MOB - Golden Globes Predictions

Me: soo will I be really pathetic for getting up early just to watch the golden globe nominations be announced? because I think I might
Tommy: no that's fun!

...success.

Golden Globe Predictions.
These silly things are always tough to figure out. Who is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, anyways? And why do they matter? Fact of the matter is...they really don't.

They're influence initially spanned from being one of actually just a few award bodies handing out honors to films of the year. Now they are just one of many, so at this stage they are nothing more than a pyramid from which to worship the highest and most successful of Hollywood stars. And that is the single most important factor I take into account when calculating predictions for such things.

Does it matter in the long run? Probably not. But it could mean a lot in terms of spear heading buzz for a particular film or performance at just the right time (see: Marion Cotillard).

Best Picture - Drama

One silly thing they do is split the films into two categoires - Drama and Comedy/Musical. So, basically, "serious" films and the all the others. Though the placements a lot of times are rather questionable (Up in the Air in Drama? Walk the Line in Comedy/Musical?). But here we are, with this bitch of a category.

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Up in the Air

How did I come upon this final list? Well, apparently they want apeshit for Avatar during early screenings just for them. They're obsessed with Quentin Tarantino, a lot more than the Academy, so for his best shot at Oscar fame since Pulp Fiction in his single most financially successful (really important) film and best critically reviewed (pretty important) since the start of his career, an Inglorious nomination here is, as Dave Karger says, a "foregone conclusion." They seem to really enjoy Precious and Up in the Air as major Oscar frontrunners, with heavy respect for the well campaigned to them Hurt Locker. Also, they're one of many suckers for Clint Eastwood. By virtue of its Eastwoodian nature, Invictus should make it.

Normally there should only be five slots for this category, but there is so much here to offer from and ties are not uncommon — stretching the category to six and sometimes even seven nominees. But that still leaves out films which are right up their alley with international flair, like An Education and Bright Star. If any of these get in with such tight space, it would be at the cost of a shocking omission like Precious, which the Globes seem to LIKE but are not obsessed with.

Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
(500) Days of Summer
Julie & Julia
It's Complicated
Nine
A Serious Man

I'll stick with five here, at the price of some seemingly obvious choices (like The Hangover), but here's my list nevertheless. (500) Days of Summer made respectable box office numbers with a lightweight tone and beautiful young Hollywood starlets. Kind of reminds me of Vicky Christina Barcelona, which actually won this category last year at the Globes. Between the two Meryl movies, Julie & Julia is the more buzzed film and performance, but with HFPA screening Complicated tonight, it might stay fresh in their minds as a hip and potentially commercial flick with more Hollywood starpower.The HFPA always seems to go for the big budgeted musical (Chicago, Sweeney Todd, etc.), to which Nine seems right up their alley and on track to get the most nominations. The film, however, is wildly divisive and though I think they'll nominate it this year, it won't be with much passion or enthusiasm. And A Serious Man has the Coen name which the Globes show respect for, and is one of the best reviewed films of the year.

Best Actor (Drama):

More than the other categories, their obsession with star power and attracting ratings to their yearly telecast helps the most in predicting their recognition of the year's acting.

Brad Pitt - Inglorious Basterds
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Johnny Depp - Public Enemies
Colin Firth - A Single Man
George Clooney - Up in the Air

Gaga for Tarantino, gaga for Pitt, they should manage to commit horrendous category fraud here and put Pitt into their lineup. If they like Invictus at all, Freeman will be nominated, as he seems to be the heart and soul of the movie. They love Depp, and Public Enemies was a successful summer flick in spite of critical backlash. A Single Man has an international appeal in its stylish appearance in the vein of Wong Kar Wai, and enough critical praise for Firth here to put him in a strong running for the win here and at the Oscars. And just the other day did we see the HFPA palling around and having a drink or two with their great friend — George Clooney.

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

Joseph Gordon-Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Robert De Niro - Everybody's Fine
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey, Jr. - Sherlock Holmes

Much thinner crop here, perhaps, but it is what it is. Gordon-Levitt giving one of my favorite performances of the year might account for some prejudice here, but my actual winner right now in the category, Michael Stuhlberg, does not see a deserved nomination here for A Serious Man. Again, starpower starpower starpower. Joseph Gordon-Levitt's respect in the indie circuit as it stands, his boyish good looks and absolute electric energy in Days commands respect, and the Globes love young up and comers as much as established Hollywood heavy hitters — like Robert De Niro. Just saying. Matt Damon has the baitiest role in this category, arguably, for which he put on about 40 pounds, and would be the frontrunner to win here. Daniel Day-Lewis should prove to be a lock just by riding the Nine bandwagon (that might or might not exist) while Robert Downey, Jr. is strong in the reboot of his career and dependable pull at the box office.

Best Actress (Drama):
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria

For the sake of time, no more explanations. Young starlets, heavy performances, and Helen Mirren (Golden Globes are OBSESSED). End. Potential spoiler in Shohreh Aghdashloo and Sandra Bullock.

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical):
Zooey Deschannel - (500) Days of Summer
Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal

Obsessed with young starlets (Deschannel), obsessed with Meryl, might be obsessed with Nine, obsessed with Hollywood stars (Bullock).

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Peter Saarsgard - An Education
Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Matt Damon - Invictus
Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia
Jude Law - Sherlock Holmes

I could be COMPLETELY off, here.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Natalie Portman - Brothers
Penélope Cruz - Nine
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Best Director:
James Cameron - Avatar
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Lee Daniels - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Best Screenplay:
An Education
Inglorious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up in the Air

Best Original Song:
"I See You" - Avatar
"Winter" - Brothers
"Cinema Italiano" - Nine
"I Can See in Color" - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
"Almost There" - The Princess and the Frog

Best Original Score:
Amelia
Avatar
Nine
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Best Foreign Language Film:
Baaria
Lebanon
Un Prophète
Samson and Delilah
The White Ribbon

Best Animated Film:
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up