MOB: Final Oscar Predictions

Well, here we are. The last weekend. The last stretch. There's always a worry with Oscar prognosticating — am I being too safe? Too bold? Too biased? There will always be embarrassing choices on your behalf, but over the years I've feel like I've gotten better and better at it. I think for the most part, this year, it's proven to be best to go with the "safe" choices. But, in any slightly open race I'm going to predict an upset that will make me look incredibly foolish when all is said and done, most likely, but it's what my gut tells me and it's what I must dutifully inform this noble blog.







I've already granted you my tech predictions, but I will recount them at the end for y'all with a full set up of my prediction, the most likely alternative and whether or not it's a safe alternative. This will hopefully make it easier for anyone wanting to play this game on their own so that they don't depend on my gutsy moves. But, as for the majors...

Best Original Screenplay



The Hurt Locker seemed to be coming out ahead in recent weeks winning the only precursor known to us voted upon by some Academy members and over Inglourious Basterds. Yes, I do believe that was significant. The BAFTA often proves the deciding factor in close races, and if a frontrunner sweeps at the BAFTAs then it generally means its over and done with (except for Brokeback Mountain but that was a whole set of crazy circumstances that year). But, whether significant or not, there seems to be a lot of false outrage at the film this year for a set of controversies including a nominated producer encouraging voters to place the "500 million dollar film" *hint hint* near the bottom of their ballot so that The Hurt Locker could win (is it that classless? Not worse than most Weinsteinien tactics, plus he's a first time player who didn't know the rules of the game) and military personnel insisting that the character SSG William James is not a realistic personality in the field of IEDs in Iraq (though he was meant to serve more as a personification of general American attitudes going into the war against the more honest "careful" characterization of the actual soldiers around him). Some even insist that the story is too true and plan to sue the makers for basing it on their life. What will this mean? I don't think it comes at the cost of its Picture prize, but I do believe that enough people were false outraged by the controversies that it may have cost Mark Boal his Oscar and tipped the balance for Quentin Tarantino — whose been campaigned the hell out of by Harvey Weinstein going "all the way" and exploding the city of LA with advertisements. It has the support of most film geeks and a great many critics, and with little else in contention for it I think the last string of votes may have gone in slight favor of Inglourious Basterds. But, it's close.

My prediction: Inglourious Basterds
Alternative choice: The Hurt Locker (safe choice)

Best Adapted Screenplay



Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner seem destined for this prize as the consolation for Up in the Air, or, the film that could have been. Initially slated as a frontrunner after the National Board of Review honored it with its top prize (an assumption I always saw as a mistake), it became vastly overshadowed by the story of Avatar in the awards season and through its theatrical run (any other contender — Basterds, Hurt Locker, Precious — all had come out by that point). However, the screenplay received every possible precursor it could have. It even topped Basterds at the Golden Globes (which does not separate Original from Adapted Screenplay). With a WGA and BAFTA also under its belt over closest competitor Precious, the film seems all but certain to nab this prize.

My prediction: Up in the Air
Alternative choice: District 9 (extremely unsafe choice)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role



A lot of people didn't want Mo'Nique to be here. They threw mud slinging articles around calling her a diva, suggesting that she's not respectable enough a figure to honor with an Oscar. There have been calls by assholes like Jeffrey Welles demanding she not be given recognition due to her lack of campaigning (as if that's a lack of respect for the process?). Well, guess what. She's here, baby. And she's here to stay, no matter what the old bitter farts want to say about it. Actually, she's been here for a while. I would say she's been a lock since Sundance last February. She's only gotten stronger since then and is past Ledgerian lock-status at this point, as far as I'm concerned.

My prediction: Mo'Nique - Precious
Alternative choice: None.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role



Ever since the Cannes win, shown above, nothing has stopped Christoph Waltz from steamrolling his way through the awards in the same fashion as Mo'Nique and winning his Oscar. Just imagine how good his speech is going to be — every speech he's given since then can only be assumed as all his rejected ideas for his Oscar speech. He's got something big planned, I can feel it.

