MOB: Labor Day Predictions

Not posting much; just waiting to slug through all the festival screenings and whatnot (Venice and Telluride now, NY and Toronto later). Here's a rundown of that basic buzz: Black Swan and 127 Hours are a hit, The King's Speech is perfect for awards, The Way Back might be too good for awards, Never Let Me Go is pretty solid (especially Mulligan), and...that looks to be about it so far. So who makes it and who doesn't? Only time will tell, but here are my first published predictions of the year.

I'll keep this in alphabetical order, to avoid contradictions and generally making a fool out of myself.

Best Picture:
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back

The weakest bet here so far is Inception, but playing the numbers game I think it'll end up having too much tech support to lose — plus, we'll be reminded of his buzz and how ~overdue~ Nolan is by the time the DVD release comes out in Januaryish. The Tree of Life is a huge question mark, here.

Best Director:
Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Mike Leigh - Another Year
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network
Peter Weir - The Way Back

I know I said The Way Back might not be the Academy's cup of tea, but it might not have to matter considering how beloved Weir is. If it does get in, I'm predicting it gets in on the strength of his name, alone, and the championing of loyal blogger fans with some sway in these kinds of races. The most unsure one, to me, is probably Mike Leigh. Though nominated quite a bit, Another Year is starting to look a bit quiet compared to the contenders coming out of these film festivals. I'm saying he gets the British support this year he didn't quite get for Happy-Go-Lucky, even if buzz on his film is waning.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
James Franco - 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Michael Douglas - Solitary Man

Hopefully Blue Valentine could regain some of its buzz again after its Toronto and Venice screenings, but until then (like Another Year), it's looking a bit quiet for what the Oscar Buzz machine seems to be eager to feed on this year. Get Low is a smaller scale summer release but voters can be expected to be inundated with screeners once the DVD (should) come around prime voting time with constant reminders of Robert Duvall's status in town. Michael Douglas has a well reviewed Wall Street sequel under his belt along with surprising news of throat cancer. That, combined with the few people who saw and loved his intense Solitary Man could well get him a surprise nomination. Colin Firth is the frontrunner here, though.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Lesley Manville for Another Year
Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine
Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
Carey Mulligan for Never Let Me Go

I'm a bit uneasy about having three starlets in this category, but I'm going by specific predictions and can't think of that kind of larger trend. People keep speculating that Lesley Manville could open it up a bit by going to the much weaker Supporting category, but as far as I see no one whose seen the film seems to be considering her anything less than lead. Annette Bening...is pretty safe here. The three starlets are the biggest question mark, but with Mulligan and Williams each having another performance of faint praise under their belt this year (Wall Street 2 and Meek's Cutoff, respectively), I think they could both make it in. And then I think Portman can get in on a wave of enthusiasm for her film. Plus, she's kind of getting into vet territory, right? I mean, she came on the scene at least a good 16 years ago.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Sam Rockwell for Conviction
Christian Bale for The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech
Ed Harris for The Way Back

This would be a great opportunity for the Academy to recognize the young up and comers from this generation. Rockwell, Bale, and Ruffalo all have strong fanbases in the more meatheady film fan universe (who will further demand recognition for David Fincher and Christopher Nolan, etc.). But those three are just starting their journey to be of Ed Harris level of overdue, who should be able to win this one if the film gains some semblance of popular traction.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Barbara Hershey - Black Swan
Helen Mirren - Brighton Rock
Whoopi Goldberg - For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow Is Enuf
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Dianne Wiest - Rabbit Hole

This category is so damn weak that I'm reduced to predicting a performance from a Tyler Perry film. But with Lionsgate moving up the release date to qualify this year, it seems like they have some confidence for the film, and I think this is the best category to throw that film a bone in the form of filler. So this category's filled with veteran character actresses of yesteryear (Hershey, Wiest) and veterans (Mirren, Goldberg, kind of Carter). I think the safest bet here is Helena Bonham Carter, showing us a performance we haven't really seen in lieu of her Burton collaborations lately.

Best Original Screenplay:
Another Year
Black Swan
Blue Valentine
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Eh.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Rabbit Hole
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back

Tony/Pulitzer Prize winner, Aaron Sorkin (overdue), Pixar (overdue for a win), Coens, and philosophical wartime epic — the reasoning in order of the alphabetically listed nominees. Read more!

NYFF: Tentative schedule

With a budget of $100 set, I'm going to see five films. As I see it, four of them are set in stone:

Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives - Saturday, September 25th (3:00 pm)
Certified Copy - Sunday, October 3rd (11:30 am)
Aurora - Sunday, October 3rd (5:00 pm)
Another Year - Tuesday, October 5th (6:00 pm)

I'm pretty pumped for those. As for the last slot, I think I might try the route of "obstructed viewing" seats for half off to slip in two more movies, Poetry and Inside Job, to stick with my $100 budget. If not, I'll probably stick with Poetry. If any of them sell out, or something, my backup plans (besides the other two I mentioned) include My Joy, Of Gods and Men, Oki's Movie, and The Strange Case of Angelica. Word. Read more!

MOB: Brownlow, Coppola, Godard and Wallach to Receive Academy’s Governors Awards

Breaking, y'all! Steve Pond reported that the board members would go behind closed doors tonight and decide the honorary prizes, and AMPAS came back in record time!

The Irving G. Thalberg prize, a bust of the motion picture executive, is given to “a creative producer whose body of work reflects a consistently high quality of motion picture production.” Francis Ford Coppola with his five (!!!) Oscars is certainly emblematic of this, as his involvement in cutting edge films and Hollywood influence remains untouched after forty years.

Kevin Brownlow, perhaps the single most important and accomplished film historian of our time, will receive one of the three Honorary Awards handed out the same night. Funnily enough, he's faced some major opposition from Francis Ford Coppola in releasing his brilliant five and a half hour restoration of Abel Gance's 1927 silent epic Napoléon in the United States because he didn't use Carmine Coppola's (note the last name) musical accompaniment. Even I'm bitter about that (but not to worry, I bought the five and a half hour version from this ~guy~ over the internet).

Jean-Luc Godard is still going strong making films to this day at the age of 80 (I might just catch his newest, Film Socialisme at NYFF next month) and among the most iconic of international film auteurs of the twentieth century. Though it seems like he's more than ready to use this opportunity to flick his nose at Hollywood and refuse the prize. Or, at the very least, just refuse to show up.

Eli Wallach is one of the most iconic character actors of early Westerns, including playing "the Bad" in Sergio Leone's epic classic The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. A richly deserving performer for the prize who otherwise went largely unrecognized in his illustrious career. Read more!

Movies to look forward to next month

Lots of exciting things happening this coming September in the film world, which will be sure to set the pace for how we'll be defining 2010 cinema in the future. From the combined film festivals of New York, Toronto and Venice we'll be getting a sense of how specific Oscar players are gonna look, plus the theaters are going to be packed with early contenders.




The American will come out on the very first day of the month. George Clooney has made a lot of friends within the Academy, and lately seems to be nominated consecutively for roles such as this (in the past you can think of Michael Clayton and Up in the Air). The movies he's nominated for also tend to get some BP love, and with the very refreshing approach potential great filmmaker Anton Corbijn (who brilliantly shot Control, one of 2007's bests) to give the film a very "European" feel, I get the sense that critics will be kind and it will appeal to a very middlebrow sector of the Academy. The issues are that it's a bit of an early release for a film on the scale of this to be remembered throughout the next season, and spy thrillers are hardly a genre the Academy or audiences alike have taken kindly to these days.

Machete should be in theaters by September 3rd, directed by perhaps the most worthy of Tarantino's students to continue his cinematic reign and influence Robert Rodriguez, this film's trailer first appeared three years ago in the Tarantino/Rodriguez failed double feature collaboration Grindhouse. Things don't look good as another Grindhouse trailer director, Edgar Wright, burned down spectacularly with his similarly instant cult hit and vastly underappreciated Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, and fellow Grindhouse trailer director was featured in the fun campy Piranha 3D (also met with disappointing box office). Little word seems to have spread of Machete, but I think with its combination of ultra-violence and cast of kick-ass comebacks (Trejo, De Niro, Lohan) it should follow a similar path as The Expendables earlier this year (though not to the same extent). Don't expect any Oscars from this one though, folks, though it might get some splendid reviews.



I'm Still Here should come to limited release September 10th after premiering in Venice, and should finally answer the question of what exactly happened to Joaquin Phoenix. The answer, likely, is that it was all a gag for the sake of this faux comedic documentary by the talented young Casey Affleck. Do be warned, though, it's probably more in line with the Borat gross-out humor than This is Spinal Tap. From the LA Times: "Several buyers said the film overflowed with Hollywood debauchery, including more male frontal nudity than you’d find in some gay porn films and a stomach-turning sequence in which someone feuding with Phoenix defecates on the actor while he’s asleep." As for me...count me in!

