MOB: Another year, another set of predictions

This will likely be my second-to-last set of predictions, the last one before my final predictions. There are a couple of precursors left to look for — particularly, the guilds for the techs and the BAFTA nominations. This set of predictions might look a little bit safe, but the fact is that the most often correct predictions are those which play it on the safer side. I've had a change of heart over a few things in the past few weeks, but we'll go over all of them.

Best Picture:
1. The Social Network
2. The Fighter
3. The King's Speech
4. Black Swan
5. Inception
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Toy Story 3
9. Winter's Bone
10. The Town

My major change of heart here was The Town, which I thought needed desperately that SAG Ensemble nom that it missed out on. But it didn't miss out entirely, adding to Jeremy Renner's check-list of the major precursors needed for his category (Globes, BFCA, SAG) and got both the PGA (important) and the WGA (not important). It's most serious competition is 127 Hours, which will have a good amount of tech support...supposedly. It did miss out on the Cinema Audio Society nominees today, and that might spell disaster for the other guilds. Like The Town, however, it did manage to catch both the PGA and the WGA as well as an obvious nomination for Franco at the SAG. The Town has more passion, however, and will likely grab more #1 votes than 127 Hours which seems more admired than loved. Both films topped Winter's Bone for the PGA, but I don't think that film's missing out with two SAG nominations (including a surprise for John Hawkes) and support from recent Oscar-winning directors Scorsese and Bigelow. I think Toy Story 3 is ultimately safe, as well, with voters like Quentin Tarantino and Diane Keaton so far having gone on record to call it their favorite films of the year. The passion there will do the work itself. Inception has the Christopher Nolan factor, True Grit is dominating the box office as we speak, and the other five that pivotal SAG Ensemble nomination.

Assuming Winter's Bone will be included, that leaves one spot open that both The Town and 127 Hours are fighting for. Last year, 8/10 of the PGA's choices matched up with Academy nominations, which means that something like The Blind Side can come up as a surprise mention. Let's say both The Town and 127 Hours kind of cancel themselves out, what else makes it? There's a few options. I think one important factor to look for will be the BAFTA longlists released at the end of this week. Of course, these lists include a lot of names — 15 choices per category! But the BAFTA's acting branch is probably the single precursor with the largest percentage of AMPAS member overlap, and if they show a lot of love for the entire cast of Another Year — which means Manville, Broadbent, Sheen, Wight, Bradley, AND Staunton — can potentially show enough support for this otherwise shutout film to slip into that last slot. Blue Valentine is another possible film, doing well in limited release with the full might of the Weinstein Company behind it. I think it will undoubtedly have the passion, but that passion might skew a bit young and dependent on the actors who might have trouble sneaking in to their respective categories.

Best Director:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

These five seem pretty good, unless Aronofsky is simply not liked in the directors branch. The DGA will be important to look for at the beginning of next week, which may or may not snub him or even someone like Tom Hoooper in favor of a more populist game changing choice like O'Russell for The Fighter which has undoubted enthusiasm in Hollywood. I could also see Debra Granik or Mike Leigh cracking this list.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low

SAG lineup. It'd be a shame to see it without Ryan Gosling, but it happens. Jeff Bridges' career is just too hot right now and Robert Duvall proved his respect in Hollywood with a recent star in his honor added to the Hollywood Walk of Fame. I could still see either missing out to Gosling, or potentially other stars with more passionate supporters like Javier Bardem for Biutiful (Sean Penn and Julia Roberts are nice stars to have on your side for the Oscars) or even Michael Douglas showing up for Solitary Man a la Tommy Lee Jones in 2007.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Lesley Manville, Another Year

Common wisdom says that fifth slot is up for grabs, but I honestly believe the only ones totally safe for nominations are Portman and Bening. Lawrence got that SAG nomination, obviously good news for her, but heat for her film in general has cooled. And Rabbit Hole is pulling in some disappointing numbers at the box office which has brought no wins yet to Kidman (while there have been wins for Portman, Bening, Lawrence, Manville and Michelle Williams) let alone many nominations for anyone else involved in the film.
Weinstein doesn't have anyone from The King's Speech to focus a campaign on in this category, and she has a lot of allies including Kate Winslet holding private screenings for her. I think BAFTA will keep Manville into that slot, hopefully with a win, and confirm NBR's track record with Actress winners. But as I said, a scenario with both actresses nominated would not be unheard of to me.
Something to look for would be BAFTA's category placement of Manville. If they put her Supporting, hell, perhaps she'll be put supporting and perhaps even switch a slot with otherwise-campaigned supporting Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit into that slot. Honestly though, Williams deserves it more.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town

Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush are the only two locks, at the moment. I believe that Bale will ultimately win but that it won't be a smooth journey to that Kodak Theater stage. Andrew Garfield will give them fair competition for the BAFTA though, methinks, considering he's already a past winner at only 27 years old and will likely get another nomination that same night for the Rising Star award (which he stands a fair chance at winning). Not to mention, he's very likely to show up again in the Supporting category for his hauntingly internalized performance in Never Let Me Go. That SAG snub, though? Ouch. I think he'll be nominated, and if he upsets for a BAFTA win in this category then that could really switch this race up. Mark Ruffalo is not only overdue but respected, with The Kids Are All Right being assured views of its screeners that will showcase a performance that caters to all of his acting strengths. Jeremy Renner is an Academy darling, quite frankly, doing plenty of rounds and making himself available for Academy events year-wide (such as announcing the Student Academy Awards). His performance has passion in a film that already has passion, and he's still hot from his breakthrough nomination last year for Best Picture winner (nay, dominator) The Hurt Locker. A John Hawkes nomination for Winter's Bone would also fit perfectly into an Academy narrative, being such an underappreciated character actor in a great Oscar-bait film. It's a narrative that tends to be more successful with the SAG, however, which doesn't often align 20/20 and I don't think the British contingent will let Andrew Garfield (or me) down.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Don't mind the rankings. Anyone who has a chance to be nominated has a chance to win, and the only reason I don't have one of the ladies from The Fighter on top is because of the probability of vote splitting between them. And I don't have Hailee Steinfeld's great performance as a precocious young girl in True Grit because voters genuinely don't find her supporting, and like I said earlier, she has some tough competition for that last lead actress slot. Either way, it'll siphon votes from her in both categories. Paramount attached a letter to Academy voters in the screeners sent to them urging them to nominate a performance in both categories if they're not sure of its proper placement. At the same time, however, Academy governors like Tom Hanks have sent out letters urging voters to place performances where they honestly think they should be placed. Could be trouble for this young girl, who's career will probably be bright in any case.

Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Kids Are All Right
2. The King's Speech
3. Inception
4. The Fighter
5. Another Year

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Social Network
2. True Grit
3. Winter's Bone
4. Toy Story 3
5. The Town

Best Animated Film:
1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist