Monday, January 31, 2011

The 'Citizen Kane' Comparisons Finally Come to Fruition


70 years ago, a little film called Citizen Kane opened in the United States. The film was a thinly veiled story recounting the life of newspaper tycoon William Randolph Hearst. Hearst was the face of mass media at the time, one of the most important figures of the era dictating how information was often spread in that era. Orson Welles played his character, named Charles Foster Kane in the film, as a young man driven to be as successful as he can be at the cost of everyone around him to the point where his greed became his ultimate downfall. Was it appreciated at its time? Of course it was! Critics went crazy enough for it, and it won as many critics awards as there were at the time — the New York Film Critics Circle Awards and the National Board of Review. The film went up for 9 Oscars in a 10 Best Picture year including Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Sound and Score. But what ended up winning? Why, the heartfelt and more traditional How Green Was My Valley, of course. The film received 10 nominations and virtually swept that year at the Oscars thanks to its mega producer Darryl F. Zanuck. Citizen Kane was left with just one consolation prize in the form of an Oscar for Best Screenplay.

Are the comparisons I'm trying to make ever so clear holding up every step of the way? Well, of course not. The King's Speech will probably win a lot more than How Green Was My Valley's dinky five Oscars. But, in essence, with everyone grappling for examples to look for to find precedent in The King's Speech sudden shattering of The Social Network's buzz I think we need to look no further than the film that it's been controversially compared to in the first place The comparisons, often credited to Peter Travers, were made largely on pretty agreeable and thematic grounds, with The Social Network recounting a similarly dehumanizing rise to power with the social networking service that has shaped the way that this generation communicates. Arguable, and it has been argued, but okay. I think, in general, it holds. Most of the controversy had to do with the legacy of the initial film, but so far it seems to be following the same, doomed (in terms of Oscar success), path.


Ever since the Academy's return to a 10 film Best Picture lineup last year, it's been smartest to search for precedents in the early years of Academy voting which followed a similar preferential ballot to see some trends in voting. Luckily, Citizen Kane was within this time frame and is the film we have to work with as being most often compared to The Social Network. Barring a few obvious circumstantial differences — Hearst himself actively working his influence against the film, a more seasoned director at the helm of How Green Was My Valley, the French New Wave theorists bringing rise to the claim of Citizen Kane as the golden standard for film — I think Citizen Kane today would largely follow the same path. There are truly an absurd number of critics organizations now out there handing out awards, and for the first time I can think of since so many have popped up out of every pocket of the country, one can count on their hands the number of awards The Social Network did not win. The awards it did win do include the NBR and the NYFCC. Critics are pretty damn sure that this is the best movie of the year. But, when you get right down to it, those in the industry respond quicker and easier to a film with so-called "heart." How Green Was My Valley and The King's Speech simply conform better to the genre elements that are proven formulas for Oscar success (see Richard Corliss' excellent piece on The King's Speech from last year's Toronto Film Festival). The industry awards would have broken down the exact same way.

Unless The King's Speech magically finds itself in competition with The Social Network for the WGA, the writers are (shockingly) the only guild that will have reward The Social Network with some substantial prize. Otherwise, the industry just adores The King's Speech. As I said before, if Tom Hooper won that DGA then the race was over. Especially now that it also won the SAG prize that was expected to go to The Fighter, you can call it signed, sealed and delivered. It's a straight up lock, ladies and gentlemen. Whether or not The Social Network will be remembered in the future in quite the same terms of fondness that Citizen Kane currently is remains to be seen; I, myself, was always unsure of the comparison and found it a bit jumping the gun. But no one seems to even be having the same conversation concerning The King's Speech, which is simply filled with too much sameness to properly stand out from this year's crop of visionary work years from now. But, it is slated to sweep, including in many tech categories where it's up against The Social Network while the undeniably fresher Social Network seems destined to leave with just a screenplay prize for Aaron Sorkin and an outside shot at one or two additional tech prizes.


Looking as I am at the current state of the awards race, I must concede that The Social Network really is looking like a Citizen Kane right about now.
Read more!