Easy A should come to theaters by September 17th, offering a vehicle for the talented young starlet Emma Stone, and sure to be the most appreciated teen hit since Mean Girls. Jam packed with a talented cast of comedic and veteran character actors including Amanda Bynes (yes, she's been doing this long enough to be a vet), Lisa Kudrow, Stanley Tucci, Patricia Clarkson, and even Alex DeLarge himself Malcolm McDowell. I do gotta take issue with the way closeted gays in the trailer are depicted as needing a beard (in this case, Emma Stone) but the acting looks uniformly great and the writing otherwise strong. This will find a niche audience pretty quickly and I'd expect bring in some damn good box office numbers.



Jack Goes Boating should be in limited release by September 17th, after its Toronto premiere. Phillip Seymour Hoffman's tries his hand at directing for the first time with this stage adaptation of the successful play. The trailer to me looks a bit underwhelming, but if it does well Hoffman could be a serious contender in several major categories at the Oscars this year, although I think it'll go more along the lines of his past small scale indie work (under the radar, like Synecdoche, NY).

The Town should be in theaters by the same day, the new directorial effort from Ben Affleck who showed great promise in atmosphere and suspense with 2007's Gone Baby Gone. But this time, instead of baby brother Casey, it stars Ben himself surrounded by a talented cast including last year's nominee Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Pete Postlethwaite, Chris Cooper, and the luminous Rebbecca Hall. Set in the same dark Bostonian tone that worked well for past films like Mystic River, this will probably follow the same path awards-wise as Gone Baby Gone (as in, not much attention aside from a standout performance or something) but it could help Ben Affleck with good will in furthering his chances with The Company Men this same year (or vice-versa).



You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger is the latest Woody Allen effort due for a September 22nd release with a supercast that includes Naomi Watts, Josh Brolin, Anthony Hopkins, Antonio Banderas, Freida Pinto and more. Premiered to unspectacular Cannes notice, but it looks as sexy and perhaps more ridiculous a comedic piece than his last great success of Vicky Christina Barcelona in 2008. In terms of awards, Woody Allen's always a screenplay contender as long as his film is well received. This one doesn't look to be his most acclaimed movie, but it doesn't look too bad.

Enter the Void, finally finding a US release after making a splash at Cannes, Toronto and Sundance in the past, should be at least in New York's IFC center by September 24th. Gaspar Noe's ambitious mindfucking venture is kind of hard to explain, so just look at the trailer I guess. Among my most anticipated of the year.

Howl, in theaters also on September 24th, features James Franco in the baity role as gay poetic revolutionary Allen Ginsberg during the onset of the Beat Generation's 20th century rise. It was met tepidly at Sundance this past year, but if it gets any better reviews from mainstream critics this year I'd be excited to see it being the huge Beat generation-geek that I am.



It's Kind of a Funny Story also opens on this busy box office day in September, also going to be the opening night of the New York Film Festival which will premiere David Fincher's The Social Network. Tragically overlooked by the Emmys in his work on United States of Tara, Keir Gilchrist stars in this dark comedy in a psych ward by indie duo Boden and Fleck who had previously led Ryan Gosling to nomination glory in Half Nelson. Their third effort is promising, and there are some whispers (as ridiculous as you may think) that recent comedic breakthrough Zach Galifianakis to sneak through in this year's weak seeming Supporting Actor lineup.

And then, finally, Waiting for Superman could be a superstar in a super year for documentaries (alongside Sundance smashes The Oath, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and Cannes-raved Inside Job [also screening at the New York Film Festival]) highlighting the country's dismal state of education. With a smart advertising campaign going on for about a year now, featuring trailers in high profile indie films and urging an online fanbase to "pledge" to watch the movie, it is sure to be as important and as infuriating a documentary as you'll see all year.



On another note, you can expect my first full Oscar predictions for the year come Labor Day, along with a rundown of what I plan on seeing at the New York Film Festival (eventually, you'll get a look at my confirmed list and a diary logging reviews of each film as the festival progresses). Read more!

Major Emmy buzz?

I don't know much about the TV world, or the world of Emmy politics. It's a much bigger group of voters, so it's a lot more populist-based. But I just love any sort of awards shows, and with the Emmys coming at the end of next month, this is the next major one to await.

