It's near impossible to tell at this point what film will wind up winning Best Picture, just like with any year, though this year seems particularly challenging. So much goes into play, from the politics to the timing (that can change per week) to the surprise wins and omissions. Steve Poland was able to do it last year with The Hurt Locker, and this year he's saying The King's Speech. I'm inclined to agree with him.
But first, let's start with the various cons.
I would love to say The Way Back, but with a release in itself this year being uncertain and, if it is, being handled by a less than capable distributor I think the film would get recognition in nominations but definitely not really be in play for the win (besides, its grim as hell). Harvey will pimp the hell out of The King's Speech, it will certainly have actor support, it will have tech support, and it should garner a fair share of the BAFTA block. But it just seems...too obvious. The Social Network suffers from being so anticipated so early, just think of the last Sorkin screenplay helmed by a loved director — Charlie Wilson's War was definitely slated to be the '07 frontrunner before any of the '07 movies came out. 127 Hours has legitimate buzz coming out of Toronto but, though not impossible, it seems way too soon to reward Boyle again (though, if he deserves it again he deserves it again [obvious statement is obvious]). Another Year should make a splash in the critics' arena, and I think it will be appreciated, but a bit too quiet next to this year's epics. Black Swan has the buzz and will have the devoted fanbase, and will have tech appreciation, and will have actor support, but it's said to likely to alienate the crucial older demographic of Academy voters desperately needed to stand out in a field of ten. I think Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right and Inception have been out long enough to solidify themselves as contenders for the nomination but perhaps too long to sustain enough buzz for the top win. Besides, Nolan couldn't even get nominated for The Dark Knight. What makes anyone think he'll actually win for Inception?
In the end, the Oscar race is a numbers game. And as such, I think The King's Speech has got the numbers it needs. I guess I'd rank the contenders as such, and this time offer up some pros and less cons.
Here are my rankings (this will also count as my updated Best Picture prediction):
1. The King's Speech - I think Richard Corliss broke it down pretty well in his underwhelming review of the movie:
"...whereas almost no recent box-office hits have been set in the historical past, nearly 60% of the films nominated for best picture from 2000 to 2009 were — at least two of the five nominees every year, and sometimes four or all five (in 2009: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader and most of Slumdog Millionaire). Fifteen of the 50 films nominated in that decade had historical figures as their subjects, from Howard Hughes to Ray Charles, Edward R. Murrow to Harvey Milk. Six of the 50 were set in Britain, and seven took place during World War II or the years leading up to it, with Hitler's shadow looming menacingly and conveniently. (The Academy voters still love to hate the Nazis.) It also helps to focus on a British monarch, as in The Queen, or on a character with a severe physical or emotional disability A Beautiful Mind, Ray, Benjamin Button) that he learns to live with or conquer through the help of those who love him.
...The King's Speech adheres to every rule in the Oscar playbook. It's a fact-based drama about a British monarch with a crippling vocal handicap, set in the years 1925 to 1939 and climaxing with Britain's declaration of war against Nazi Germany."
And as I said, numbers numbers numbers. A likely contender in 3 out of 4 acting categories — all the major characters of the film, really — and one actually really good shot of winning (the only major one, too, in Lead Actor), it'll clearly have significant support in the most significant of demographics (the Acting branch). Check. Harvey Weinstein pimping the hell out of it. Not guaranteed, but never hurts. Check. Baity techs in costume, set direction, makeup, etc. More and more votes pouring in. Check. Critical success. Excellent reviews, for the most part. Check. BAFTA support. With these kinds of actors? Please. Check. A weighed ballot system that will give more weight to "consensus" films than fringe fanbase ones? I think that will help this out a lot, since it can only inspire so much "passion" out of cinephiles. So...yeah.