Friday, January 28, 2011

The stake of this weekend's guild awards



After the PGA and the announcement of the Academy Award nominations, this race has shifted in a big way in The King's Speech's favor after a huge PGA upset and a gargantuan 48 nomination pull at the Oscars. The egregious snub of Andrew Garfield shows a possible weakness in the acting branch's support for The Social Network, which desperately needs this weekend to regain the kind of momentum it needs to pull off a win this year. The three films that seem to have the best shot at winning Best Picture this year are the ones that gained the trifecta of nominations in Director, Screenplay and Editing, as well as some acting nominations. The only films with nominations in each field are The Fighter, The King's Speech and The Social Network. The King's Speech already got the PGA, I get the sense that The Fighter will win the SAG and that The Social Network will win the DGA for the first three-way split in the guilds since 2005. That would be good news for The Social Network since the DGA tends to be the more accurate indicator of who will win Best Picture, like in the aforementioned year when Million Dollar Baby triumphed over both PGA winning The Aviator and SAG Ensemble winner Sideways. If Tom Hooper manages a DGA upset, I'd say it's all but over for any film other than The King's Speech to triumph this year.

SAG is even more up in the air. The King's Speech got the most nominations and even if it loses the DGA but wins the SAG, I would say that it still benefits from the momentum. However, it is the more traditional choice and there has been a recent brouhaha over SAG voting this year when they switched to online balloting which the older members of SAG, to whom The King's Speech probably most appeals to, had no idea of and are waiting for their paper ballots after having thrown away their earlier received instructions on how to vote online. This could also benefit The Social Network which could regain its frontrunner status if it stages a coup this weekend by winning the DGA, the SAG, and getting Mark Zuckerberg to guest star on the Saturday Night Live episode hosted by Jesse Eisenberg this weekend. I do get the sense that the easier option to vote for, though, will be The Fighter, with its flashier supporting characters that will likely win awards the same night. But don't rule out The King's Speech's supporting players (Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham Carter) in those categories, either. That could also show some telling support for that film. Read more!

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Oscar nominations



There is nothing left to look for between now and Tuesday when Oscar nominations will be released. The Globes have set frontrunners, the BAFTA have given a barometer to how potentially half of the Academy's acting branch will have voted. I swear, this will get back to a regular film review blog soon, but, y'know, 'tis the season to be jolly or whatnot. Here are my final, yes, final, predictions for Oscar nominations.

Let's start slow. You know. Not giving all my cards out at once kinda thing. Here are some categories people forget about — the shorts. But let's...not really count these in my overall tally, unless I turn out to be really correct. Learning curve!

Live Action Short
Ana's Playground
God of Love
Little Children, Big Words
Na Wewe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man


Admittedly, I haven't seen any of these besides God of Love and interviewing director Luke Matheny. But there are some factors you can look at to predict these kinds of categories. For instance, in Matheny's case, he's already been shown a strong contingent of support from the sorts of industry insiders who will be packed into the room screening these movies and then deciding their votes on the spot. His film won the Student Academy Award this past year and won top prize at the Angelus Film Festival, which has a jury of insiders across a spectrum of entertainment industries. The other ones either seem socially conscious or generally tug at the heartstrings. Ana's Playground and Na Wewe take place in war torn areas of the world while both and Little Children, Big Words and The Six Dollar Fifty Man additionally center their narratives around children. And I mean, that's always nice. Right?

Animated Short
The Cow Who Wanted To Be a Hamburger
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
Let's Pollute
The Silence Beneath the Bark


Pixar's shorts introducing their blockbuster successes aren't usually assured nominations, here, but they're the ones that usually have the most popular momentum going for them since they obviously would be the most seen of the nominees (you probably remember Day & Night having introduced Toy Story 3). I'm predicting The Cow Who Wanted To Be a Hamburger almost solely for Bill Plympton — partially because I'm personally rooting for him, and partially because he just happens to be an icon in the animation industry at this moment with a lot of momentum being shortlisted in both this category and the Animated Feature category. This at least shows love for him as an industry figure, I reckon, and there's no way his feature film can make it into a competitive field of just 3 nominees. So here I have him, even though the style seems completely bizarre. Let's Pollute just seems like a fun little diddy with semi socially conscious messages behind it and The Silence Beneath the Bark is said to be entirely memorable.

Documentary Short
Born Sweet
Living for 32
Killing in the Name
Strangers No More
The Warriors of Qiugang


Complete guesswork. No harm, no foul — right?

Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Giftshop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman


We move back into feature films, where this category seems a bit more tangible and familiar. But the Documentary voting branch often likes to throw curveballs, and in such a banner year for the category who knows what kind of films would make it in. The unorthodox Exit Through the Gift Shop might be the most rewarded so far of the season, and while before I would not have pegged it for being up the alley of this particular branch's tastes I figure it being shortlisted means they liked it just fine. Inside Job is a bit of a festival favorite, and much more in this branch's liberal preferences than the more mainstream Waiting for Superman, although the film has a fantastic marketing team behind it and one of the best PR campaigns we've seen this season. Call Gasland a hunch. I'm still displeased that Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and The Oath were not shortlisted, though.

Best Foreign Language Film
Canada - Incendies
France - Of Gods and Men
Iraq - Sons of Babylon
South Africa - Life, Above All
Turkey - Bal

Perpetually the most perplexing and controversial category in this entire awards, it's not always the high profile arthouse flicks that make it in. It's a completely unique system with a very defined set of voters, whose tastes are usually distinguishable...after they've snubbed the films everyone expected to get in. The only entry I've seen of these predictions is France's, which I'm not the biggest fan of. But France is a perennial favorite, with the film as visually striking but as narratively slow as might be their cup of tea, and new rules skewing influence to festival hits almost assures this a nomination. Sons of Babylon is supposedly exactly the kind of father/son roadtrip movie that could make that film a frontrunner to win this year, while Roger Ebert — who tends to be an accurate barometer of traditional Academy sensibilities — highly praised South Africa's entry Life, Above All. Turkey's Bal, or Honey, seems to have that child-focused narrative that tugs at the heartstrings as well as having been a winner at the Berlin festival earlier in the year. Canada's Incendies is just presumed to be a frontrunner, but when the shortlists come out we may well see some of these very choices miss out. Other options could be Mexico's Biutiful from Alejandro González Iñárritu (whose films have been nominated in the category before), although I still think the film is much too miserablist for their tastes, or recent Golden Globe winner In a Better World from Danish auteur Suzanne Bier (these do tend to skew more European, after all).


UPDATED: UMMM the shortlists came out and it turns out that 3 of these didn't make the cut at all. Damn. I'm terrible at this.

New predictions:
Algeria - Outside the Law
Canada - Incendies
Denmark - In a Better World
Mexico - Biutiful
South Africa - Life, Above All


Best Original Song
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"Pretty Girls," Despicable Me
"I See the Light," Tangled
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
"Shine," Waiting for Superman

Another fickle branch of the Academy is the music branch. A jury of voters watches each qualifying song as it plays in the movie it belongs to and gives it a certain score of which it must pass a threshold to be nominated — which has led to some pretty shocking snubs in the past. There could be as few as two nominees, or even none in a given year. I do think there are enough songs from this year to suit their fancy, however, for a full five-nominee category. Music star Dido's haunting voice sings to A.R. Rahman's melody that this branch and the Academy at large proved to like 2 years ago with Slumdog Millionaire at a crucial plot point in 127 Hours. It's the kind of stuff Best Song nominations are meant for. Alan Menken is so beloved in this category that he's won eight Oscars in six years (!!!) at the height of the Disney renaissance in the early 90s, and had three nominations from Enchanted as early as 2007. This year, he's only submitted one song, as to prevent him from splitting votes from himself and potentially winning a ninth Oscar for Tangled. Randy Newman's another music legend adored by the Academy, with a great song in a great film that plays over the humorous credits. "Shine" by John Legend has the air of social importance that got Melissa Etheridge an Oscar in 2006 for An Inconvenient Truth — a documentary from the same director as Waiting for Superman. I just have "Pretty Girls" as kind of a surprise inclusion because Pharell did a great job with the Despicable Me soundtrack and, in recent years, the branch has been kind to hip hop stars (puzzlingly enough). He may even be a threat to win if he does overcome to hurdle to be nominated.
Other songs with chances include a limit of two for Burlesque, a beautiful Jónsi song from How To Train Your Dragon and the perfectly lovely "Chanson Illusioniste" from The Illusionist — considering the song mention for Chomet's last film, The Triplets of Belleville.

Best Original Score
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network


I think Rahman's now officially a member of the club, which means he'll rack up as many nominations as possible as long as he keeps scoring potential Picture contenders (or, just Boyle films). Rachel Portman is in that same club for Never Let Me Go, and The King's Speech seems like a good excuse to reward both that film and Desplat's career year (in which he produced highly superior scores to the likes of The Ghost Writer and Harry Potter 7.1. Inception and The Social Network both just happen to be the most rewarded scores of the year, with The Social Network actually having more wins than the already iconic Inception soundtrack. This group historically is not kind to rock stars like Trent Reznor, but if they already considered him qualified (they could have disqualified him the way they did to Johnny Greenwood for There Will Be Blood) then perhaps it means they like him. Besides, it's in a Picture frontrunner with the score having some resemblance (besides being much better and all) than that of The Hurt Locker, nominated last year.

