MOB: SAG noms

So I lied, SAG nominations were actually announced this morning and not yesterday as my previous post suggested. I didn't do so swell on my predictions...

So, Up in the Air missed out on an Ensemble nomination. Considering this got three acting nominations, I think this is a significant blow to the movie that was considered the frontrunner to win Best Picture after its NBR win. Recently, the SAG have been showing Best Ensemble to be akin to its Best Picture category, giving movies like No Country for Old Men and Slumdog Millionaire the wins most likely just because they liked the movies themselves the best. With three acting noms for Clooney, Kendrick and Farmiga, it seems like the actors love the actors but probably don't love the movie itself. And actors make up the largest branch of the entire Academy. Not a single movie has won Best Picture without a nomination here (Bravehart). It'll definitely be nominated, but doesn't seem like it can win.

The nominations themselves were An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Nine, and Precious. Very good news for Inglourious Basterds, good for Precious which I'd say is in the lead to win with a possible sweep. Actor was pretty predictable — Bridges, Clooney, Firth, Freeman, Renner. Probably the Oscar five. Win here is very uncertain but I do think most overdue veteran of all Jeff Bridges will take it for Crazy Heart.
Actress was also predictable and predicted — Bullock, Mirren, Mulligan, Sidibe, Streep. Streep seems to be the frontrunner here, but she just won last year. Bullock has a shot being loved in the community, and Mulligan's film was surprisingly included in the Ensemble list, but I think this will go to Sidibe. Mostly based on the love for the film itself (An Education got Ensemble but missed out on veteran Molina for Supporting Actor, and obviously The Blind Side ain't going anywhere).
Supporting Actor matched the Globes with Damon, Harrelson, Plummer, Tucci, Waltz. Molina's snub here really hurts, and I think shows a telling lesser passion for the movie that might allow Mulligan to have a win here. Waltz will obviously win.
And then Supporting Actress went to Cruz, Farmiga, Kendrick, Mo'Nique, and the inspired shock choice of Diane Kruger for Inglourious Basterds. This shows an enthusiasm for the film that shows a) that Mélanie Laurent probably would have been nominated had she been campaigned here, which could help her chances in this very category come Oscar time and b) that the film could launch itself to a very deserved Ensemble win. I'm still sticking with Precious, though.

So, more or less, what does this tell us. In my opinion, I think it means that Up in the Air simply will not win. Reitman's screenplay will be this film's reward. Otherwise, not much. The Actor and Actress slots might be locked in, and this could prove a deciding factor in who will win the Oscar there (it seems like we already know in the Supporting categories). But, even though the actors make up the largest branch in the Academy (and all of the actors are obviously in the Screen Actor's Guild), the Academy-voting members themselves make up the smallest proportion to their guild than any other guild.