Cannes Predictions

Palme: Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
Grand Prix: La Havre
Jury Prize: The Artist
Director: Joseph Cedar, Footnote
Actor: Thomas Doret, The Boy With a Bike / Antonio Banderas, The Skin I Inhabit
Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Screenplay: Drive

I imagine it will be some sort of combination of the above. I was thinking one of the unprecedented four female directors in competition could take a prize, but with all but Kevin (which should assure a safe win for Swinton rather than director Lynn Ramsey) underwhelming in reviews, it doesn't look like it'll happen. Pedro Almodovar is arguably the most overdue and recognizable of names in the lineup but I'm not sure if he can get it this year with such a fringey genre piece which some consider a bit over the top, but he definitely has a shot if Ceylon's Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, already at a disadvantage with such a late screening date, manages to disappoint. Otherwise Aki Kaurismaki's Le Havre seems like a safe frontrunner, although perhaps a bit too light for the jury to throw the top prize at.

Although the atmosphere of a Cannes festival can change by hours at a time (see: the implosion at the otherwise surprisingly accessible-seeming Melancholia at the hands of Lars von Trier's terrible attempts at comedy), just as last year when I was able to predict the victories of such films and figures as Uncle Boonmee and Juliette Binoche only the day they handed out their prizes.

The general wildcard will appear to be whether there's a sense to reward Terrence Malick, although it's reported that Olivier Assayas was the only jury member largely enamored by The Tree of Life. It's go big or go home for the film, which I doubt will take anything less than the very Palme D'Or should it win anything at all (a possibility I'm currently leaning against).