Friday, February 25, 2011

Final Oscar Predictions

I guess since I have a movie blog, I should probably do this. Right?


Best Picture: The King's Speech

I do think they will want to spread the wealth around this year, but I don't see an upset happening in this category this year. The Oscars are a numbers game, and you need specific blocks of voters to put you over the top. When you have producers, directors, and actors on your side — you've got it. Game, set, match.

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

This is what most people are predicting, and for the purposes of this blog I feel a need to put it here as well. For my fake ballot at my friend's Oscar party on Sunday, I'll probably check off Tom Hooper's name. Why? Well, so I win either way. Either my prediction is correct or my favorite in the category wins and I'll be more than glad to have been proven wrong. It's a coin toss, but with that in mind I do seem to get the sense that people are voting for David Fincher even if they are supporting The Fighter or The King's Speech (or any other movie). As I said before, its a numbers game. He has the votes of people voting for The Social Network, and that's already a pretty formidable group in itself. Getting enough votes from supporters of other films could be enough to put him over the top.

Besides, The Social Network has been having some better days after its 3-round knockout at the three major guild awards. British directors gave David Fincher the BAFTA for The Social Network, which also won for its Editing and Screenplay that night, and the film also won the ACE Eddy prize (from Editors) and the Sound Editors' guild (which at least shows some strong tech support for the film). Also, just announced, the Publicists' guild gave its prize to The Social Network tonight. Has that ever mattered? Perhaps not, but believe it or not publicists do have a decent size of representation in the Academy. It's hard to ignore the track record of the DGA, but its been a little spottier in the past decade than it was in the years prior and includes directors of commercials and television (among whom Tom Hooper is a much more recognized name). Every other film award possible gave its Director prize to David Fincher.

Then again, Fincher's always been a bit of an outsider.


Best Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Most locked of all the major categories. His closest competitor seems to be Javier Bardem just by virtue of more people having seen his movie as a result of his surprise nomination. He's exactly the average age of a winner in this category, has leftover goodwill from his nomination last year, is the face of the likely Best Picture winner, has heavy British support, is nothing if not effortlessly charming on the awards circuit, and seems to know just about everyone. He plays a KING with a DISABILITY in the runup to WORLD WAR II in a BIOPIC. He won two out of the three most significant critics prizes, and he hasn't lost an industry award yet this year. Alright you get the picture.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Arguably, Natalie seems to have won just as many industry awards as Firth has. Generally, she's a bit on the younger side for this category but she's still the prototypical starlet playing a tortured role that fits this category like a glove. Her only risk this year is overexposure. And, let's face it, girlfriend is overexposed. Between all the talk about her baby, the 5 films either in release right now or that we can see advertisements for in the near future, her film's meme status, her viral laughtrack video from the Golden Globes, it all seems a little much. Some people are thinking an upset is possible for Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, but Bening is just so perfectly emblematic of the type of performance that just...loses. Veteran actress in an indie who was considered an early frontrunner...much like the past few times Bening has lost. There are some things that are simply written, and I think Portman's win is one of them.


Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian Bale, The Fighter

The Fighter is a beloved film and Christian Bale has turned into a beloved actor. Sure, he couldn't win on his own home turf (BAFTA) but that film was less loved there, anyways. We here, stateside, are clearly enamored with The Fighter and Bale has been a household name for a number of years now. Fans have been moaning for years that the man was overdue, and now seems like a role that just...wins in this category. People are considering an upset by Geoffrey Rush, but between the two Supporting categories this is clearly the one the Academy would most likely wish to recognize the film for.


Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Okay, here's the thing. A Rush upset? Okay, I can see that. But while Melissa Leo still wins here? Sweetie, no. Fact is I can actually foresee any of the five women in this category winning, and it was always an open race. Which just makes the recent scandal of Leo's tacky FYC ads at the worst possible timing all the worse. A BAFTA snub was bad enough, especially considering that no one has ever won in this category without a BAFTA nomination ever since the BAFTAs started airing before the Oscars. What she did got a lot of coverage, and some people defended her but most people...didn't. This is the kind of thing that torpedoes campaigns and shoots herself in the foot. This is Russell Crowe in 2001, this is Eddie Murphy in 2006. And, often when an upset happens here the BAFTA is the best foreteller thereof (think Tilda Swinton 07).