My prediction: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Alternative choice: None.

Best Actress in a Leading Role



Uh...bear with me, here. Precursors all point to Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side, but I just don't sense that happening. There seemed to have been a minor backlash of sorts that may have harmed her chances in such an open category. Bullock coming in so late in the season was both a blessing and a curse for her, but easy come easy go. No poll of Oscar voter seems to support the notion that she will win other than her SAG win voted upon by a great deal more of voters than are actually in the acting branch of the Academy. Some would suggest that with Mulligan's BAFTA support, the most she could get out of it is splitting the newcomer vote with Gabby Sidibe. But, assuming Helen Mirren is not a candidate, I feel like the hopes of Meryl Streep's third Oscar guiding her awards season up to that point was let go after her SAG loss. Her BAFTA loss kind of just made her a non-competitor altogether. But there isn't exactly British passion for An Education, only garnering three nominations from the Oscars and no other BAFTA wins aside from her. I feel like Sidibe is not only the most visible of the candidates — making the rounds on every single talk show making every single person possible fall in love with her — but is also in the film that easily has the most support out of the nominees. People point to The Blind Side's Picture nomination as proof-positive that Bullock has this in the bag. What they neglect to mention is that that's The Blind Side's only other nomination, while Precious has hit every single sweet spot needed to be a major Picture contender. Call it...the gut feeling I was referring to earlier on, and feel free to ignore it and blame it on my own bias feeling as if she's the only correct answer for this category, but I just can't feel a mood in Bullock's favor. There's a smell of upset in the air, people want it somewhere, and voters like Quentin Tarantino have made it known in the past that they're heavily considering voting for someone like Gabby. Polls show split votes across the spectrum, small pools of voters chosen do not show passionate support for Bullock. I feel, when all is said and done, thinking with my head, heart, and stomach, that Sidibe is the one who will rise above all of this.

My prediction: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Alternative choice: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side (very safe choice)

Best Actor in a Leading Role



The verdict is in: Jeff Bridges deserves an Oscar for his career, and Crazy Heart is the film he'll deserve it for.

My prediction: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Alternative choice: Colin Firth - A Single Man (safe choice in my dreams)

Best Director



Kathryn Bigelow doesn't want to win just because she's a woman. But she doesn't have to worry about that — she's not winning just because she's a woman. That just makes her a lock to win it.
Who's really going to choose her disliked ex-husband over her? Cameron and Tarantino both even said they're voting for her, with Daniels and Reitman expressing that she richly deserves it.

My prediction: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Alternative choice: None.

Best Picture



And, alas. Here we are. The Hurt Locker has swept the major critics prize of NY, LA and NSFC. It got the Broadcast Film Critic's Choice Awards. It got the BAFTA prize. Yet, people here seem to be feeling an Avatar upset nigh, due to the scandal with the producer and military disapproval. Yes, yes. But did Slumdog lose last year after accusations of child exploitation? Those seem a lot more serious. The answer, of course, was no. Slumdog Millionaire only lost in one category, Sound Editing. It did just fine. Avatar frankly just does not have the numbers to win. In a preferential ballot, those who didn't like it REALLY didn't like it enough to have it rise in the latter rounds of voting. It has guild prizes from the Visual Effects and Sound Editing branches, including split votes from Art Directors. This is who will vote for it. Writers didn't take too kindly, actors don't trust motion capture technology, and it lost the prizes from directors and producers. It depended on the tech branch on even there did it not even manage a double digit nomination count — tying with The Hurt Locker in nominations. And that film is virtually opposite in size and scope. I just do not see it happening. A Basterds upset? Well, Harvey Weinstein sees it. But he always sees it for his film. Inglourious Basterds can very certainly benefit from preferential voting, as there seems to be an odd consensus on the quality of that film. But, it does have its detractors. It's not expected to nab many tech wins. Tarantino's screenplay and Waltz's monumental performance will be rewarded as the film's prizes.

