Not posting much; just waiting to slug through all the festival screenings and whatnot (Venice and Telluride now, NY and Toronto later). Here's a rundown of that basic buzz: Black Swan and 127 Hours are a hit, The King's Speech is perfect for awards, The Way Back might be too good for awards, Never Let Me Go is pretty solid (especially Mulligan), and...that looks to be about it so far. So who makes it and who doesn't? Only time will tell, but here are my first published predictions of the year.
I'll keep this in alphabetical order, to avoid contradictions and generally making a fool out of myself.
Best Picture:
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back
The weakest bet here so far is Inception, but playing the numbers game I think it'll end up having too much tech support to lose — plus, we'll be reminded of his buzz and how ~overdue~ Nolan is by the time the DVD release comes out in Januaryish. The Tree of Life is a huge question mark, here.
Best Director:
Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Mike Leigh - Another Year
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network
Peter Weir - The Way Back
I know I said The Way Back might not be the Academy's cup of tea, but it might not have to matter considering how beloved Weir is. If it does get in, I'm predicting it gets in on the strength of his name, alone, and the championing of loyal blogger fans with some sway in these kinds of races. The most unsure one, to me, is probably Mike Leigh. Though nominated quite a bit, Another Year is starting to look a bit quiet compared to the contenders coming out of these film festivals. I'm saying he gets the British support this year he didn't quite get for Happy-Go-Lucky, even if buzz on his film is waning.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
James Franco - 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Michael Douglas - Solitary Man
Hopefully Blue Valentine could regain some of its buzz again after its Toronto and Venice screenings, but until then (like Another Year), it's looking a bit quiet for what the Oscar Buzz machine seems to be eager to feed on this year. Get Low is a smaller scale summer release but voters can be expected to be inundated with screeners once the DVD (should) come around prime voting time with constant reminders of Robert Duvall's status in town. Michael Douglas has a well reviewed Wall Street sequel under his belt along with surprising news of throat cancer. That, combined with the few people who saw and loved his intense Solitary Man could well get him a surprise nomination. Colin Firth is the frontrunner here, though.
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Lesley Manville for Another Year
Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine
Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
Carey Mulligan for Never Let Me Go
I'm a bit uneasy about having three starlets in this category, but I'm going by specific predictions and can't think of that kind of larger trend. People keep speculating that Lesley Manville could open it up a bit by going to the much weaker Supporting category, but as far as I see no one whose seen the film seems to be considering her anything less than lead. Annette Bening...is pretty safe here. The three starlets are the biggest question mark, but with Mulligan and Williams each having another performance of faint praise under their belt this year (Wall Street 2 and Meek's Cutoff, respectively), I think they could both make it in. And then I think Portman can get in on a wave of enthusiasm for her film. Plus, she's kind of getting into vet territory, right? I mean, she came on the scene at least a good 16 years ago.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Sam Rockwell for Conviction
Christian Bale for The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech
Ed Harris for The Way Back
This would be a great opportunity for the Academy to recognize the young up and comers from this generation. Rockwell, Bale, and Ruffalo all have strong fanbases in the more meatheady film fan universe (who will further demand recognition for David Fincher and Christopher Nolan, etc.). But those three are just starting their journey to be of Ed Harris level of overdue, who should be able to win this one if the film gains some semblance of popular traction.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Barbara Hershey - Black Swan
Helen Mirren - Brighton Rock
Whoopi Goldberg - For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow Is Enuf
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Dianne Wiest - Rabbit Hole
This category is so damn weak that I'm reduced to predicting a performance from a Tyler Perry film. But with Lionsgate moving up the release date to qualify this year, it seems like they have some confidence for the film, and I think this is the best category to throw that film a bone in the form of filler. So this category's filled with veteran character actresses of yesteryear (Hershey, Wiest) and veterans (Mirren, Goldberg, kind of Carter). I think the safest bet here is Helena Bonham Carter, showing us a performance we haven't really seen in lieu of her Burton collaborations lately.
Best Original Screenplay:
Another Year
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Eh.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back
Tony/Pulitzer Prize winner, Aaron Sorkin (overdue), Pixar (overdue for a win), Coens, and philosophical wartime epic — the reasoning in order of the alphabetically listed nominees.
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