Helena Bonham Carter was in 4 Oscar nominated movies this year! 4!! The King's Speech, Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 and The Gruffalo. And they're clearly obsessed with the film she's nominated for. She gave a hilarious BAFTA speech and has been charming people's pants off on the campaign. A lot of people think she's overdue for more recognition.

Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King's Speech

If you can stand out with a personal narrative, story, and campaign for yourself in a category like this with a Picture frontrunner, it'll be hard for you to lose. His closest competition could have potentially been Christopher Nolan but it turns out that major segments of the Academy frankly just weren't that fond of Inception.


Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

If this film wins nothing else, it will win this. It's very very difficult not to vote for its screenplay, of all things, and Aaron Sorkin has worked with just about most people in Hollywood through the years and have helped their careers immensely. It's time for some retribution.


Best Animated Feature Film of the Year: Toy Story 3

It's the only one they thought was good enough to be among the 10 best of the year. So, I guess by default it can't lose.


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year: In A Better World

Best suits their proven tastes.


Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit

Remember what I said about Seidler in standing out with your own narrative in that category? That applies doubly to the below-the-line categories. It won't show his name on the ballot for this category but people know the dude is overdue. And they know that True Grit's cinematography is completely up their alley in this category. Its long landscape shots, natural lighting, large-scaled scope.

Best Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Social Network

Won the ACE Eddie. It's had an uncanny track record in this category for some years now. Plus, with its main competition gone (Inception), the Academy knows little else of editing to give it to any of the other nominees unless they just really are hell bent on rewarding The King's Speech.

Best Art Direction: Eve Stewart and Judy Farr, The King's Speech

Here's what happens when the Academy really likes a film; they're going to look for as many places to reward it as possible. Think The Hurt Locker winning both sound categories last year. It's very possible in the less scrutinized tech awards, and though the sets of The King's Speech might not be as particularly baity as those of Alice in Wonderland or True Grit, for example, but they just like The King's Speech more as a film. Does it make sense? Probably not. Those who voted for it probably started to regret it after those reports came out confirming that it was largely filmed on the same set as some gay pornography.

Best Costume Design: Jenny Beavan, The King's Speech

Same rules above apply here, minus the gay porn.

Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Most visibly difficult makeup job in the more seen film.

Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

This is a bit more of a gamble on my part, admittedly. There seems to be little reason why this shouldn't be another tech they throw The King's Speech's way. The Social Network's score is just one that stands out the most, which the Academy kind of has gone for in the past, as opposed to just going with the Best Picture winner (unless both apply, like Slumdog Millionaire). The Social Network's won more awards, seems like the hipper choice (they don't care about being hip — unless it comes to music), and the one more people talk about.

Best Original Song: A.R. Rahman and Dido, "If I Rise," 127 Hours

The Academy genuinely likes Rahman (for good reason), and this seems to be the only possible place to reward a film that enough Academy members seemed to like enough to save a slot for in their Best Picture lineup (Toy Story 3's already winning Animated Feature).

Best Sound Mixing: Inception

They don't like Inception very much, but with some films there's still a certain sense of obligation to give it a certain size of recognition. If you're technically sophisticated enough to discuss the actual merits of sound mixing, a very valid argument could be made that Inception's is simply muddled. A lot of sound mixers themselves think so, as a result the film didn't win with that guild. The Academy at large is nowhere near at that level of sound literacy, however, and are just going to vote Inception down the line in these categories.

Best Sound Editing: Inception

Down the line.

Best Visual Effects: Inception

Down the line.