My prediction: The Hurt Locker
Alternative choice: Inglourious Basterds (wildcard)


FULL LIST OF PREDICTIONS (plus AC choices, if they apply)
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (AC: Inglourious Basterds)
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart (AC: Colin Firth - A Single Man)
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious (AC: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo'Nique - Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (AC: The Hurt Locker)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (AC: District 9)
Best Cinematography: The White Ribbon (AC: The Hurt Locker)
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker (AC: Inglourious Basterds)
Best Art Direction: Avatar (AC: Sherlock Holmes)
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Makeup: Star Trek (AC: Il Divo)
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker (AC: Avatar)
Best Sound Editing: Avatar (AC: The Hurt Locker)
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" - Crazy Heart
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: The Secret of Her Eyes - Argentina (AC: The White Ribbon - Germany)
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove (AC: Food, Inc.)
Best Documentary, Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (AC: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province)
Best Short, Animated: A Matter of Loaf and Death (AC: Logorama)
Best Short, Live Action: The Door (AC: The New Tenants)

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MOB: Fantasy Oscars

My full, official predictions of the Academy Awards (finally) will be written up tomorrow, as early as possible. But, if they went my way, here's how I'd dictate it. And then you can compare it to my predictions tomorrow so that most of my likely wrong predictions can be faulted on bias.





My favorite of the Best Picture nominees would probably be Precious, for its blistering honesty and raw poetic filmmaking by Lee Daniels who also managed to lift out mindblowingly advanced performances out of newbies like Gabourey Sidibe and entertainment icons taken less seriously as actors like Mo'Nique and Mariah Carey. However, let's be real. it doesn't face a serious shot at winning here. The only thing that I really do see as a viable opponent to The Hurt Locker is Quentin Tarantino's blistering revisionist historical drama Inglourious Basterds; a film that blurs the lines between truth and fiction, heroism and terrorism, auterist arthouse cinema and box office blockbusters, drama and comedy and horror. Quentin Tarantino currently serves as the single most internationally recognizable of American auteurs in cinema who keeps passion in films alive to this day by delivering Best Picture worthy masterpieces like Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction (for which he got pretty close), and the endlessly underrated installments of Kill Bill, in addition to two other brilliant pieces in Jackie Brown and the Death Proof segment of Grindhouse. Not only his bombastic return to critical and audience credibility that Basterds seems to have jolted his career with, but all the past gross lack of due recognition for his films would make a win for his potential masterpiece actually quite glorious.

But, if it's gonna take the perfectly marvelous filmmaking of The Hurt Locker to beat Avatar, then I'll support it wholeheartedly.

My personal nominees for Best Picture:
1. The White Ribbon
2. Precious
3. Inglorious Basterds
4. (500) Days of Summer
5. A Serious Man
6. A Single Man
7. The Hurt Locker
8. The Cove
9. Up
10. Up in the Air



Similarly as above, my favorite of the nominees here is quite easily Lee Daniels' work in Precious. The divisiveness over his visual imagery (you know, that helped enhanced the story cinematically which is what the medium of film should do in its truest essence but whatever) is a testament to the fulfillment of his goals with this picture. The montage that included the frying foods whenever Precious had horrifying flashbacks of abuse made me feel as perfectly disgusting and disgusted as I already was as Daniels challenged me with this imagery of a not so uncommon scene of child abuse while I sat in my cozy theater seat watching this for the first time at the New York Film Festival. He also perfectly captured the immersion of Precious into her own fantasies and her psychological associations with a certain set of images to the most dreadful of her memories. But maybe his work just hit a little too close to home for folks.
In any case, the lock here is Kathryn Bigelow, and I'll be perfectly pleased when she does so. She tackled her character study of an ugly war so unapologetically and forcefully that, on one level, I was a nervous wreck watching it as a piece of thrilling entertainment war cinema while at the same time pondering the themes of the film she characterizes through Jeremy Renner's character. It's not a film made with the grace of a woman or the grittiness of a man, but simply with the touch of Kathryn Bigelow herself. It's a career pinnacle in a movie more distinctly "her" than any other and she will have fully earned the Oscar statuette that she's going to earn for it.