Since I don't really know what I'm talking about, I'll just post the predictions without much explanation. Kay? Okay.

Outstanding Comedy Series: Modern Family will be enough of the voting branch's cup of tea to upset Glee.



Outstanding Drama Series: Mad Men, though Dexter has gotten more popular this year.



Outstanding Made for Television Movie: Temple Grandin benefits from a safer and more PC subject than its closest lead performance-anchored competitor, You Don't Know Jack.

Outstanding Miniseries: The Pacific



Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: Larry David benefits from veteran status and this being his last chance to win for this show, although it will be an upset over perpetual (deserved) favorite Alec Baldwin.



Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Michael C. Hall benefits from an increase in exposure to his show and a sentimental sweep of precursors (which just means the Golden Globes and SAG during Oscar season) prior to Cancer treatment.



Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie: Pacino



Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Edie Falco is the (relative) newbie, has leftover love from her multiple-Emmy winning performance on The Sopranos and a surprise nomination for her show in Comedy Series. She's good.



Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: Margulies is also in the newer show and hasn't won in a good 15 years. Should continue her winning streak from the Golden Globes and SAG.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie: Danes is as locked as Pacino.



Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: NPH benefits from being hella overdue, nominated twice this year, former host, beloved in the TV community and really the rest of aware America. Jon Cryer benefited from a really competitive and split category last year, Chris Colfer is too young and the Modern Family trio of guys are cursed to split votes.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: One of the Lost guys. Probably the one that hasn't won yet. Terry O'Quinn or something?

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie: I wouldn't know.



Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: Jane Lynch, though a Krakowski upset would be delicious.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Hendricks, because her boobs are way bigger than Moss's.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie: Kathy Bates, since she's the only one in her category not facing competition from inside her own movie.



Outstanding Variety, Music Or Comedy Series: The Tonight Show With Conan O'Brian has too good of a story to pass up for the usual winner The Daily Show.

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: The Amazing Race always wins.

Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Reality - Competition Program: Ryan Seacrest. This category is so dumb.



Outstanding Reality Program: They love them some Kathy Griffin. Read more!

Five Films to Look Forward to this Oscar Season

So now that we've gotten through three of the possible contenders so far, here are five films that I'm looking forward to for the rest of the year. Whether they will be successful or not to the Academy remains to be seen, but they will be films you will hear of surely enough. So remember them now so that when they come out...you'll know who tipped you off!

Blue Valentine

Derek Cianfrance directs two of the most praised actors of their generation (Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams) as a John Cassevetes-esque portrait of the deterioration of a loving married couple. The cold color palette seen already oozes with the tragedy of this couple's love that, seems to me, is doomed from the start. The film has done very well in screenings at Sundance and Cannes, though director Cianfrance predicts it will be a divisive film (as he was aiming for). Pundits like Dave Karger who've seen the film predict that it will generally be too much of a bummer for major awards groups to latch on to in their prizes, but if it does well you can expect some major love for the two main leads and perhaps a shot at the major sweep (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay) only seen at the Oscars three times before.

Rabbit Hole

Nicole Kidman is seeking a major critical comeback with adaptation of the 2007 Tony Award and Pulitzer Prize winning play by the same playwright. Helmed by director John Cameron Mitchell, who's been giving outstanding work in the indie world for the past decade, the film follows a couple, Kidman and Aaron Eckhart (pictured above), dealing with the death of their young son in a car accident. Similarly to Blue Valentine, this dark and bleak portrayal of a loving relationship is garnering buzz for both leads and stands a chance at being nominated for the major five as well (although adapted instead of original). Though, we can see from the past that generally plays adapted by the same playwright don't seem to reach their level of perceived potential awards wise (Doubt).

The Way Back

Peter Weir has gone 0 for 6 at the Oscars in the past 20+ years. If there's any film to immediately consider a frontrunner for BP, I'd say that this may just be the best bet. Overdue film veteran Weir has gotten his hands on a World War II epic starring Colin Farrel, Saoirse Ronan, and Ed Harris (another overdue vet who could use the film to finally get an Oscar). The film almost seems assured for BAFTA success, and very few doubts have been cast on the film.

