This one's pretty sewn up as well.
1. Jeff Bridges - 84%
2. Jeremy Renner - 7%
3. Colin Firth - 5%
4. George Clooney - 3%
5. Morgan Freeman - 1%
I may very well be giving all the other contenders too high of chances, but make no mistake — Jeff Bridges is taking home is very first Oscar statuette this year. Unless there's a sweep, the veteran always gets the upper hand; and damn if they haven't played Bridges "overdue" campaign fantastically. Initially due for release in March of this year, Fox Searchlight decided that with the nosedive of Amelia's Oscar chances and an opening in the Lead Actor race, that they'd release Crazy Heart for eligibility this year. Jeff Bridges has been nominated four times prior (and has been snubbed plenty of other times for a nomination), his first for his work in the devastating American masterpiece The Last Picture Show in 1972. Since then he's never truly been given a chance at the actual win itself, but he gives a performance this year as if he should have more than one on his mantle by now. Classic American storyline with a familiar character arc — down and out former star thirsting for a comeback and reform of his downtrodden life with the help of a young romantic interest. We've seen it with Robert Duvall (who also has a role in this film) in Tender Mercies and Mickey Rourke last year for The Wrestler. The former got his Oscar for it, the second (less seen as "overdue") got awfully close to it. Coming in so late in the game Bridges doesn't have many critics awards to his name apart from the ever important Los Angeles prize; but he's sweeping in the awards that matter. It started with the Golden Globes — standing ovation from all the Academy voters and insiders in the room. Critics Choice Awards — another standing ovation. Screen Actor's Guild Award — standing ovation. I predict he'll continue on his march by grabbing the BAFTA and climaxing on Academy night when Kate Winslet will grant him his well deserved Oscar.
Renner is in the Best Picture favorite of the year, the only nominee amongst the rest whose film has a remote chance at clinching Best Picture. His performance is surely a subtle turn, but one that articulates Bigelow's character study vision wonderfully. He's the lone ranger figure in this war, purely Americana, but surely psychologically flawed. His win would be the most comparable to an Brodyesque win of the year (as in, Adrien Brody). He has the best chance at riding the tide of Hurt Locker love to an upset, but with no other real precursor love (apart from being nominated for all that he needed to), I wouldn't count on it.
Quite easily my favorite of the nominees, and favorite of the year, Colin Firth in A Single Man puts in so much of himself and his purely recognizable Firthian charm that was both excellently transformational as this gay professor in the 60s but also so courageously himself pushed forward in a soul bearing and emotionally vulnerable state of mind. His character transitions into the darkest of human depths within single scenes and single shots. He doesn't "gay" it up like past winners portraying gay men, he just treats it like any other sexuality. It's an enormous accomplishment, and people do love the performance. He's hit all the nominated precursors that he had to, and New York Magazine's article on the Oscar campaign race quoted voters as saying that they surely would have voted for him had overdue Bridges not been factored into this race. He's nominated for a BAFTA award that he stands a fair chance at winning, being nominated three times before without a win (suggesting more of that "overdue" factor in that crucial voting branch, more than previously unnominated Bridges) and holding even more beloved admiration among the British entertainment industry — a formidable voting block in the Academy. He's had buzz ever since his win at the Venice Film Festival earlier in the year. The film, however, was underseen, not admired across the spectrum and clearly not beloved in the Academy given how few nominations it received (had potential for Picture, Julianne Moore, Screenplay, and various techs including Score, Cinematography Costume Design). I could only pray for an upset which would qualify as one of the Academy's most inspired decisions of the decade, but if he's going to lose to anyone then Bridges would be the most deserved of them.
George Clooney gives a fine performance as the heart and soul of Up in the Air, giving the impression of his usual persona at first but then twisting it by the end in such a way that you realize he's taken you on his fully emotional journey with his character through this film. Clooney had gotten a few key critics notices in the beginning of the year, and it seemed like this beloved Hollywood figure could not be stopped. Though there were always questions over whether he was seen as so deserving of a second Oscar so soon after his "overdue" notice in 2004 for Syrianna (one of the weakest Supporting wins of the decade, for my money). His likability in the business has not gone down any, especially with his charity work after the devastating quake in Haiti which gave Hollywood an excuse to pat itself on the back. But especially with Up in the Air's shocking decline in buzz and enthusiasm following its release (vastly overshadowed by Avatar's grotesque box office decimation), Clooney's buzz is practically dead in the water. He was the heart of that movie; and with that movie failing, he does as well. He also stands a chance at that BAFTA, being nominated as many times as Colin Firth without a win with clear admiration for him. With that he might be back in the game, but I would consider him about third in line for that prize.
One of the most anticipated movies of the year that failed to even crack the top 10. So called golden boy Clint Eastwood couldn't muster a nomination for it. Disappointed in box office and critic's response. So why do I give Morgan Freeman a 1% chance of winning? The following voter: "Hm. Morgan Freeman played Nelson Mandela? Well, that sounds like it must have been pretty good." *checks Morgan Freeman's name*
But, his chances are more realistically about 0.5%. I just wanted to round up.
Next Up: Best Actress in a Leading Role!
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