My personal nominees for Best Director:
1. Lee Daniels - Precious
2. Michael Haneke - The White Ribbon
3. Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
4. Katheryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
5. Tom Ford - A Single Man



Jeff Bridges is a foregone conclusion, and the man will have earned his so called "career" award well for a performance in Crazy Heart that seems to be his most emotionally vulnerable and graceful yet. But I can't make the concessions here that I've made so far. Colin Firth easily cashes in one of the greatest performances of the decade in A Single Man, going through bigger sudden emotional shifts in single takes than Jeff Bridges, the second best of the nominees, did throughout the entirety of Crazy Heart. The compliment of pure emotional vulnerability and delicacy that I'd assign to Bridges performance applies here tenfold. Firth seems to bravely throw all of himself onto this stage where he completely and utterly embodies this character while retaining his distinctively Firthian charm. My jaw dropped upon watching his performance unravel for the first time. He was a man so far on the edge of his rope with an unbroken facade of normalcy typical of his era yet so weighed down with the challenges of ignorance, others' stupidity, his own loneliness, longing and loss. We'd all feel for Jeff Bridges if he lost, but Firth seems to me the only right answer.

My personal nominees for Best Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Colin Firth - A Single Man
2. Michael Stuhlberg - A Serious Man
3. Joseph Gordon-Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
4. Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
5. George Clooney - Up in the Air



Another situation of the "only right choice," Gabourey Sidibe makes her screen debut in a role that's mindblowingly transformative yet seems completely natural. Hollywood has finally taken notice of her infectious enthusiasm and playful joy that does not come across one iota in this film. She's a newcomer to film but she gave the audience a character completely unique, unlike anyone you'll ever see, and develops her in a way that you never take notice of throughout the course of the film until, perhaps, the end, when she's nearly unrecognizable from the Precious we're introduced to at the start.

My personal nominees for Best Actress in a Leading Role:
1. Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
2. Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
3. Zooey Deschannel - (500) Days of Summer
4. Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
5. Natalie Portman - Brothers



The supporting categories seem to be a case, this year, of the frontrunners being simply too good to ignore. Some might note that a Waltz win here would mark the third year in a row where a psychopathic villain has claimed this specific prize. However, this is hardly a performance reminiscent of the symbolically poetic Bardem in No Country for Old Men or ruthlessly and unabashedly over the top as Ledger in The Dark Knight. No, Waltz is evil. There's no question about that. He's indifferent to the Nazi cause and simply hunts after man, well, to get his thrills. However, Waltz manages to imbue this revolting opportunism with eminent likability and charm; charming us before trapping us into this box of unspeakable psychological horror, as if the audience is just another one of his victims in this film. He reads Tarantino's lines like Shakespeare, achieving the near impossible goal of lifting the character so much further out of how it was already written on the page and put his own spin on it (I've read all of Tarantino's scripts including that of this one, and I never would have dreamed of the interpretation Waltz spun Colonel Landa with). What makes his performance the crème de la crème exactly is how much he can communicate on a mental level. He speaks perfectly civilly, but his conversation cannot be mistaken as nothing more than the normal chitchat it sounds like on the surface — he's always playing a game. He always makes it known that he knows everything. And more. Just look at the one-on-one against Mélanie Laurent in the strudel scene — the best of the entire film. Just hear how Waltz delivers the "attendez la crème" line (and you don’t have to be fluent in French to pick this up) — how many times have you heard such a simple, unsuspecting sentence said so charmingly yet menacingly at the same time? These two actors are easily the standout performers in the entire film and they’re only seen together in this one scene. But Tarantino doesn’t direct them in confrontation, like many times you’ll see two acting heavyweights “duking it out” so to speak, but they dance with each other in this duet of perfectly poetic harmony. On one level, Waltz and Laurent put on this charade; but really the two are balancing this underlying second narrative of this psychological cat-and-mouse game that Col. Landa is taunting her with. They both know they’re faking it on the outside. They both know its an act, and neither want to give up their cards. Yet Laurent says so much in her devastatingly profound stare of blankness that shows a helplessness against Landa’s cruelty.