Best Sound Mixing
Inception
Iron Man 2
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit


Best Sound Editing
127 Hours
Inception
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Unstoppable


I'll be the first to admit that I don't have the best ear for spotting the difference between sound mixing and sound editing. Ultimately, from what I understand, sound mixing is the sounds that are made and sound editing is how those sounds are incorporated into the movie. Animated films, and particularly Pixar films, tend to be popular in these categories. Often they only get one or the other, but I figure if that's the case then it's probably safer to predict Toy Story 3 in both instead of picking the wrong one. Sound mixers are said to be astounded by the soundtrack of The Social Network, from the club scene where you can still perfectly hear dialogue despite the overwhelming noise of the music or Fincher getting as detailed as the perfect sound of Zuckerberg's flip flops. I think it'll get nominated in both. The other slots and choices, particularly Inception, comes from people's general perception that "louder" is "better" in this category.

Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman


Rick Baker's the stuff of legends and his work on The Wolfman is said to be of all-time great level. Alice in Wonderland provides opportunity for very baity makeup work, and the aging done on the actors of Barney's Version is particularly up this branch's aisle. Although this category is often known for curveballs as well. You might see something like The Fighter make it here, or perhaps Black Swan. Those would be in place of Barney's Version, as I think the other two are quite safe.

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy


It's hard to go very wrong in this category, since the branch oddly released a bakeoff of seven eligible films for it this year. They've always done that, but this year is the first in which the category is extended from three to five. The only ones not here that were included were Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World. Seeing the latter there would be a fabulous surprise, but I don't have my hopes up.

Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
The Social Network


Another reason I can't put Pilgrim in my visual effects category is because I already have my delusions predicting it here in a shock. Generally this category includes 4 Picture nominees and an extra slot for some really fancy editing. This slot in the past has gone to District 9 and The Bourne Ultimatum. I figure editors know better than anyone how brilliant and innovative the use of editing was in Scott Pilgrim, the same way cinematographers were able to recognize the brilliance of The White Ribbon last year against everyone's predictions. Before her passing Sally Menke had even remarked highly of the use of editing in that movie.
The other four nominees are just ACE nominees and Picture contender.

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit


Colleen Atwood doing fantasy, Sandy Powell doing period, a ballet flick and an old Western flick. Seems pretty standard to me.

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit


Similar rules from above apply here. Just call The Social Network a hunch, though.

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit


Inception and True Grit are locks and frontrunners. The King's Speech and The Social Network could make it in just based on the strength of them being BP frontrunners. Black Swan is just hella impressive and has been a critics' darling of sorts (the way The White Ribbon was last year).

Best Animated Film
How To Tran Your Dragon
My Dog Tulip
Toy Story 3


Again, call My Dog Tulip a hunch as well (too many of those?), but the branch here really likes fringey out there animation and aren't afraid to nominate something totally obscure at a moment's notice. Not to mention its brilliant campaign to draw attention to itself in Hollywood. It could be replaced by The Illusionist, as they liked Sylvain Chomet's work last time, but he sadly wasn't BAFTA nominated. The support could be weaker than we think.

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


It's either 127 Hours or The Town in that last slot. Both were WGA nominated, but that's probably because Winter's Bone wasn't eligible. BAFTA nominated 127 Hours, but I don't know how much of an overlap there is with BAFTA writers (certainly not as much as the acting branch).

Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech


Alright, look. I'm sensing a major upset here, I just don't know where. I think the two K's are pretty locked in, as is Inception. Neither Black Swan nor The Fighter seem like much of writer's movies, but Black Swan especially seems like more a feat in directing and acting than anything else. But what could slip in? Four Lions could potentially pop up as this year's In the Loop. Another Year wasn't nominated at BAFTA for its screenplay but then again, the Academy recognized Happy-Go-Lucky which was shut out in BAFTA nominations. But that film also had more precursor support. AGGGH!! Animal Kingdom also seems very written, and Blue Valentine seems like perfectly indie fare to reward here as it was cresting at just the right time for awards momentum (in spite of much of the film being improvised).

