Major Oscar Buzz - NBR

So one cool thing some blogs do is have reoccurring themes. This is one of them, named after mine and my roommate's describing of most good things in the world as having "major Oscar buzz." Although, for our purposes, the phrase will be more literal, and might eventually be referred to as the kickass abbreviation "MOB."

So...the 2010 Academy Awards, rewarding the films of a rather underwhelming 2009, will occur in...March 2010. So it's a bit early. But what's the state of it as it is?

Everything after the cut is my blathering on the National Board of Review, first (real) awards handed out in the season. Aside from NBR, all's quiet on this front. MOB will explode, however, after this week with LA Film Critics Awards Sunday, NY Film Critics on Monday, Golden Globe nominations on Tuesday and Screen Actor's Guild predictions on Wednesday. And, don't be mistaken, they are all extremely important to the upcoming flow and trends of the Oscar season. I will explain to all the noobs what exactly they are and why they're all important (of them the Golden Globes being the least important), with maybe some updates on some other stupid awards in between like the DC Film Critics Awards which happened yesterday. Here is a handy calendar of the season to get you caught up, as I will be rushing to get predictions for all the aforementioned ready this week.

The first real awards essentially kickstarting the season was brought to us by the National Board of Review (or NBR) on the 3rd. How legitimate is this group? Their legitimacy is based upon the fact that their awards are usually the first in the season and can be a valuable jumpstart on the campaigns of certain films to Oscar glory.



Major winner here was presumed frontrunner Up in the Air. Best Film, Best Actor - George Clooney (tied with Morgan Freeman for Invictus), Best Supporting Actress - Anna Kendrick and Best Adapted Screenplay.
The past two winners of the top prize, Slumdog Millionaire and No Country for Old Men, began their sweeps of their respective awards seasons here and went on to repeat success at the Academy Awards. Otherwise, though, the NBR's track record is not spectacular.

NBR Best Film vs. Oscar Best Picture, 2000 - 2006
2000: Quills vs. Gladiator
2001: Moulin Rouge! vs. A Beautiful Mind
2002: The Hours vs. Chicago
2003: Mystic River vs. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2004: Finding Neverland vs. Million Dollar Baby
2005: Good Night, and Good Luck vs. Crash
2006: Letters from Iwo Jima vs. The Departed

So, clearly doesn't mean much; however, every single one of those (with the exception of Quills) was nominated for Best Picture that year (so, everyone — Up in the Air is in), there seems to be somewhat of a trend lately with No Country and Slumdog nabbing the prizes, and the eventual winner usually manages to make the NBR list of the Top 10 (really, top 11 including the actual Best Film winner) Films of the year, which should be particularly helpful this year with the extended list of 10 Best Picture nominees at the Academy Awards.

NBR's Top 11 this year went as follows:
UP IN THE AIR (the rest in alphabetical order)
AN EDUCATION
(500) DAYS OF SUMMER
THE HURT LOCKER
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
INVICTUS
THE MESSENGER
A SERIOUS MAN
STAR TREK
UP
WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

All caps and general referencing brought to you by National Board of Review.

In any case...see anything missing? Yes. Snubbed by this years list include awaited Peter Jackson adaptation The Lovely Bones, Nine, and, most shockingly, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (otherwise considered one of the frontrunners in this year's award season). But, though I did say that the eventual Best Picture winners do usually make this top 10, winners in the past who didn't include A Beautiful Mind and 11 time Academy Award winner (a.k.a. tied with only two others for the most in history) The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. NBR doesn't seem to like Peter Jackson very much.



Someone they do seem to have a lot of love and admiration for, however, is Clint Eastwood. As you can see, both Mystic River and Letters from Iwo Jima managed to nab the top prize this decade, while shocking the awards-following community last year by receiving an Actor prize for Gran Torino. And, his only top Oscar winning film, Million Dollar Baby, did crack it's top 10/11 for 2004. And, this year, they very predictably decided to give him his first Best Director award from them for Invictus, along with Morgan Freeman for Best Actor — again, tied with Clooney.
I bring that up to also mention their love affair with George Clooney. They gave his directed film, Good Night, and Good Luck the top prize in '05 and went on to give him Best Actor in 2007 for Michael Clayton over Daniel Day-Lewis' triumph in There Will Be Blood — lately popping up at the top of many lists as giving the single greatest performance of this decade. So, don't look too into any of these men's triumphs here as a lot of it was based on personal obsessions. But we can still break down the numbers, here.

70% of NBR's winners for Best Actor were nominated, and 40% won. One could safely nudge in both Clooney and Freeman into their nomination slots at this year's awards, but they may very well end up being overshadowed by more critical sensations Jeff Brides (Crazy Heart) and Colin Firth (A Single Man) with the later precursors this month.

And since I'm getting kind of tired of talking about NBR (in reality, they really don't merit this much consideration), I'll just glaze over the rest of the winners. Best Actress went to Carey Mulligan for An Education. Not a single winner of this prize has gone without Oscar nominations in the past ten years, but only three of them (Mirren's monstrous sweep and Roberts/Berry way back in the day) went on to win the prize. Not looking good for the win, but looking damn good for the nomination. I'll be the first to brag about predicting Woody Harrelson's "surprise" win for The Messenger in Supporting Actor — of which 90% go on to be nominated for but only 20% win. Will he beat Christoph Waltz's dark charm in Inglourious Basterds? Probably not, but especially in such a weak year for the category with his respect in Hollywood, success this year with Zombieland and 2012, and going without a nomination for well over a decade now, ON TOP OF THAT combined with the impeccable reviews for the film...expect it. Anna Kendrick beat Mo'Nique for Best Supporting Actress, but only half of the winners here manage to nab nominations and only Penélope Cruz last year managed to win both this and the Oscar since 1996. Mo'Nique can sleep comfortably for now.

Last few notes — Coens grabbed a very deserved Screenplay prize for A Serious Man (with a weak year, it should make it to the Oscars as well) and the single prize granted to Precious was for Gabourey Sidibe in Breakthrough Actress. In this category's short-lived history, Ellen Page and Viola Davis both went on to be nominated for an Oscar. Good news. For more on why Precious may have missed out, read Roger Friedman's theory on Geoffry Fletcher, writer of Precious and former member of the NBR, put on their black list (not for that reason!) for quitting the organization. Payback's a bitch, eh?