There is nothing left to look for between now and Tuesday when Oscar nominations will be released. The Globes have set frontrunners, the BAFTA have given a barometer to how potentially half of the Academy's acting branch will have voted. I swear, this will get back to a regular film review blog soon, but, y'know, 'tis the season to be jolly or whatnot. Here are my final, yes, final, predictions for Oscar nominations.
Let's start slow. You know. Not giving all my cards out at once kinda thing. Here are some categories people forget about — the shorts. But let's...not really count these in my overall tally, unless I turn out to be really correct. Learning curve!
Live Action Short
Ana's Playground
God of Love
Little Children, Big Words
Na Wewe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man
Admittedly, I haven't seen any of these besides God of Love and interviewing director Luke Matheny. But there are some factors you can look at to predict these kinds of categories. For instance, in Matheny's case, he's already been shown a strong contingent of support from the sorts of industry insiders who will be packed into the room screening these movies and then deciding their votes on the spot. His film won the Student Academy Award this past year and won top prize at the Angelus Film Festival, which has a jury of insiders across a spectrum of entertainment industries. The other ones either seem socially conscious or generally tug at the heartstrings. Ana's Playground and Na Wewe take place in war torn areas of the world while both and Little Children, Big Words and The Six Dollar Fifty Man additionally center their narratives around children. And I mean, that's always nice. Right?
Animated Short
The Cow Who Wanted To Be a Hamburger
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
Let's Pollute
The Silence Beneath the Bark
Pixar's shorts introducing their blockbuster successes aren't usually assured nominations, here, but they're the ones that usually have the most popular momentum going for them since they obviously would be the most seen of the nominees (you probably remember Day & Night having introduced Toy Story 3). I'm predicting The Cow Who Wanted To Be a Hamburger almost solely for Bill Plympton — partially because I'm personally rooting for him, and partially because he just happens to be an icon in the animation industry at this moment with a lot of momentum being shortlisted in both this category and the Animated Feature category. This at least shows love for him as an industry figure, I reckon, and there's no way his feature film can make it into a competitive field of just 3 nominees. So here I have him, even though the style seems completely bizarre. Let's Pollute just seems like a fun little diddy with semi socially conscious messages behind it and The Silence Beneath the Bark is said to be entirely memorable.
Documentary Short
Born Sweet
Living for 32
Killing in the Name
Strangers No More
The Warriors of Qiugang
Complete guesswork. No harm, no foul — right?
Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Giftshop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman
We move back into feature films, where this category seems a bit more tangible and familiar. But the Documentary voting branch often likes to throw curveballs, and in such a banner year for the category who knows what kind of films would make it in. The unorthodox Exit Through the Gift Shop might be the most rewarded so far of the season, and while before I would not have pegged it for being up the alley of this particular branch's tastes I figure it being shortlisted means they liked it just fine. Inside Job is a bit of a festival favorite, and much more in this branch's liberal preferences than the more mainstream Waiting for Superman, although the film has a fantastic marketing team behind it and one of the best PR campaigns we've seen this season. Call Gasland a hunch. I'm still displeased that Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and The Oath were not shortlisted, though.
Canada - Incendies
France - Of Gods and Men
Iraq - Sons of Babylon
South Africa - Life, Above All
Turkey - Bal
Perpetually the most perplexing and controversial category in this entire awards, it's not always the high profile arthouse flicks that make it in. It's a completely unique system with a very defined set of voters, whose tastes are usually distinguishable...after they've snubbed the films everyone expected to get in. The only entry I've seen of these predictions is France's, which I'm not the biggest fan of. But France is a perennial favorite, with the film as visually striking but as narratively slow as might be their cup of tea, and new rules skewing influence to festival hits almost assures this a nomination. Sons of Babylon is supposedly exactly the kind of father/son roadtrip movie that could make that film a frontrunner to win this year, while Roger Ebert — who tends to be an accurate barometer of traditional Academy sensibilities — highly praised South Africa's entry Life, Above All. Turkey's Bal, or Honey, seems to have that child-focused narrative that tugs at the heartstrings as well as having been a winner at the Berlin festival earlier in the year. Canada's Incendies is just presumed to be a frontrunner, but when the shortlists come out we may well see some of these very choices miss out. Other options could be Mexico's Biutiful from Alejandro González Iñárritu (whose films have been nominated in the category before), although I still think the film is much too miserablist for their tastes, or recent Golden Globe winner In a Better World from Danish auteur Suzanne Bier (these do tend to skew more European, after all).
