MOB - Christmas Predictions

By my count here, Inglourious Basterds leads with 9 nominations.

Best Picture:
Avatar
(500) Days of Summer
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Alternates here would be Nine, but with it's overwhelmingly negative response I think something more respected like (500) Days of Summer will bypass it as the virtual tenth spot.

As for the win, it's one of the most exciting races. The winner basically comes down to what the five nominees would have been: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air. Hurt Locker and Up in the Air have been getting the lion's share of the critics awards before we get into the actual Hollywood precursors, which I would see as generally a bad sign with any open Best Picture race. I think the heat for both of these movies could easily sizzle out by the time Oscar voting rolls around (later this year than normal as of recent) and though both have been getting the critics awards, none of them are being touted as definite wins (a la Slumdog or No Country).

I actually think the single movie gaining the most buzz as of late is Inglourious Basterds, slowly building its buzz throughout the critics rewards thus far (it's the most winningest movie overall of all the contenders as of now). It would solve the Academy's problem of rewarding a mainstream movie, but it would also be appreicated by critics more than something mainstream like Avatar. Avatar is getting some extraordinary notice as of late, but it's not quite being well received for its storyline which could hurt it. I also think its computerized novelty prevents it from many possible nominations (acting, cinematography, costume design, etc.) that Inglourious Basterds could take and make it the most nominated movie of the year.

A lot of it could depend on the guilds. I do think Precious will win the SAG (screen actors guild) ensemble award, but Inglourious has a very good shot at it. Those two are tied for the most nominated (3) of the SAGs while being nominated for Ensemble (as opposed to Up in the Air, which could prove a deadly blow). Both movies are assured one major category each (Supporting Actor for Inglourious and Supporting Actress for Precious). Aside from Ensemble, Basterds' only other chance at a SAG win is in Supporting Actress which we've already established is off limits (Mo'Nique is unmovable). Whereas Precious' other win could come in Lead Actress with Sidibe. Streep won her first movie SAG just last year, whereas the only other contender with an Ensemble nomination to her film is Carey Mulligan — though a shocking Molina snub may suggest less passion for An Education than something like Precious.

As for the other guilds, Katheryn Bigelow will still win her DGA (Directors Guild Award) for The Hurt Locker, ultimately following in a similar vein of Picture/Director splits where the epic movie takes Director while the more light hearted and mainstream fare takes Picture. This could apply to Avatar, Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. I do think Up in the Air seems like more PGA fare, but if Inglourious Basterds manages to take it with the help of an urgency to reward veteran producer Lawrence Bender, and also takes the SAG, that will give it an obvious edge in terms of major Hollywood Guild awards that ultimately vote for the Academy Awards (in addition to its likely WGA [writer's guild award] for Original Screenplay, in addition to Up in the Air in adapted).

It doesn't always quite work, though, like in the close Best Picture race of 2006. Little Miss Sunshine took the WGA, PGA, and SAG award while the eventual winner, The Departed, had its DGA and WGA. Its deciding factor could have been Scorsese's director lock, just as The Hurt Locker will not be ignored for its masterful direction by a female (the chances this year to give it to Bigelow are just too good). But, in any case, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

In close races such as this one, the actual race for the nominees seem rather boring. These five, also the SAG nominees, seem pretty locked in. Veteran Jeff Bridges could take it by virtue of being well overdue, already with several nominations over close to 40 years in the business. Worked with many, and veterans could be unstoppable unless faced against a sweeper (the reason Peter O'Toole lost to Forest Whitaker and Hal Holbrooke lost to Javier Bardem). There don't seem to be sweepers here, though George Clooney seems to (bafflingly, in my mind) be taking the lion's share of critics awards. Then again, he took many for Michael Clayton as well and the Academy just gave it to this relatively young superstar only a few years ago. But without a SAG ensemble nod with this movie, I don't think Up in the Air has nearly as much Hollywood support as the precursors are making it seem. Especially among actors. For this, I think Adapted Screenplay will be its only reward.

Colin Firth, in my opinion the best performance here and one of the best of the decade, is getting some smaller awards. He seems to be in third place, strong contender for the BAFTA (British members of the Academy sometimes being the deciding factor in close races). If Bridges and Clooney split, it's conceivable that Firth can take it. The whole "fizzling out" theory could also help him, where the buzz for the likes of Bridges and (especially) Clooney could be too soon. I'm predicting several noms including a Picture mention (perhaps wishful thinking) for the sauve A Single Man, but unless with some strong support (a Tom Ford nomination or a Julianne Moore one) I don't know if the film itself has enough love to give Firth a win. The nomination could be his reward.