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

It may seem ballsy, but I'm allowing BAFTA to justify my ballsiness here. This was always the most open category all season, and a shakeup is in order. Amy Adams and Helena Bonham Carter are locks after their nominations at the BFCA, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and BAFTAs. Melissa Leo is a lock as well with her wins at the Globes and the BFCA, as well as a likely SAG win. Once we get beyond that, there are two open slots. Jacki Weaver missed out on the SAG. Mila Kunis missed the BAFTA in favor of her co-star, Barbara Hershey. Lesley Manville missed out on most things and has category confusion. But from the very first round of BAFTA voting, which includes enough members of the Academy to get her a spot in such a free-for-all year, Manville landed in the top five. And in the top five she remains, and potential frontrunner for the win in this category. Weaver's small Australian film was the first screener sent out which, from my experiences, can be very telling of that film's chances come nomination morning. Think The Savages, the first screener of 2007 which went unnoticed all season until Laura Linney's nomination for Best Actress. Think District 9 last year. Plus, seeing her on the campaign circuit all of a sudden in all her sweetness makes it hard for me to imagine she misses. I would love for Mila Kunis to get in, however, Barbara Hershey making that spot over her at the BAFTA was very telling. She was never all that safe to begin with, and if she has that kind of formidable internal competition at play then I think they may well both cancel each other out. And we'll get to Hailee Steinfeld in a moment.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Number's game. Rush and Bale are the two locks getting nominations from all the BFCA, Globes, SAG and BAFTA. Garfield, Renner and Ruffalo all have three of those four off their checklist, which keeps them relatively safe. Although Postlethwaite's posthumous (say those two words five times fast) BAFTA nomination makes me worried of Renner's chances with that internal competition. Postlethwaite was an honored and respected character actor on the other side of the pond, as well, and in spite of it being pretty solely almost shamefully sentimental I can see those two canceling out the way I foresee for both Kunis and Hershey. And I am getting the growing sense that SAG nominated John Hawkes can still sneak in. It'd be a good NGNG pick, but I think Winter's Bone might be rather doomed as a film...

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

I figured with Steinfeld's lead placement at BAFTAs longlists alone would put her in serious contention for the final lead nomination slot at the Oscars, but with a shiny new BAFTA nomination now actually to her name it seems all the more clear. I can actually kind of foresee Kidman missing before Steinfeld, whereas before I was worried Steinfeld might split votes between the Lead and Supporting category. Rabbit Hole, on the other hand, missed out on a WGA mention for its Pulitzer and Tony Award winning writer, the film's made a dismal box office showing, and no one outside of Kidman seems to be nominated for the film. Are people even watching it at this point? They might just be putting her name down for her being Kidman. Michelle Williams may have hope yet!

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Duvall missed a Globe nomination, and he missed a BAFTA nomination. Generally, though, you want to try to not sway so much away from the SAG nominations (which aligned with Oscar nominations last year 19/20), so I'm keeping this pretty much the same. With Bridges getting BAFTA nominated again, I see him joining the safe club along with Firth, Eisenberg, and Franco. My dream would be for Blue Valentine to really break through replacing one of those last slots on the Picture list, with Gosling over Duvall, Williams over Kidman, and the screenplay over something else. It could happen but all those elements would have to come together perfectly and I'm just not willing to take the risk of breaking that far away from precedent (which I've already done plenty of). Another possible upset to look for is Javier Bardem's humane performance in Biutiful which received high profile endorsements at the height of voting season and a BAFTA nomination this morning.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception

I had predicted David O. Russell to get the DGA nomination over the Coen brothers. But in the past decade the DGA has only aligned with the Academy's nominations twice, one of which being last year. It definitely seems too soon for that to happen again, meanwhile many DGA ballots were sent before True Grit's fantastic performance at the box office nevermind the fact that the DGA was always more of a populist voting body to begin with. I can't see any on the line auteurs like Mike Leigh or Peter Weir making it in here, or even a woman like Lisa Cholodenko or Debra Granik following Bigelow's shattering of the glass ceiling last year. I think they're all probably in the top ten with Russell, but pretty far behind.

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit


I've finally taken Winter's Bone off my list. It got shutout at the BAFTAs and hasn't made much of a guild appearance at all, unlike both 127 Hours or The Town. Neither of which got the top BAFTA nomination but they both got enough to suggest the support to get them in over Winter's Bone (especially that nomination for Danny Boyle). Blue Valentine also got shutout but I see that potentially appealing to a lot of voters that only got to see it after the unusually early SAG balloting where it did very well in limited release as ballots were released. So I guess those are two upset options.