UPDATED: UMMM the shortlists came out and it turns out that 3 of these didn't make the cut at all. Damn. I'm terrible at this.
New predictions:
Algeria - Outside the Law
Canada - Incendies
Denmark - In a Better World
Mexico - Biutiful
South Africa - Life, Above All
Best Original Song
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"Pretty Girls," Despicable Me
"I See the Light," Tangled
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
"Shine," Waiting for Superman
Another fickle branch of the Academy is the music branch. A jury of voters watches each qualifying song as it plays in the movie it belongs to and gives it a certain score of which it must pass a threshold to be nominated — which has led to some pretty shocking snubs in the past. There could be as few as two nominees, or even none in a given year. I do think there are enough songs from this year to suit their fancy, however, for a full five-nominee category. Music star Dido's haunting voice sings to A.R. Rahman's melody that this branch and the Academy at large proved to like 2 years ago with Slumdog Millionaire at a crucial plot point in 127 Hours. It's the kind of stuff Best Song nominations are meant for. Alan Menken is so beloved in this category that he's won eight Oscars in six years (!!!) at the height of the Disney renaissance in the early 90s, and had three nominations from Enchanted as early as 2007. This year, he's only submitted one song, as to prevent him from splitting votes from himself and potentially winning a ninth Oscar for Tangled. Randy Newman's another music legend adored by the Academy, with a great song in a great film that plays over the humorous credits. "Shine" by John Legend has the air of social importance that got Melissa Etheridge an Oscar in 2006 for An Inconvenient Truth — a documentary from the same director as Waiting for Superman. I just have "Pretty Girls" as kind of a surprise inclusion because Pharell did a great job with the Despicable Me soundtrack and, in recent years, the branch has been kind to hip hop stars (puzzlingly enough). He may even be a threat to win if he does overcome to hurdle to be nominated.
Other songs with chances include a limit of two for Burlesque, a beautiful Jónsi song from How To Train Your Dragon and the perfectly lovely "Chanson Illusioniste" from The Illusionist — considering the song mention for Chomet's last film, The Triplets of Belleville.
Best Original Score
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network
I think Rahman's now officially a member of the club, which means he'll rack up as many nominations as possible as long as he keeps scoring potential Picture contenders (or, just Boyle films). Rachel Portman is in that same club for Never Let Me Go, and The King's Speech seems like a good excuse to reward both that film and Desplat's career year (in which he produced highly superior scores to the likes of The Ghost Writer and Harry Potter 7.1. Inception and The Social Network both just happen to be the most rewarded scores of the year, with The Social Network actually having more wins than the already iconic Inception soundtrack. This group historically is not kind to rock stars like Trent Reznor, but if they already considered him qualified (they could have disqualified him the way they did to Johnny Greenwood for There Will Be Blood) then perhaps it means they like him. Besides, it's in a Picture frontrunner with the score having some resemblance (besides being much better and all) than that of The Hurt Locker, nominated last year.
Best Sound Mixing
Inception
Iron Man 2
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Best Sound Editing
127 Hours
Inception
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Unstoppable
I'll be the first to admit that I don't have the best ear for spotting the difference between sound mixing and sound editing. Ultimately, from what I understand, sound mixing is the sounds that are made and sound editing is how those sounds are incorporated into the movie. Animated films, and particularly Pixar films, tend to be popular in these categories. Often they only get one or the other, but I figure if that's the case then it's probably safer to predict Toy Story 3 in both instead of picking the wrong one. Sound mixers are said to be astounded by the soundtrack of The Social Network, from the club scene where you can still perfectly hear dialogue despite the overwhelming noise of the music or Fincher getting as detailed as the perfect sound of Zuckerberg's flip flops. I think it'll get nominated in both. The other slots and choices, particularly Inception, comes from people's general perception that "louder" is "better" in this category.
Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman
Rick Baker's the stuff of legends and his work on The Wolfman is said to be of all-time great level. Alice in Wonderland provides opportunity for very baity makeup work, and the aging done on the actors of Barney's Version is particularly up this branch's aisle. Although this category is often known for curveballs as well. You might see something like The Fighter make it here, or perhaps Black Swan. Those would be in place of Barney's Version, as I think the other two are quite safe.
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy
It's hard to go very wrong in this category, since the branch oddly released a bakeoff of seven eligible films for it this year. They've always done that, but this year is the first in which the category is extended from three to five. The only ones not here that were included were Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World. Seeing the latter there would be a fabulous surprise, but I don't have my hopes up.
Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
The Social Network
Another reason I can't put Pilgrim in my visual effects category is because I already have my delusions predicting it here in a shock. Generally this category includes 4 Picture nominees and an extra slot for some really fancy editing. This slot in the past has gone to District 9 and The Bourne Ultimatum. I figure editors know better than anyone how brilliant and innovative the use of editing was in Scott Pilgrim, the same way cinematographers were able to recognize the brilliance of The White Ribbon last year against everyone's predictions. Before her passing Sally Menke had even remarked highly of the use of editing in that movie.
The other four nominees are just ACE nominees and Picture contender.
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Colleen Atwood doing fantasy, Sandy Powell doing period, a ballet flick and an old Western flick. Seems pretty standard to me.
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Similar rules from above apply here. Just call The Social Network a hunch, though.
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Inception and True Grit are locks and frontrunners. The King's Speech and The Social Network could make it in just based on the strength of them being BP frontrunners. Black Swan is just hella impressive and has been a critics' darling of sorts (the way The White Ribbon was last year).
Best Animated Film
How To Tran Your Dragon
My Dog Tulip
Toy Story 3
Again, call My Dog Tulip a hunch as well (too many of those?), but the branch here really likes fringey out there animation and aren't afraid to nominate something totally obscure at a moment's notice. Not to mention its brilliant campaign to draw attention to itself in Hollywood. It could be replaced by The Illusionist, as they liked Sylvain Chomet's work last time, but he sadly wasn't BAFTA nominated. The support could be weaker than we think.
Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
It's either 127 Hours or The Town in that last slot. Both were WGA nominated, but that's probably because Winter's Bone wasn't eligible. BAFTA nominated 127 Hours, but I don't know how much of an overlap there is with BAFTA writers (certainly not as much as the acting branch).
Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Alright, look. I'm sensing a major upset here, I just don't know where. I think the two K's are pretty locked in, as is Inception. Neither Black Swan nor The Fighter seem like much of writer's movies, but Black Swan especially seems like more a feat in directing and acting than anything else. But what could slip in? Four Lions could potentially pop up as this year's In the Loop. Another Year wasn't nominated at BAFTA for its screenplay but then again, the Academy recognized Happy-Go-Lucky which was shut out in BAFTA nominations. But that film also had more precursor support. AGGGH!! Animal Kingdom also seems very written, and Blue Valentine seems like perfectly indie fare to reward here as it was cresting at just the right time for awards momentum (in spite of much of the film being improvised).