Best Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop

They say "curiosity killed the cat." It also might cause quite the ruckus this Sunday night. If there's anything of all-time level proportions that can happen in this year's Oscar telecast, I assure you a win from Banksy will be it. What he has up his sleeve? No one really knows, but aren't you dying to find out? I think a lot of people in the Academy themselves are, too. Its closest competitor is Inside Job, which won the DGA which, in this case, actually has a very poor track record in this category. And I happen to know a lot of people who simply didn't respond to it that much. The one people do respond to is called Waste Land, which depicts an artist in a Brazilian landfill. I haven't seen it, but I've seen the topic of Brazilian landfills captured on film before and its hard for any medium of art depicting it to not make it completely compelling. It's just a fantastic topic that tugs at the heart strings, and people leave loving it with the same passion one might find towards The King's Speech. So don't be too surprised by a surprise in that realm. However, Banksy proved yet again that he is an artist who, if nothing else, is more self-aware of his image than any other artist in the world (even ahead of Lady GaGa) and his well publicized graffiti campaign in Los Angeles during voting season sure provided enough reminders for Academy members, I think, to be persuaded into checking off the more populist choice this year.


Best Documentary, Short Subject: Strangers No More

It's the one people say is the most affecting, so I guess I should go with it. I have no other idea about this category, other than it is about the middle east and that region of the world has gotten so much publicity during the voting weeks. However, a few of the other nominated films concern the same region as well.

Best Short Film, Animated: Madagascar, a Journey Diary

A lot of films in this category tend to kind of blend together, in a way that makes anyone choose between them based on some very slight differences. Which is why the more visually and substantively distinct picture tends to win, because it stands out. That's Madagascar, in this case.

Best Short Film, Live Action: God of Love

Out of any of the short films in this category, it does stand out and you can tell from the reactions of people who watch the films. It dominates their conversation. It's gotten the most press coverage, as far as I've seen.
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Monday, February 21, 2011

A Reflection on the Legacy of this Awards Season



With Oscar ballots due just tomorrow. we're drawing to a close of what was one of the noisiest, most convoluted, and probably ridiculous Oscar seasons that I've ever paid attention to. Makes me long for those inspiring 2002 days where Hayao Miyazaki, Pedro Almodovar, Roman Polanski, Eminem and Michael Moore, among many other deserving names, all became Oscar winners. Then again, that night was rubber-stamped by an oddly populist choice of Chicago for the final win. Will the wealth be nearly so shared this year? We did go from unprecedented sweep to unprecedented sweep this year between The Social Network becoming the winningest film as long as there's been this magnitude of critics' organizations handing out awards across the country to The King's Speech all of a sudden coming in and sweeping every possible major precursor with voting overlap (that is, the guilds for Producers, Actors, and Directors, and the British Academy). It seems like the 90s all over again; Goodfellas vs. Dances with Wolves, Pulp Fiction vs. Forrest Gump, Fargo vs. The English Patient, LA Confidential vs. Titanic, and so on and so forth.

We started with the National Board of Review handing out their awards to kickoff the official start to the critical precursor season, which almost always looks pretty different to the second half of the overall season but has bore a striking resemblance to it the past few years with films like The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire and No Country for Old Men dominating both sectors. And it looked like another film was following in its path, with The Social Network winning more awards than any of them. The Hurt Locker, like The Social Network, had swept the three most prestigious ones in Los Angeles, New York, and the National Society. But the number of Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay prizes that The Social Network lost from any of the dozens of critics groups in the country could be literally counted on your own fingers. With a 95 score on metacritic, as high of a score one could possibly receive for a movie that mainstream, it seemed reasonable that this was simply a film that critics had liked the best in a very long time.



The National Board of Review did a spectacular job, in my opinion (where they're otherwise hit or miss), by rewarding The Social Network in Picture, Director, and Screenplay, and handing out their acting prizes to Jesse Eisenberg, Lesley Manville, Christian Bale and Jacki Weaver. As good of choices as you can possibly get. I was positively giddy at the prospect of this awards season. Unfortunately, this year turned out to be a precise opposite of conventional years where the critics are usually far more inspired than who the NBR hands their prizes out to. Besides the obvious Social Network love, it seemed as if the critics, again (but now more than ever), were more concerned with prognosticating the Oscars rather than voting with the convictions of their own tastes. Largely, this can't be said of the three major bodies who, for example, split their Actress prizes between Kim Hye-ja, Annette Bening and Giovanna Mezzogiorno, but aren't critics the ones who are supposed to give boosts to people like Lesley Manville? Lead OR supporting? Did they really find performances like Noomi Rapace's to be better than Manville's? Not according to her reviews. Critics aren't a mysterious block of people like the Academy, one could legitimately look back to the consensus formed by their reviews to see how they really feel. Did they really feel that Hailee Steinfeld was a supporting actress in True Grit? Clearly, not, but plenty of them still had no problem giving her their Supporting prizes as if they were suddenly slave to campaign narratives.

