate. Zachary Quinto is underused in the film but still effective with his heavy glare that speaks volumes to all the different equations and thought processes going behind his character's mind as he penetrates a bizarre world of corporate elders that seems akin to Dante's Inferno. Bosses answer to other bosses who answer to other bosses that grow stranger and more powerful though with less soul as you go up the ranks until Jeremy Irons, who rules the operation with an iron fist. He hisses and bellows with authority in the Shakespearean ways he's so good at doing. Read more!