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
It may seem ballsy, but I'm allowing BAFTA to justify my ballsiness here. This was always the most open category all season, and a shakeup is in order. Amy Adams and Helena Bonham Carter are locks after their nominations at the BFCA, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and BAFTAs. Melissa Leo is a lock as well with her wins at the Globes and the BFCA, as well as a likely SAG win. Once we get beyond that, there are two open slots. Jacki Weaver missed out on the SAG. Mila Kunis missed the BAFTA in favor of her co-star, Barbara Hershey. Lesley Manville missed out on most things and has category confusion. But from the very first round of BAFTA voting, which includes enough members of the Academy to get her a spot in such a free-for-all year, Manville landed in the top five. And in the top five she remains, and potential frontrunner for the win in this category. Weaver's small Australian film was the first screener sent out which, from my experiences, can be very telling of that film's chances come nomination morning. Think The Savages, the first screener of 2007 which went unnoticed all season until Laura Linney's nomination for Best Actress. Think District 9 last year. Plus, seeing her on the campaign circuit all of a sudden in all her sweetness makes it hard for me to imagine she misses. I would love for Mila Kunis to get in, however, Barbara Hershey making that spot over her at the BAFTA was very telling. She was never all that safe to begin with, and if she has that kind of formidable internal competition at play then I think they may well both cancel each other out. And we'll get to Hailee Steinfeld in a moment.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Number's game. Rush and Bale are the two locks getting nominations from all the BFCA, Globes, SAG and BAFTA. Garfield, Renner and Ruffalo all have three of those four off their checklist, which keeps them relatively safe. Although Postlethwaite's posthumous (say those two words five times fast) BAFTA nomination makes me worried of Renner's chances with that internal competition. Postlethwaite was an honored and respected character actor on the other side of the pond, as well, and in spite of it being pretty solely almost shamefully sentimental I can see those two canceling out the way I foresee for both Kunis and Hershey. And I am getting the growing sense that SAG nominated John Hawkes can still sneak in. It'd be a good NGNG pick, but I think Winter's Bone might be rather doomed as a film...
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
I figured with Steinfeld's lead placement at BAFTAs longlists alone would put her in serious contention for the final lead nomination slot at the Oscars, but with a shiny new BAFTA nomination now actually to her name it seems all the more clear. I can actually kind of foresee Kidman missing before Steinfeld, whereas before I was worried Steinfeld might split votes between the Lead and Supporting category. Rabbit Hole, on the other hand, missed out on a WGA mention for its Pulitzer and Tony Award winning writer, the film's made a dismal box office showing, and no one outside of Kidman seems to be nominated for the film. Are people even watching it at this point? They might just be putting her name down for her being Kidman. Michelle Williams may have hope yet!
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Duvall missed a Globe nomination, and he missed a BAFTA nomination. Generally, though, you want to try to not sway so much away from the SAG nominations (which aligned with Oscar nominations last year 19/20), so I'm keeping this pretty much the same. With Bridges getting BAFTA nominated again, I see him joining the safe club along with Firth, Eisenberg, and Franco. My dream would be for Blue Valentine to really break through replacing one of those last slots on the Picture list, with Gosling over Duvall, Williams over Kidman, and the screenplay over something else. It could happen but all those elements would have to come together perfectly and I'm just not willing to take the risk of breaking that far away from precedent (which I've already done plenty of). Another possible upset to look for is Javier Bardem's humane performance in Biutiful which received high profile endorsements at the height of voting season and a BAFTA nomination this morning.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception
I had predicted David O. Russell to get the DGA nomination over the Coen brothers. But in the past decade the DGA has only aligned with the Academy's nominations twice, one of which being last year. It definitely seems too soon for that to happen again, meanwhile many DGA ballots were sent before True Grit's fantastic performance at the box office nevermind the fact that the DGA was always more of a populist voting body to begin with. I can't see any on the line auteurs like Mike Leigh or Peter Weir making it in here, or even a woman like Lisa Cholodenko or Debra Granik following Bigelow's shattering of the glass ceiling last year. I think they're all probably in the top ten with Russell, but pretty far behind.
Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
I've finally taken Winter's Bone off my list. It got shutout at the BAFTAs and hasn't made much of a guild appearance at all, unlike both 127 Hours or The Town. Neither of which got the top BAFTA nomination but they both got enough to suggest the support to get them in over Winter's Bone (especially that nomination for Danny Boyle). Blue Valentine also got shutout but I see that potentially appealing to a lot of voters that only got to see it after the unusually early SAG balloting where it did very well in limited release as ballots were released. So I guess those are two upset options.
The Social Network - 11 nominations
Inception - 10 nominations
The King's Speech - 10 nominations
True Grit - 9 nominations
127 Hours - 7 nominations
Black Swan - 7 nominations
The Fighter - 6 nominations
Toy Story 3 - 6 nominations
Alice in Wonderland - 4 nominations
The Kids Are All Right - 4 nominations
The Town - 2 nominations
Winter's Bone - 2 nominations
No comments:
Post a Comment