Critics got carried away with the past few years where the Academy happened to agree with them, and suddenly want to act as if they are some sort of legitimate buzz-maker for all the contenders this year. That's not who they are. At their best, critics spotlight certain films and performances that otherwise would have gone ignored either without their help or even with it — at least they still would have recognized those deserving players this year at all. Either they'd give due recognition to films like Mulholland Dr. or they'd help a film like Sideways in its quest for unlikely Oscar glory. Now, with more critics awards bodies more than ever, this impact could have been amplified in the most helpful way possible. They used to almost never align with the Academy, but that wasn't the point. Arguably the most inspired decision from the Academy was a nomination to Javier Bardem in Biutiful, yet he's the one performance nominated from their choices that garnered little to no recognition from the critics groups beforehand for whom that should be a no-brainer. But critics decided en masse to vote for Colin Firth, as if to make up for their largely ignoring him last year for the more deserving A Single Man (a business they should not be getting into at all) with the occasional bone-throwing to Jesse Eisenberg. But the fact remains that there should have been more variety, especially among the gamut of deserving arthouse performances this year that they did ignored in a very obvious ploy to give themselves an air of self-importance that never existed in the first place.



So now we're in a place where the Academy may have even reacted retroactively to this block of critical consensus in their awards, and The Social Network came away with little more than a Editor's guild award and a few consolation prizes from the Sound Editors. I would say that the behavior of critics this year, as evidenced by snubs like Lesley Manville, in particular (and this may just be symptomatic of my own favoritism, but there are very few people I've ever met who have watched her performance who would label her as anything less than spectacular), is the most shameful legacy of this awards season. And now we see just how little the critics matter after all, with the state of the race looking drastically different than it did just a few months ago. Black Swan and The King's Speech join the likes of True Grit, Toy Story 3, and Inception to be the only Picture nominees to earn more than $100 million at the box office, while The Social Network settled with the not bad $90-something million (although it seems strange that a film skewing that young, with those credentials, makes less money than R-rated Black Swan or The King's Speech).

Now, people seem pretty bitter than The King's Speech has stolen the momentum of The Social Network. It was rather all of a sudden, and, hilariously, after more loud complaints of people moaning that it was boring that The Social Network was winning everything. I guess no one can ever win in this game, can they? Regardless, I'm one in the camp who would much prefer a Social Network win next Sunday night over the more vanilla, expected, conventional choice of The King's Speech. That being said, some of the hyperbole thrown at The King's Speech by its critics are more than a little ridiculous. Like people trying to ridicule Tom Hooper as a TV director for having made John Adams, as if that weren't an utterly masterful creation. Likening it to Masterpiece Theater, although quite a few entries into Masterpiece Theater would likely have been similarly awards-sweeping pictures. With the general uptick of quality in TV programming, it's very very difficult to try and criticize a film by likening it to TV quality. Besides that, Tom Hooper has been on the inside trail for months now being nothing if not utterly charming. Not to mention speaking of his own film with a refreshing candidness, calling the original poster for the film a "train smash" and making a point to refuse to cut his film to salvage a PG-13 rating. It's no surprise to me that he's in the running to win for Directors since he's very good at playing the insiders' game, and everyone shocked that he might is very clearly outside of that "inside."