The Social Network - 11 nominations
Inception - 10 nominations
The King's Speech - 10 nominations
True Grit - 9 nominations
127 Hours - 7 nominations
Black Swan - 7 nominations
The Fighter - 6 nominations
Toy Story 3 - 6 nominations
Alice in Wonderland - 4 nominations
The Kids Are All Right - 4 nominations
The Town - 2 nominations
Winter's Bone - 2 nominations
Read more!

Monday, January 17, 2011

BAFTA Awards



The British Academy of Film and Television is the British equivalence of the Oscars and Emmys rolled into one, essentially. They've had a long tradition of handing out awards, as such national Academic bodies do, but only since 1999 have they started to reward their films prior to the Oscars and have, in the years since, proven to be a crucial indicator as a precursor to the Academy Awards. They can be the deciding factors in breaking ties or deciding a very open race.

Look at 2007, for example. National treasure Julie Christie lost out on their Lead Actress prize to French darling Marion Cotillard after what had grown into a real two-way horse race (with Ellen Page as a possible upset). Marion Cotillard managed to take the Oscars. The real clusterfuck that year, however, was in the Best Supporting Actress category where Amy Ryan had been a critics darling for Gone Baby Gone, Cate Blanchett was the industry favorite after having won the Golden Globe for gender bending in I'm Not There, elderly veteran character actress Ruby Dee had won the Screen Actor's Guild prize for essentially a cameo in American Gangster and Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA for Michael Clayton. Guess who won the Oscar that year?

In Round 1 of voting, the BAFTA members release a longlist of 15 names and films per category that, in Round 2, they whittle down to 5. They denote, however, which films made the top 5 in each category except for Best Film in Round 1, which tends to mirror the final nominations about 75% of the time. The final nominations for the BAFTA should be released close to 3 a.m. EST, so I feel like I might as well attempt to predict them even though I've never done such a thing. So don't take these very seriously.

Best Film
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network


Director
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network


Leading Actor
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jim Broadbent, Another Year
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network


Leading Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love


Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Pete Postlethwaite, The Town


Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham


Original Screenplay
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech


Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Ghost
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit


Animated Film
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3


Original Music
127 Hours
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network


Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit


Production Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
The King's Speech


Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit


Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network


Sound
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit


Special Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Monsters
TRON: Legacy


Make up & Hair
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
The King's Speech
Read more!

Saturday, January 15, 2011

The Golden Globe Awards



Well, the Critic's Choice Awards last night was a complete snoozer, with no unexpected wins. But that's rather expecting coming from the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Does that differ much from the Globes, whose choices just tend to be dumber than everyone else's? Remains to be seen, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Here are my choices ranked from most likely to least likely to win:

Best Drama Picture:
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. Black Swan


Best Comedy/Musical Picture:
1. The Kids Are All Right
2. Alice in Wonderland
3. Burlesque
4. Red
5. The Tourist


Best Director:
1. David Fincher
2. Christopher Nolan
3. Darren Aronofsky
4. David O. Russell
5. Tom Hooper


Best Drama Actor:
1. Colin Firth
2. Jesse Eisenberg
3. James Franco
4. Ryan Gosling
5. Mark Wahlberg


Best Drama Actress:
1. Natalie Portman
2. Nicole Kidman
3. Michelle Williams
4. Jennifer Lawrence
5. Halle Berry


Best Comedy/Musical Actor:
1. Kevin Spacey
2. Johnny Depp (Alice in Wonderland)
3. Paul Giamatti
4. Jake Gyllenhaal
5. Johnny Depp (Tourist)


Best Comedy/Musical Actress:
1. Julianne Moore
2. Annette Bening
3. Emma Stone
4. Anne Hathaway
5. Angelina Jolie


Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christian Bale
2. Geoffrey Rush
3. Michael Douglas
4. Andrew Garfield
5. Jeremy Renner


Best Supporting Actress:
1. Helena Bonham Carter
2. Amy Adams
3. Melissa Leo
4. Mila Kunis
5. Jacki Weaver


Best Screenplay:
1. The Social Network
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. The King's Speech
4. Inception
5. 127 Hours


Best Score:
1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. The King's Speech
5. 127 Hours


Best Song:
1. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"
2. "Bound to You"
3. "Coming Home"
4. "I See the Light"
5. "There's a Place for Us"


Best Animated Picture:
1. Toy Story 3
2 (tie). How To Train Your Dragon/The Illusionist/Tangled
5. Despicable Me


Best Foreign Language Picture:
1. I Am Love
2. Biutiful
3. The Concert
4. In a Better World
5. The Edge
Read more!