Freeman has plenty of love in Hollywood and the Academy, as evidenced by his very few precursors before winning Supporting for Million Dollar Baby. Here is an undeniable veteran in a role seemingly tailor-suited for him to win a Lead Oscar. Many see the fact that he doesn't have a Lead Oscar as being enough of a mistake. Clint Eastwood is good at bringing his actors some statues (Penn, Robbins, Swank, Freeman). He could also benefit from a Bridges/Clooney split, or could be considered more of a "veteran" than Bridges and more of a beloved Hollywood figure than Clooney. However, Invictus has made underwhelming box office so far and the film itself isn't looking like it'll do too swell in terms of the general Oscar race. Could be the Frank Langella of the year.

Which brings us to Jeremy Renner. Commanding presence, but subtle performance. Subtle, younger, rather unknown actor in Hollywood. Does not usually translate into Oscar success. Probably only in here based upon the love for his film. But if the film stays hot throughout the season, becoming a virtual sweeper in the actual Oscars, then he could become an Adrien Brody of this year. Up against four, better known (some veteran) actors in the business. Could benefit from vote splitting and vote siphoning.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

As we wear on, this category used to be as exciting as the actor category. As opposed to the precursors there, however, it seems like this has already established a winner. Meryl Streep, unrewarded for 27 years in what would have itself made a fantastic and worthy career, goes against an unknown little british girl, a fat young black NSYNC fan, a woman who took every possible award known to man three years ago, and Sandra Bullock. It's a biopic of a beloved international figure, and Streep already has a supposedly great comedic performance in a Nancy Meyers flick under her belt this year.

I guess we could have figured this one out, in hindsight, but that was back when we didn't think Julie & Julia was exactly a critics charmer. She could have easily gotten several Hollywood awards, but it also seems like she's in the lead with critics trying to influence the Oscar race as well. Carey Mulligan could have major Brit support as people there seem to be gaga for An Education, and I already mentioned how Precious steam could rebuild especially with a possible SAG for Sidibe. Sandra Bullock could also take that SAG, however, in a film much more mainstream and with much more box office than any other movie here to gloat. I think Mirren's the most vulnerable one here in an underseen film, but with her scenery chewing and leftover good will from The Queen, I don't think Emily Blunt will do much vote siphoning from her.

Unless something goes terribly wrong for this woman, who just recently finally admitted that it could be NICE to win another Oscar instead of going to these things every year to disappointment, no one's taking Meryl's Oscar away.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Alfred Molina - An Education
Stanley Tucci - Julie & Julia
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

The more obvious the win, the more interesting the race to the nominations are. By the time the nominations are announced, the contest in this category is caput. Christoph Waltz's commanding presence as a Nazi who's as utterly evil as he is completely charming and likable will not be overtaken. He has his Cannes, he has his sweep of the critics awards, he will get his SAG, his Golden Globe and his BAFTA. End of story.

Damon, in a very well respected performance in The Informant! should get a body of work nom for this film much more likely for Oscar success (unless there's a major Tommy Lee Jones-esque shocker), also being beloved in Hollywood and not nominated since 1998 (when he won for his writing skills, imagine that). Woody Harrelson also had a good year with Zombieland and 2012, in a film and performance with near unanimous critical praise and not nominated in even longer than Matt Damon. Alfred Molina's got some pretty painful snubs so far with the Globes and SAG, but I think the British vote could still secure him a nomination here over Plummer, whom I don't think is seen as very overdue in the Academy since he doesn't even have a single nomination to his name and is in a very underseen film. If Tucci doesn't get in at all for The Lovely Bones (which was a perfectly lovely fail of a film), then he'll get in for box office hit Julie & Julia.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mélanie Laurent - Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique - Precious
Samantha Morton - The Messenger

Pretty self-explanatory, here. Mo'Nique's going to win, whether anyone (including herself) likes it or not. Farmiga and Kendrick are pretty safe. The rest between the Laurent, Morton (both mentioned here), Cotillard, Cruz, Moore, Gyllenhaal, are pretty much in a crapshoot. Harvey Weinstein recently switched Laurent's campaign from Lead to Supporting when it became clear from the SAG's recognition of Diane Kruger that Laurent would have been recognized had she been placed there. This could cause some splits and confusion, but if people can vote for her in Supporting I think they will (over Kruger, anyways). Morton does not have much precursor support but she never has whenever she's gotten all two of her nominations, and this is a very well received film that will be seen thanks to Woody Harrelson. I think Moore's snub at the SAG was a virtual kiss of death, I think there might not be enough Nine support to carry Cruz and too much category confusion with Cotillard (whose Weinstein-endorsed lead campaign stays in place). Gyllenhaal just recently got placed Supporting as the Lead category tightened up, and I could see her as a potential surprise. Her film, however, is getting lackluster reviews and the campaign placement could very well be too late for this young, already overdue actress.