2. 127 Hours - Anyone who thinks that the Academy regrets their decision to reward Slumdog Millionaire are just plain wrong. They are wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Slumdog was beloved and is still beloved in Hollywood and the general mainstream of American audiences, and most of the factors making Slumdog the winningest film in awards season history are only put to more boldly audacious and artistic use in 127 Hours. The other major film to get MAJOR awards traction out of Toronto after The King's Speech, Boyle seems to pull the concept off magnificently which will impress most who see it. It will work for those tech branches that also fell in love with Slumdog's techs — it looks like the general tactic of cinematography, editing, music, etc. will largely stay the same. Those are some major fucking voting bodies. Seems a one man show of sorts of James Franco, who the acting community in Hollywood (for some reason) seems eager to start rewarding. Seems like lightning can only strike so many times for one director, but it looks like the mainstream is finally getting a glimpse at Danny Boyle's largely impressive range and capability to come out consistently with something daring, fresh, innovative and different every time. Looks to be Fox Searchlight's most prized possession this year, and this past decade have seemed to learn enough awards savvy to outshine Harvey himself in Hollywood influence. Sasha Stone says it best: "Danny Boyle’s second slam dunk is causing tears, standing ovations and, on occasion, seizures." That should be good enough to keep it in the press conversation, too.
3. Blue Valentine - Total wildcard, but I think it will come out to really strong reviews. Too small to be considered too obvious or boring a choice, two superstar lead roles anchoring the film, will surely have more exposure than Another Year to American audiences, and will come out too late for any particular backlash to have really settled in around prime voting time. I think if AMPAS has trouble picking a film to latch onto by New Year's Eve, this could be a darkhorse contender. Who knows what Harvey has up his sleeve for this one.
4. Black Swan - Already pretty widely seen as good. Damn good. Will make money. Damn good money. Natalie Portman is just the right age in just the right role at just the right time for this to be her shot at finding herself on the Kodak Theater stage that night. Will have devoted fans, but will likely also have devoted backlashers. The tone's said to be gritty enough to join the club of the last four Best Picture winners.
5. Another Year - Anyone whose seen it seems to love it. Anyone who hates it hasn't seemed to have seen it, because frankly I haven't heard a negative word. Desperately needs to be seen, desperately needs hometown support before it gets eaten up by the BAFTA voters who think Colin Firth deserved an Oscar already. Definitely has the numbers to garner a nomination — wide enough array of underappreciated veteran British character actors, and Mike Leigh's uncanny ability to be nomination in writing and/or direction for his major festival pieces. Yet no wins yet (overdue alert!). Looks bleak enough that it will capture some attention from Oscar voters (unlike Happy-Go-Lucky which I guess just didn't look appealing to people to want to watch) but still with a light hearted edge to it. Brenda Blethyn and Sally Hawkins managed to win Golden Globes for their performances, perhaps more love for Another Year as a whole will keep it in the public consciousness. It's all a lot of maybes, though.
6. The Social Network - I know I just paralleled it to Charlie Wilson's War, but this isn't quite so much "been there done that." I think it will probably be difficult for it to live up to quite the level of expectation there is, and I don't think the public will really be too sold on it either. The actors aren't all that well known, or aren't actors at all, and it doesn't show much in the way of tech promise. But I mean, hey, Aaron Sorkin still seems in the lead (probably mano a mano against Michael Arndt) for his first Screenplay win. David Fincher, we learned last time he went up against Danny Boyle, has more than a fair share of love these days in the Academy as long as he makes something baity. Critics seem to like it enough. The more I type out the lower I'm deciding to rank it.
7. Toy Story 3 - if they really can't find a better live-action movie this year (which isn't too far-fetched of an option, but a summer blockbuster threequel will always find a hard time with Oscar success).
8. The Kids Are All Right - Small scale, from the summer, will be remembered but with nominations at best.
9. True Grit - The Coens are loved, but they're only actually bestowed a few statues every decade it seems. Things that hurt it here are that its not quite their own screenplay and it's been made before. I'm sure they'll prove everyone wrong and come out with a really great interpretation, and their only Best Picture winner was itself an adapted screenplay, but...I don't know, I guess I just don't see it. A rough and tumble Western, featuring actors we've more or less have seen enough of last year? Just doesn't seem the right year.
10. Inception - DVD release around this time will echo concerns of how ~overdue~ Chris Nolan is and how this would be payback for The Dark Knight. Maybe if it actually had come out in theaters in December a la Avatar, we'd be having a different discussion on its chances to win. Right now, enough time has passed that it's not considered a great contender.
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