Thursday, January 13, 2011

The Broadcast Film Critics Choice Awards



Airing on VH1 tomorrow, with such distinguished presenters as...the Kardashians...does it matter? Of course not. Here's who will win, anyways (they're usually pretty predictable and try to stay in line with who has the most tangible Oscar buzz).

Best Picture: The Social Network
Alternate: The King's Speech

Best Actor: Colin Firth
Alternate: James Franco

Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Alternate: Annette Bening

Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Alternate: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld

Best Young Actor/Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Acting Ensemble: The Kids Are All Right
Alternate: The Fighter

Best Director: David Fincher
Alternate: Christopher Nolan

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Alternate: Inception

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Alternate: None.

Best Cinematography: True Grit
Alternate: Inception

Best Art Direction: Inception
Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

Best Editing: Inception
Alternate: The Social Network

Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Alternate: The King's Speech

Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
Alternate: Black Swan

Best Visual Effects: Inception
Alternate: None.

Best Sound: Inception
Alternate: Black Swan

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Alternate: None.

Best Action Movie: Inception
Alternate: None.

Best Comedy: Easy A
Alternate: I Love You Phillip Morris

Best Picture Made for Television: Temple Grandin
Alternate: The Pacific

Best Foreign Language Film: I Am Love
Alternate: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Documentary Feature: Waiting for Superman
Alternate: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Song: "Shine"
Alternate: "I See the Light"

Best Score: Inception
Alternate: The Social Network
Read more!

Thursday, January 6, 2011

MOB: Another year, another set of predictions

This will likely be my second-to-last set of predictions, the last one before my final predictions. There are a couple of precursors left to look for — particularly, the guilds for the techs and the BAFTA nominations. This set of predictions might look a little bit safe, but the fact is that the most often correct predictions are those which play it on the safer side. I've had a change of heart over a few things in the past few weeks, but we'll go over all of them.

Best Picture:
1. The Social Network
2. The Fighter
3. The King's Speech
4. Black Swan
5. Inception
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Toy Story 3
9. Winter's Bone
10. The Town


My major change of heart here was The Town, which I thought needed desperately that SAG Ensemble nom that it missed out on. But it didn't miss out entirely, adding to Jeremy Renner's check-list of the major precursors needed for his category (Globes, BFCA, SAG) and got both the PGA (important) and the WGA (not important). It's most serious competition is 127 Hours, which will have a good amount of tech support...supposedly. It did miss out on the Cinema Audio Society nominees today, and that might spell disaster for the other guilds. Like The Town, however, it did manage to catch both the PGA and the WGA as well as an obvious nomination for Franco at the SAG. The Town has more passion, however, and will likely grab more #1 votes than 127 Hours which seems more admired than loved. Both films topped Winter's Bone for the PGA, but I don't think that film's missing out with two SAG nominations (including a surprise for John Hawkes) and support from recent Oscar-winning directors Scorsese and Bigelow. I think Toy Story 3 is ultimately safe, as well, with voters like Quentin Tarantino and Diane Keaton so far having gone on record to call it their favorite films of the year. The passion there will do the work itself. Inception has the Christopher Nolan factor, True Grit is dominating the box office as we speak, and the other five that pivotal SAG Ensemble nomination.

Assuming Winter's Bone will be included, that leaves one spot open that both The Town and 127 Hours are fighting for. Last year, 8/10 of the PGA's choices matched up with Academy nominations, which means that something like The Blind Side can come up as a surprise mention. Let's say both The Town and 127 Hours kind of cancel themselves out, what else makes it? There's a few options. I think one important factor to look for will be the BAFTA longlists released at the end of this week. Of course, these lists include a lot of names — 15 choices per category! But the BAFTA's acting branch is probably the single precursor with the largest percentage of AMPAS member overlap, and if they show a lot of love for the entire cast of Another Year — which means Manville, Broadbent, Sheen, Wight, Bradley, AND Staunton — can potentially show enough support for this otherwise shutout film to slip into that last slot. Blue Valentine is another possible film, doing well in limited release with the full might of the Weinstein Company behind it. I think it will undoubtedly have the passion, but that passion might skew a bit young and dependent on the actors who might have trouble sneaking in to their respective categories.