It does seem strange after such a string of gritty, non-conventional fare being chosen by the Academy that they suddenly go with a film that's such an easy lob down the middle. It seems like it would simply seem too quaint. But what happened? It's not a very political game, I actually think Harvey Weinstein had very little to do with it himself. People do simply legitimately love it, whether in Hollywood or among mainstream audiences. It has a little bit of everything for everyone, which you can see when compared to some of its competitors. For example, Scott Rudin tried to sell as The Social Network's selling point that it's a film for its ages; encapsulating an age in which communication is vastly transformed by this new medium of technology. Well, sure, but in much of the same way as politics and mass media was transformed by the advent of radio which King George must himself learn to master before being an effective public servant. People relate to Black Swan in Nina's strive for perfection in performance, while The King's Speech deals with the same theme of self-consciousness in a form of performing art in its own right. The Fighter depicts a dynamic relationship between a champion and a more charming and enigmatic older brother who tends to steal the spotlight, a relationship comparable to that between King Edward who abdicates his throne to King George. An unlikely relationship at the center of True Grit between Rooster Cogburn and Mattie Ross is at the center of The King's Speech between King George and Lionel Logue. Even the social stigma against the central characters of The Kids Are All Right can be compared to that of the stuttering King George. It's a royal costume drama, a period piece, a biopic, World War II is central to its plot, hints at the Holocaust, depicts a disability, it just ticks off all the boxes people like to see in their films. And it's not on purpose, a conscious measure on the part of screenwriter David Seidler, that's simply the way events transpired.

And now we're here.
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Saturday, February 12, 2011

BAFTA Awards



Potentially the most significant of awards precursors to the Oscars is coming this upcoming Sunday, when the British Academy of Film and Television Awards are handed out. Due to differences in voting procedures the results don't necessarily align 100% with the actual Academy's itself, but there is the largest overlap of voters from any body and could often be indicative of larger voting trends at play which can prove to be a deciding factor in an open race.

In this case, there isn't all that much excitement to be had. It's clear that The King's Speech is even more of a phenomenon in the UK than it is in this country, and that's saying something considering its trifecta sweep of the guilds. But a sweep here isn't necessarily so safe — all it means is that Best Film is perhaps the least competitive category of the bunch.

BEST FILM:
Nominees:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit


Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: Nothing else, really.
Should Win: Only in my humble opinion, The Social Network. But it doesn't stand a chance in hell here, making very little splash at the box office and with very few nominations even compared to the likes of fellow competitors Inception and Black Swan which will probably pull ahead of it.

People often misconstrue this for meaning that the category for Best British Film — in which The King's Speech is also nominated — is also locked up. After all, how can it be the best film if it's not the best British film? Well, this category is voted upon by a separate jury that has its own unique tastes; often for the quirky and independent. Never has a British film that won Best Film also win for this category — it's almost as if they intentionally avoid it. Slumdog Millionaire lost it. The Queen lost it. Atonement lost it. It just doesn't happen.

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Another Year
Four Lions
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham


Will Win: Four Lions fits the prototypical winner in this category to a T, more or less.
Could and Should Win: It would be lovely to see Another Year win, here, although I haven't seen the supposedly hilarious Four Lions.

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Nominees:
The Arbor
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Four Lions
Monsters
Skeleton


Will Win: My brain says The Arbor, my heart says semi-sensation Monsters.
Should Win: I haven't seen most of the contenders, here (should be getting to The Arbor pretty soon), but it's always an interesting prospect to give Banksy (Exit Through the Gift Shop) an award.

DIRECTOR:
Nominees:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network


Will Win: Even barring wishful thinking, this category often splits because it's just those in the directors' branch voting for this. They often go with the more accomplished auteur, in which David Fincher clearly fits the bill for The Social Network. But I guess you can never count Tom Hooper out.
Could Win: As I said, Tom Hooper, but don't count out accomplished Brit Christopher Nolan, either!
Should Win: I would love to see David Fincher take this.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech


Will Win: David Seidler's got this one sewn up for The King's Speech
Could Win: WGA winner Inception
Should Win: Another Year, but the BAFTA writers don't seem as enamored with Leigh's writing process as the AMPAS writing branch to nominate it.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
127 Hours
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit


Will Win: No matter what you think of The Social Network, it's difficult difficult lemon difficult to deny Aaron Sorkin of this prize for his work.
Could Win: True Grit is the only other Best Film nominee here, but evidently the Brits really love Dragon Tattoo.
Should Win: I would actually vote for Toy Story 3, here. But I'd still feel very bad for Aaron Sorkin if he lost.

