MOB: Oscar Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

We close this series (for now) with yet another pretty secure race. If the BAFTAs this weekend shape anything up, I'll update my stats with some hopefully more exciting numbers. But, for now:

1. Up in the Air - 60%
2. Precious - 25%
3. District 9 - 10%
4. An Education - 5%
5. In the Loop - 0%





Consolation award for Up in the Air, whose chances for BP are more or less dead at this point, and recognition to Jason Reitman as an up-and-comer who has already provided us with three definitive comedy classics of the decade in the footsteps of his father. Does Sheldon Turner deserve to share his credit? Probably not, and Jason Reitman agrees. But I don't think he's showing his sour feelings about it. This should be able to go on to win the WGA and then the Oscar.



This race isn't locked but it's nowhere near as open as its Original counterpart. Precious — a film which did not miss out on a single significant nomination (in precursors and actual Oscars themselves, unlike Up in the Air) — has proven itself loved in the Hollywood community. But it'll likely get its consolation prize in the form of Mo'Nique's history making monstrosity of a Supporting performance; but if it ends up surprising in a bit of a sweep, it'll could possibly pick up this one in conjunction with a major Sidibe upset.



The well written among the Sci-Fi nominees for Best Picture this year, District 9 boasts support in both commercial appeal and artistic achievement. It's as enjoyable as it is thought provoking, as heartfelt as it is adrenaline pumping. If people pop in the screener or DVD for a rewatch maybe they'll be able to catch up on some of the unsubtle political imagery and commentary on apartheid, class relations, and bureaucratic science and reward its thematically rich screenplay with a prize here. It's an uphill climb against the two BP contenders, though.



It'll have supporters in the Academy's formidable British contingency, but this film performed well in neither box office nor precursors this year, including nabbing only 2 other Oscar nominations aside from this. BAFTAs will have to serve as a consolation prize.



It was great to see this foul mouthed political party film make the cut, but that in itself will have to serve as its reward.

Up next: BAFTA mania this weekend! Predictions tomorrow, results and analysis the next!