My personal nominees for Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
2. Peter Capaldi - In the Loop
3. Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
4. Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
5. Fred Melamed - A Serious Man



What can I really say about Mo'Nique's performance that hasn't already been said? She creates a woman that truly cannot even be described with the usual words. Monster, deluded, insane, misunderstood — these don't even begin to summarize her. And it's that precise failure to describe that makes Mo'Nique's performance a human triumph. She's communicated this woman to the point where we get her full sense of her flaws and where they come from, and it all emotionally makes sense to the spectator. It works on a viscerally human level where attempting to describe with words is simply futile. At first, we see her as a monstrous mother. She throws shit at her child, forces her to undergo terrible abuse, traps her in the prison of their home under the constant horror of her mental scrutiny and physical pain. The full brunt of her cruelty is seen from that now-famous monologue yelling up at Precious from the bottom of the stairs. Most quoted are the clips from the trailer, but that does not do justice to Mo'Nique's delivery. She gusts with the speed of the most turbulent hurricanes, throwing this thickly suffocating wall of insults and demeaning attacks upon her; starting out as scarily as we'd expect her to be but gradually escalating further and further up to a level of impossible tension that's finally released with her burst up the stairs. This implies the attack ended physically, but it's hard to reckon something being more painful than the things she said at the bottom of those steps and the way she said them. Horrors upon horrors occur, many at her bruising hands, before we get to that climactic scene at the social worker's office. The scene that blows everyone away. The single scene that I have never heard such audible crying from in a public audience. Her tears, her frailty, her whimper. Who was gonna love her? She finally explains herself through reasons that do not go close to justifying any of her mistreatment towards Precious throughout her life, but it comes across as so blisteringly honest in concerns that are too human. It's a jealousy, it's a need to feel loved, it's a resentment of the things that seem to you to have caused the former two to happen. You just cannot feel sympathetic to her knowing all that you do, but you just can't help to feel this pity. This understanding. No matter how shameful it makes you feel for doing so. It's all of Mo'Nique's doing, in her complicated puzzle she pieces together of this woman, despite all her inhumane actions, who is very much human.

My personal nominees for Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
1. Mo'Nique - Precious
2. Mélanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
3. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
4. Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
5. Carey Mulligan - Brothers

Now that I'm winded out from my explanations and seem to have gone through the main categories quite extensively, I'll just go on to list my favorites in the remaining categories.

Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (actual winner: The White Ribbon)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Cinematography: The White Ribbon
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Sherlock Holmes (actual winner: Inglourious Basterds)
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria (actual winner: A Single Man)
Best Makeup: Il Divo (actual winner: A Single Man)
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing: Up
Best Visual Effects: District 9
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Foreign Feature Film: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
Best Short Film, Animated: The Lady and the Reaper (actual winner: The Kinematograph)
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Countdown: Top 5 Music Compositions of the Year

From film, of course.

5) "Stillness of the Mind" by Abel Korzeniowski from A Single Man


The title emits an atmosphere this piece attempts to bring up so beautifully, so resonantly; it has a consistent calm that connects to your still mind but has the flowery flow so distinctive of the character of George in this film. It moves with a poetic grace with hints of scattered blips, hints of chaos, something simmering underneath that George tries to keep buried until the end.