Best Director:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan


These five seem pretty good, unless Aronofsky is simply not liked in the directors branch. The DGA will be important to look for at the beginning of next week, which may or may not snub him or even someone like Tom Hoooper in favor of a more populist game changing choice like O'Russell for The Fighter which has undoubted enthusiasm in Hollywood. I could also see Debra Granik or Mike Leigh cracking this list.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low


SAG lineup. It'd be a shame to see it without Ryan Gosling, but it happens. Jeff Bridges' career is just too hot right now and Robert Duvall proved his respect in Hollywood with a recent star in his honor added to the Hollywood Walk of Fame. I could still see either missing out to Gosling, or potentially other stars with more passionate supporters like Javier Bardem for Biutiful (Sean Penn and Julia Roberts are nice stars to have on your side for the Oscars) or even Michael Douglas showing up for Solitary Man a la Tommy Lee Jones in 2007.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Lesley Manville, Another Year


Common wisdom says that fifth slot is up for grabs, but I honestly believe the only ones totally safe for nominations are Portman and Bening. Lawrence got that SAG nomination, obviously good news for her, but heat for her film in general has cooled. And Rabbit Hole is pulling in some disappointing numbers at the box office which has brought no wins yet to Kidman (while there have been wins for Portman, Bening, Lawrence, Manville and Michelle Williams) let alone many nominations for anyone else involved in the film.
Weinstein doesn't have anyone from The King's Speech to focus a campaign on in this category, and she has a lot of allies including Kate Winslet holding private screenings for her. I think BAFTA will keep Manville into that slot, hopefully with a win, and confirm NBR's track record with Actress winners. But as I said, a scenario with both actresses nominated would not be unheard of to me.
Something to look for would be BAFTA's category placement of Manville. If they put her Supporting, hell, perhaps she'll be put supporting and perhaps even switch a slot with otherwise-campaigned supporting Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit into that slot. Honestly though, Williams deserves it more.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town


Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush are the only two locks, at the moment. I believe that Bale will ultimately win but that it won't be a smooth journey to that Kodak Theater stage. Andrew Garfield will give them fair competition for the BAFTA though, methinks, considering he's already a past winner at only 27 years old and will likely get another nomination that same night for the Rising Star award (which he stands a fair chance at winning). Not to mention, he's very likely to show up again in the Supporting category for his hauntingly internalized performance in Never Let Me Go. That SAG snub, though? Ouch. I think he'll be nominated, and if he upsets for a BAFTA win in this category then that could really switch this race up. Mark Ruffalo is not only overdue but respected, with The Kids Are All Right being assured views of its screeners that will showcase a performance that caters to all of his acting strengths. Jeremy Renner is an Academy darling, quite frankly, doing plenty of rounds and making himself available for Academy events year-wide (such as announcing the Student Academy Awards). His performance has passion in a film that already has passion, and he's still hot from his breakthrough nomination last year for Best Picture winner (nay, dominator) The Hurt Locker. A John Hawkes nomination for Winter's Bone would also fit perfectly into an Academy narrative, being such an underappreciated character actor in a great Oscar-bait film. It's a narrative that tends to be more successful with the SAG, however, which doesn't often align 20/20 and I don't think the British contingent will let Andrew Garfield (or me) down.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom


Don't mind the rankings. Anyone who has a chance to be nominated has a chance to win, and the only reason I don't have one of the ladies from The Fighter on top is because of the probability of vote splitting between them. And I don't have Hailee Steinfeld's great performance as a precocious young girl in True Grit because voters genuinely don't find her supporting, and like I said earlier, she has some tough competition for that last lead actress slot. Either way, it'll siphon votes from her in both categories. Paramount attached a letter to Academy voters in the screeners sent to them urging them to nominate a performance in both categories if they're not sure of its proper placement. At the same time, however, Academy governors like Tom Hanks have sent out letters urging voters to place performances where they honestly think they should be placed. Could be trouble for this young girl, who's career will probably be bright in any case.

Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Kids Are All Right
2. The King's Speech
3. Inception
4. The Fighter
5. Another Year


Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Social Network
2. True Grit
3. Winter's Bone
4. Toy Story 3
5. The Town


Best Animated Film:
1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist
Read more!