If there ever is going to be a surprise in the nominations it will be where there is a heavy frontrunner. Mo'Nique and Waltz, for example, are sweeping and will take the majoirty of the #1 votes on the Academy's weighted ballot. This means that the rest of the list could be anything. As I said, the possibility of Maggie Gyllenhaal cracking Supporting is not unheard of. If there's enough Hurt Locker passion, then someone like Anthony Mackie (as good as Jeremy Renner) could crack the Supporting list. Even someone with enough Hollywood power like Natalie Portman could make a Supporting list for Brothers, as divisive as the film may be.

Best Original Screenplay:
(500) Days of Summer
Inglorious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
A Serious Man
Up

These have been pretty safe for a while.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
An Education
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
A Single Man
Up in the Air

This is completely hard to say, since as opposed to the Original race, the winner here is clearly apparent (Up in the Air). I think Precious has a pretty safe home, here, but anything beyond that could go to a lot of the basically disappointing Oscar contenders mostly based on material (Nine, Invictus) or go to more critically friendly summer fare (District 9). But what I got here is a combination of movies that I think will be well received and generally approved by writers.

Best Animated Film:
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Monsters vs. Aliens
Up

This race is essentially Up vs. Fantastic Mr. Fox. If Up gets its predicted Best Picture slot, the race is over. If Fantastic Mr. Fox also manages one, in addition to Adapted Screenplay (while Up is expected in Original Screenplay), then we'll have a horse race on our hands. Other than that, I think you can never underestimate the power of big business (hence the Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs and Monsters vs. Aliens). I think Coraline's meticulous craft will be honored, as well.

Best Cinematography:
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
A Single Man

Veterans at the helm of Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man, baity camera work in Bright Star and The Hurt Locker, and I think we got four guarantees. A Single Man is a rather random guess, but I do think it will be one of the smaller contenders of the sort.

Best Editing:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

Basically what the five Best Picture contenders would have looked like. No film has been able to win Best Picture without a nomination here (what many foresaw as the kiss of death for Brokeback Mountain) since 1981. But the editing in all of these movies are rather flashy to begin with (big budget success, two war movies including a summer sensation, and you're just going to have to see the last two to know what I'm talking about). Expect the more serious war flick to win, here.

Best Costume Design:
Bright Star
Inglorious Basterds
Nine
A Serious Man
The Young Victoria

Mostly period pieces, token musical, and then one for what seems to be a growing trend in more recent time periods (most specifically the 70s, and even more specifically in A Serious Man).

Best Art Direction:
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Inglorious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man

Harry Potter's always a good bet in this category this decade, with beautiful sets in Avatar, a tragically overdue veteran in Inglourious Basterds, another flashy musical and the suave Tom Ford sensibilities evident in A Single Man.

Best Visual Effects:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Out of the visual effect shortlist, I think these three films all commercially successful and praised in both story and visual effects should be able to make it in.

Best Makeup:
District 9
The Road
Star Trek

Avatar didn't use much makeup, so I'm thinking they'll honor the artists who made Viggo Mortenson look really dirty.

Best Original Score:
Avatar
The Informant!
The Princess and the Frog
A Single Man
Up

A wide variety of sounds, some proven (the Disney duo and epic James Horner collaboration with James Cameron) and others that could be more "different" (...the rest).

Best Original Song:
"The Weary Kind" - Crazy Heart
"Cinema Italiano" - Nine
"I Can See In Color" - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
"Almost There" - The Princess and the Frog
"All is Love" - Where the Wild Things Are

I'm just putting "Weary Heart" here since so far the precursors who seem to like Bridges also seem to like this song. But it seems kind of similar to "The Wrestler" last year where it didn't even make the quality cut from the music branch. They love their 2D Disney, urban sensations, and original songs for prior musicals. The Karen O. mention could very well be wishful thinking, but it seems up their alley.

Best Sound Mixing:
Avatar
District 9
Nine
Star Trek
Up

I usually keep Pixar as a token bet in the sound categories, while the others are usually more commercially successful flicks.

Best Sound Editing:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up

Again, token Pixar. Token commercial sensation. Token war flick. Avatar should sweep most of the techs it can but I think The Hurt Locker will also find a reward here.

Best Foreign Language Film:
I Killed My Mother - Canada
Mother - Korea
Un Prophete - France
Samson & Delilah - Australia
The White Ribbon - Germany

Total guesses.