4) "Jake's First Flight" by James Horner from Avatar



I'm none too enthusiastic of an "Avatard," and I'm not shy about that. But this was one of the very few scenes I could point out that made me let go of all inhibitions, all concerns and complaints of thematic content. This was the grand scene of Jake finding his...gigantic Pokémon-looking bird thing, and soaring through the sky. It's the equivalent of Titanic when Rose was brought to the bow of the ship for the first time to behold the majesty of the sea the ship roared through. This, I must give credit to Cameron for due to its swooping power and breathtaking immersion; but the main thing on my mind was this musical piece. It utilized Cameron's ludicrous new language and incorporated it into a theme of empowerment, discovery, acceptance, in the scene that finally recognized Jake as truly one of the Nav'i people. Spectacular.

3) "Clock Tick" by Abel Korzeniowski from A Single Man



Seems engineered for a thrilling trailer, but boy did it accomplish its goals. It gives a sense of urgency through only a few instruments rather simply overlapping into each other to the rhythm of a clock tick (hence the title).

2) "Concerto to Hell" by Christopher Young from Drag Me to Hell



In possibly the most overlooked film of the year, Sam Raimi's brilliant Drag Me to Hell was one of the most memorable theater going experiences of the year thanks to the shocks, thrills, and camp of traditional Raimi horror done right. Crucial to the atmosphere necessary to execute Raimi's vision, Christopher Young was demanded to come up with a score that could compete with the film in creepiness yet still maintain a sense of fun desired out of going to a horror movie. Concerto to Hell is a piece as reminiscent of the most ancient of curses and black magic dealt with in the film that pierces through the most modern of souls who encounter it. It's the threatening screech of the high string notes combined with the foreboding danger in the low chorus that helps it to play on the conventions of horror music and ruthlessly perfect it in an anthem as horrifying as it is exhilarating.


1) "Married Life" by Michael Giacchino from Up



The best collective score in any film this year comes from the reliable Michael Giacchino, whose ode to the emotional ups and downs of a committed relationship is pieced together beautifully in the musical summary of the entire film of Up — "Married Life." One of the most challenging demands of a film composer is to invoke a distinct sense of what makes the movie they're scoring unique and incorporate it into the music, and Giacchino's seamless musical transition from a light carnivalesque background music to a darker, heartbreaking pace of the same music to pull the precise opposite emotional response out of you at any second he pleases. As goes life, as went the life of Up's Carl who lived in unapologetic bliss with his wife Ellie through good times and bad — until the very end when, much like this music, there is an unsettling emptiness.
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MOB: Tech Predictions (Pt. II)

Final installement includes all the audio categories (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Score, Original Song) and Visual Effects.


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There's only one answer for Best Original Score. Michael Giacchino has been a loyal Pixar standby composer for years, coming up with scores that underscore the memorable films themselves and serve as an important sidepiece in films like the deserving Ratatouille (my favorite of that year's nominations). He's had several more noteworthy films scored over the years, including this year with the box office smash hit Star Trek. And then comes Up; his most memorable, his most immersive, his most emotionally resonant work yet. Already iconic in pop culture at this point — most streetgoers would be able to recognize the music if played for them. Every now and then there's just that music from a movie that will be forever remembered, and this one's it. Combined with his body of work from this year and his overdue work in the past (he even scored the Academy Awards themselves one year), I don't see anything beating Up, here.

My prediction: Up



Let's be real, the song with the most exposure tends to win the Best Original Song category. If not, the song with the most visible sequence in its respective film. If not that, then the one by an overdue and respected artist. "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart has all these ingredients, plus a lack of competition. All other film songs have virtually gone unnoticed. Princess and the Frog's songs will split whatever votes they get, no one liked Nine and no one saw Paris 36. The song's lyrics sum up the character the Lead Actor lock Jeff Bridges went through in the film. The song appeared throughout the film in a prominent role as his "comeback" song that represented his struggles the most that were only completed once his struggles were overcome. Ryan Bingham's sexy vocals (to match his exterior) provide a memorable listening experience. And endlessly rehearable. It was sung by A list star Colin Farrell as well, in the film. And T-Bone Burnett is a respected country artist who has done widely praised work that went with cruel snubs in the past like O Brother, Where Art Thou.

So, yeah. Another foregone conclusion.

