This race is more of less locked at this point.
1. Katheryn Bigelow - 94%
2. Quentin Tarantino - 3%
3. James Cameron - 2%
4. Lee Daniels - 1%
5. Jason Reitman - 0%
The lovely, talented, and strikingly gorgeous Kathryn Bigelow is slated to make history in this category as the very first woman (fourth nominee) to win the coveted prize of Best Director at the Academy Awards. The historical opportunity on her side combined with her Director's Guild prize — which matches up in the Oscars 90% of the time — makes her about as good of a lock as Christoph Waltz or Mo'Nique. Especially important in a year where the directors seem to be the big stars of the show and some of the main attractions of their films, Kathryn Bigelow made a splash at the Venice Film Festival followed by the Toronto Film Festival in 2008. Picked up pitifully by Summit Entertainment, they gave it a terribly unfair release in early June with little to no advertisement, but the critics by the end of the year managed to pick it up and give it a virtual sweep — winning in each of the most prestigious of all the guilds (New York, Los Angeles, and the National Society of Film Critics). And even if the movie didn't win a critic's group top prize, chances are they allotted their Best Director award to Ms. Bigelow. Why? First of all, she directs this movie with such a tight control that makes the audience a nervous wreck from opening shot to the very last second. She goes in as close to the events in the war with just as much care and recklessness as her characters on the ground are doing, producing a war movie that is as much badass and thrilling (seemingly male-centric) entertainment as it is a gritty psychological character study of the Iraq War and its effects on soldiers. Watching it, you would never suspect that it was a ravishing woman of (somehow) 60 years behind the camera, but no matter the sex this piece was a directorial triumph and a standout piece of craftsmanship to close the decade.
Quentin Tarantino's perhaps the single most internationally recognized "auteur" out of American cinema. Directing the Palme D'Or winner of 1994, Pulp Fiction, he forever changed the way the industry made movies and became definitive of 90s cinema. His films to this day inspire the most passion for genuine cinema out of many generations of moviegoers and he has never succeeded at doing that better than with his latest work Inglourious Basterds. Making money at the box office, it has the distinction of being both a box office sensation (like Avatar) and a cinematic war wonder (like The Hurt Locker). Not to mention also a dark comedy (like Up in the Air). It's a happy medium of all the nominations, and heavily respected. Vote splitting of any kind can go in his favor, especially with the uber powerful Harvey Weinstein throwing him in the promotional rounds for the film throughout the awards season and putting all his money on this horse to succeed. "It's his time," says Weinstein, referring to Tarantino. He may just be right. But a (rather overdue) second screenplay win for him seems to be more in the cards, and a consolation prize for his towering achievement.
James Cameron has seemingly done the impossible — in a short two months, he's managed to top his own box office record with Avatar already being the highest grossing film of all time, a position held for well over a decade by his previous film Titanic. Then again, this is taking into account inflated ticket prices for 3D and not really ranking among the highest theater attendance for a film throughout a history, a position that will seemingly forever be held by Gone with the Wind. But, anyways, Titanic came with a whopping 11 Academy Awards including three prizes for him, the same number he's nominated for this year (Picture, Director, Editing). However, accepting his Oscar for Best Director back in 1998, he came across as self-obsessed and rather smug. This year he hasn't done himself many more favors, either, with much stronger backlash against he and his film already that took a lot longer to sink in with Titanic (haha, sinking pun). The film has no major guild prize to its name and voters would be hard pressed to vote for this already 3 time winner over his amicably ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow.
The nomination of Lee Daniels is another historic one in the Academy lineup this year. Only the second black director to be nominated, only the second black gay director to be nominated. His film the first by a black director to receive a nomination for Best Picture. He brilliantly maneuvers his film from lightness to the darkest depths of human cruelty eventually to a message of hope in bleak times. As Helen Mirren so accurately described, its "raw poetry," and combined with the monumental performances he managed to pull out from his stars, it is in my opinion the single strongest directorial work this year. That being said, his direction is easily the most divisive aspect of the film, and many suspected it would be an uphill climb for him to receive this nomination (let alone win). In my mind Precious has been proven loved enough by the Academy that he probably is not the last person on the list, and he probably has a better shot at the award than online critics give him credit for in their worthless blogs. That being said, his shot at this prize is sadly not very high at all.
Jason Reitman once shocked the world back in 2008 with a Best Director nomination for the 2007 smash hit Juno. At the time seen as a confusing nomination for a film that did not seem very heavily directed, we can now reflect upon just how refreshing it was to see a very freshly directed comedy recognized in an organization generally seen as biased against comedies. He accomplished this well deserved nomination just as his film was hitting a pinnacle of awards attention and box office success, a peak which Up in the Air (kind of) experienced a few months ago. At this point, he was very vulnerable and see him as being in the most vulnerable spot of this lineup. The enthusiasm for the film has waned and his praises have been directed more at his writing than his directing. Once again in a year of compromises — where each director's strongest areas of accomplishments will probably get recognition — Jason Reitman will be rewarded for his sharp screenplay. Just as Quentin Tarantino will for his writing, Bigelow will for her directing, Cameron will with his film's visual effects and Daniels will in the form of recognition of his actresses and the performances he was able to pull out of them.
Next up: Best Actor in a Leading Role!
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