Tree of Life

Terrence Malick is a master of the cinematic language, as he's shown in all four films he's ever made so far since the 70s. The Tree of Life marks his return after The New World was a critical disappointment when released five years ago (though in retrospect, respected). Very little is known of The Tree of Life, much like Inception, crowded in secrecy. What is known is that it's a 1950s period piece starring Brad Pitt and Sean Penn, following "a family with three boys in the 1950s...the eldest [of whom] witnesses the loss of innocence." What results is a fantastical dramatic sci-fi through the cosmos...or something, helmed by legendary cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki who seems secure to win his overdue Oscar this year for the film. The film may end up, like last time, going over the heads of critics and audiences. It could end up a fanboy beloved box office sensation and a revival of interest in Malick's career among the generation of movie fanboys (not that he doesn't have plenty of those already). Malick, like Weir, does not have an Oscar yet. And to many people, that's a damn shame. We'll see later this year if the Academy agrees, after years and years of this film's post-production postponing us from figuring out earlier (it's been slated for release as early as 2007).

Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

Okay. So it seems like a silly title. But it won Thai auteur Apichatpong Weerasethakul his first Palme D'Or prize at this year's Cannes Film Festival after prior successes with his debut Tropical Malady (which mentioned this infamous Uncle Boonmee and his past-seeing powers) and Syndromes and a Century. His work is slow, offbeat, and experimental. It's not easy to get into him by any means. But once you do, he offers a sensory feast of an experience that you won't regret. His latest seems to be a crowning achievement of said experience, receiving unanimous praise from critics at this year's Cannes and the trailer showing some of Weerasethakul's most luscious scenery yet. Took years to make, and probably won't be available to us until early 2011, but it's still worth noting and could be a potential contender for Foreign Film on behalf of Thailand (not that it's the Foreign branch's cup of tea or anything).

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Brief update on the year thus far

Hello. Following Oscar season obviously the cinematic landscape has been rather dull. Certain genres do have some strong contenders already for this awards season, however. Animation, for instance, has never looked better so soon. Toy Story 3 has seemed to lock itself in place as the first of the trilogy to get the Best Animated Feature Oscar, although it already faces some good competition from the likes of How To Train Your Dragon and now Despicabe Me, all three being among the most well reviewed films of the year. Toy Story 3 being the second best reviewed film of all time, just behind it's immediate predecessor, seems to have also earned it a pretty safe slot in this year's Best Picture ten (as with Up last year, Pixar may well have earned itself a token spot in the top ten lineup of any given year from now on).
On the Documentary front, I have already seen two films this year worthy of nominations. The Oath is a troubling look at the state of the war on terror, its root causes, and where it stands now through the microcosm of one single enigmatic figure who was formerly on the frontlines alongside Osama bin Laden. Another, Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work, is an impressive look at a down and up period of a hardworking comedic icon. Both films premiered at Sundance and won prizes for cinematography and documentary, respectively.
Documentaries, however, are not expected to break through in the Picture lineup anytime soon (though Michael Moore may have been able to achieve the feat in his prime). Two real competitors are expected to come out soon, however. One in the form of a major summer blockbuster than can take a slot filled by District 9 last year, the other a indie family comedy in the vein of the likes of Juno and Little Miss Sunshine in the past. Christopher Nolan's Inception are his fanboys hopes of some sort of retribution for having missed out on a nod for The Dark Knight two years ago, which would have seemed like a sure thing along with WALL·E had they extended it to ten that year. With an all star cast with the likes of former nominees like Leonardo DiCaprio, Ellen Page, Ken Watanabe, former winners like Marion Cotillard and Michael Caine, and surely future honorees like Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Cillian Murphy, it appeals to fanboys across the board. Tracking seems to suggest that it could make similar business TDK did two years to the day of its release, when it smashed the record of opening weekend box office, and with the growing popularity of IMAX and 3D some say it could rival the numbers of Avatar's behemoth success late last year and early this year. I doubt it on that front, given its supposedly confusing-as-hell plot line having to do with the architecture of dreams, but its inaccessibility seems to have impressed critics so far with a fresh percentage rating in the 90s from rottentomatoes and seems promising to awards forecasters for the end of the year.
The other, much more traditional Oscar bait, comes in the form of The Kids Are All Right. Infamously often nominated but not rewarded actresses Julianne Moore and Annette Bening play a lesbian couple with three all star child actors (Mia Wasikowski and Josh Hutcherson) who go out and seek out their biological father (criminally underrated Mark Ruffalo). Premiering at Sundance to uproarious praise, the film seems to have the pedigree, acclaim, and exposure of an average indie Oscar vehicle. I'm thinking this is another one that will make it into the final ten with considerable ease.

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