My prediction: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart



It seemed at first as if Avatar would sweep the audio categories until a recent push suggested that the film was only revolutionary visually, and that it does not deserve such recognition for its audio work. The Hurt Locker, upon reflection, does offer up a much more varied symphony of war sounds. Of the shrapnel that will kill you. The deafening march as each step you take could be over another IED. It adds to its atmosphere that makes you a nervous wreck throughout the film and is an invaluable addition to the nightmarish atmosphere of war — and this war, in particular.
Winning the guild rewarding Sound Mixing, The Hurt Locker stands a good chance at taking yet another statuette away from the Avatar crew; it seems that the people working in the sound department are the majority of who votes for these categories anyways (the vast majority who know less about it have been known to skip over them).

My prediction: The Hurt Locker



One of Avatar's few guild wins came for its work in the art of Sound Editing (for those who can't differentiate — sound mixing is making the sounds themselves and sound editing is how such sounds are applied to the film). It seems that the sound awards will split, throwing yet another bone to Avatar. Though if there's just too much passion for The Hurt Locker, it could win this one as well.

My prediction: Avatar



Avatar's been a lock to win the Visual Effects prize ever since it was announced years ago that Cameron had developed his own technology for this film. Personally, I feel that District 9 utilized its visual effects on a tenth of Avatar's budget far more realistically and more impressively. Not to say that Avatar won't open the door for a lot of movies ready to jump on this new technology, but just because it was introduced here does not mean it was perfected. A lot of the computer generated graphics seemed blurry, very clearly animated (like the characters), and moved unrealistically. Nor did the 3D viewing experience particularly add or take away from the film's viewing experience (was not nearly as immersive as something like say, Coraline). But, my opinion doesn't really matter. This is going to be Avatar's main prize of the night.

My prediction: Avatar

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MOB: Tech Predictions (Pt. I)

Guild awards for all the other techs are coming at rapid speed pace leading up to this Sunday's Academy Awards telecast. We've gone through the majors, now how might the techs shape up?

Predictions for Cinematography, Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup included.





The American Society of Cinematographers rewarded their top prize, surprising to some, to Michael Haneke's Palme D'Or winning masterpiece The White Ribbon. You might recognize another one of the film's shots headlined as my banner at the top of this blog, as it is my favorite film of the year. Much of the film's stark themes to meditate upon come from the cinematography of Christian Berger — easily the most honored cinematographer of this year. Winning all three major critics prizes for cinematography (NY, LA, NSFC) and now taking this, this film that's had doubts all throughout the awards season to take this prize is now emerging as a significant competitor for this richly deserved prize. The ASC winners only seem to match up about half the time, and it usually seems as when a film as underseen as this one takes it, it ultimately loses to a much more popular film.

But, as someone whose always championed this film since seeing it in the New York Film Festival and seeing it as a major competitor among cinematographers — let's take a look at its competition.

Avatar (Mauro Fiore) - Despite having proven a sharp eye for documenting nature through camerawork in the past, Avatar's chances (in all major categories) suffers from a seeming dependence on computer generated technology, and one that might take away from the credibility of the cinematographic work here due to its lack of tradition. If this was nominated, why wasn't something like Ratatouille and WALL·E with even more gorgeous lighting — generated electronically as Avatar was?
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Bruno Delbonnel) - In one of the most inspired nominations of the year, a Harry Potter film has made it into the cinematography category. The film was gorgeously shot with the richly striking colors Delbonnel has shown in past nominated films such as Amèlie, but the film alone stands little chance on the basis of it being a Harry Potter film.
The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackyroyd) - Probably the most widely predicted to win, riding the wave of love this film has seemed to receive this year. However, the Academy has never taken too kindly to films with hand held camerawork.
Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson) - Beloved cinematographer who probably only made it in here by his reputation alone — as wonderfully as the film was shot (with some of the greatest single shots of the year) — but rather subdued for the usual tastes of the Academy.

With so many negatives, The White Ribbon seems like the safest bet with its only weakness being its lack of exposure (could be argued in the literal camerawork sense, but I mean in terms of popularity). But I feel like if Academy voters simply come across any stills of the film, they will find it the most striking and most easily up their alley compared to the rest of the nominees. The film's cinematography is the most baity, and though they haven't usually gone for black and white cinematography lately — it's not like they never have (think Schindler's List).

My prediction: The White Ribbon



In Editing, the ACE Eddie top prize went to (to no surprise) The Hurt Locker. Here is an exception where hand held camera work is particularly considered impressive, as the shots have to all come together with enough speed and pace to create a perfectly puzzled atmosphere. The Hurt Locker's editing makes the audience a nervous wreck from the opening shot to the very last, placing the spectator in the role of these bomb diffusing soldiers whose missions often have very limited time constraints to fatal consequences. Not to mention, war films also tend to do very well here.

Among the other competitors, Avatar is seen as the second most likely option here with the technology Cameron created on his own that required editing each shot to perfection as the film was being made. An impressive feat, to be sure, considering the end result made a nearly three hour film and exhilarating moviegoing experience which felt, to many, as too short. Inglourious Basterds was recognized here, as well, through veteran and common Tarantino collaborator Sally Menke. Here is another war film, approached rather differently from The Hurt Locker, that wonderfully contrasted long shots together with many brief glimpses. Though, again, small details that I think only those in the Editing branch would appreciate.

District 9 seems to be the token summer film found often in this category — a very baitily edited action film experience that made the profound social commentary of the film pass as an eminently enjoyable and empty minded theater going experience. The surprise film here is Precious, a crucial nomination for its overall chances at the show (putting it the exclusive group of only three nominees to nab every important category — picture, directing, acting, writing, editing) though not a very high chance of winning the thing. Like The White Ribbon, I wondered why people were as surprised as they seemed by its nomination considering how baity the editing in the film was. That being said, I was also one of those predicting the more visibly edited Up in the Air to take its place, instead just providing yet another crucial blow to that film.

My prediction: The Hurt Locker



With Avatar slated to not even dominate the technical categories of this year's awards, the general wisdom seems to be that the Academy will throw it a bone in the category of Art Direction. The Art Director's Guild is not a guild that grants one grand prize; instead they divide their prizes by genre. Avatar did win an ADG prize in Fantasy, with The Hurt Locker taking the contemporary category and Sherlock Holmes winning Period Film. The period film genre seems like a much more baity genre for this particular category, and I do get the sense that if the ADG had only handed out one prize — it would have been to the fantastically impressive sets of Sherlock Holmes. I also think that if Avatar faces familiar backlash of digitization here (again, if Avatar could be nominated here why were past Pixar films like Ratatouille and WALL·E so royally snubbed?), that would be to the benefit of Sherlock Holmes. Other nominees include The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (not widely seen), Nine (not widely liked), and costume drama The Young Victoria (which will get its due prize in its costume category).

My prediction: Avatar



Let's look at the past few winners of the category of Costume Design, shall we?

2008: The Duchess
2007: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
2006: Marie Antoinette

Anyone spotting a trend, here? Royalty costume drama The Young Victoria (by twice past winner Sandy Powell) should take it rather easily, here. It's closest competitor would have been also two time winner Colleen Atwood for Nine had that film gained more traction.

My prediction: The Young Victoria



After the shock snub of expected winner District 9, here, it seems like the follow up winner would be the one with the most exposure — Star Trek. Il Divo seems like a largely unseen film, though with impressive looking makeup, and could win if only makeup artists who've seen the film vote in this category (many voters who don't know enough about techs largely skip them). The Young Victoria managed a BAFTA win, whose support for what I'm assuming is mostly the hairwork done here could also bring it to a win.

Without a makeup guild, to my knowledge, I'll just go with the most popular and seen film for the time being.

My prediction: Star Trek

Coming up: Tech predictions Pt. II! Audio awards (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score and Song) and Visual Effects to be included!

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