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Nominees:
Biutiful
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
I Am Love
Of Gods and Men
The Secret In Their Eyes


Will Win: I just have a hankering that they would respond really well to Biutiful
Could Win: Any of them, really. Dragon Tattoo is a European cultural phenomenon, Tilda Swinton's in I Am Love, Of Gods and Men is French and the only nationality the Brits love more than themselves is the French, and The Secret In Their Eyes is thoroughly entertaining.
Should Win: These nominees kind of blow.

ANIMATED FILM:
Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3


Will Win: Toy Story 3
Could Win: Uhh, I guess Annie sweeper How To Train Your Dragon
Should Win: If it were up to me, I would make it a tie between Toy Story 3 and write-in candidate (and inexplicably left off) The Illusionist.

Funny how Leading Actor seemed to match up with the Academy lineup 5/5. Last season, the BAFTA provided a rare source of inspiration by rewarding Colin Firth's work in A Single Man — quite frankly one of the best performances ever Oscar nominated in this category (although he lost out most of the season to Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart).

LEADING ACTOR:
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours


Will Win: Colin Firth seems slated for an easy back-to-back win.
Could Win: Javier Bardem's deeply affecting performance in a foreign language, which the BAFTAs have historically been kinder to.
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, for the Shakespearean cadence with which he delivered his deeply Sorkinian dialogue.

With a Bening upset at this week's London Film Critics Awards, people are thinking of a possible Bening upset in the Leading Actress category over Natalie Portman. Can it really happen?

LEADING ACTRESS:
Nominees:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit


Will Win and Should Win: You bet against Natalie Portman and her film's 12 nominations at your own risk.
Could Win: I actually think Bening's co-star sharing this category with her is a bit of a deathwish for Bening's chances, for a vocal group of voters who prefer Moore will almost surely take votes away from her. I'd say Steinfeld might actually be second in line.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Nominees:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Pete Postlethwaite, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech


Will Win: Clearly it's a race between Welsh fave Bale and heart of BP fave Rush. Considering the Melissa Leo snub, which I think has less to do with Leo's name recognition than a lack of enthusiasm for The Fighter itself (if Amy Adams and Christian Bale were only nominated by name recognition, that's not saying much good for the film), and a lot of people genuinely just not knowing that Bale is, in fact, British (to his credit!), I'm gonna take the odds on Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech the way he won for Shakespeare in Love over a decade ago.
Could and Should Win: I already mentioned Christian Bale, but if it's really that close of a race and they split I think former BAFTA winner and hometown darling Andrew Garfield will win his 3rd hometown prize for his performance in The Social Network. But I won't get my hopes up.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Nominees:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham


Will and Should Win: I get the sense that filling the void for the snub of Melissa Leo and likely runner-up Hailee Steinfeld promoted to lead, that Lesley Manville — my favorite performance of the year — wins the same way that Melissa Leo's been winning American prizes. Older but less recognized but dependable country character actress in an incredibly flashy and showy role. Something tells me if she made it far enough for a top five mention in a category she could have otherwise split votes for herself from in Round I and then making it to Round II's shortlist that she has enough strength to take the win.
Could Win: Helena Bonham Carter could very well coattail this thing to an Oscar, a road to which this would be a crucial prize to win.

ORIGINAL MUSIC:
Nominees:
AR Rahman, 127 Hours
Danny Elfman, Alice in Wonderland
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech


Will Win: Musicians voting here deeply admire Desplat, and the BAFTA voting public at large loves The King's Speech. Looks to me like a match made in heaven.
Could Win: Musicians are also rather obsessed with AR Rahman, and particularly his score for 127 Hours. The category also includes the song he was Oscar nominated for this year, which BAFTA doesn't have a separate category for.
Should Win: John Powell's soaring melodies for How To Train Your Dragon.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit


Will and Should Win: The BAFTA history of this category suggests more artistic and darker choices, of which I think Black Swan fits best.
Could Win: Oscar favorite True Grit, or just The King's Speech if it sweeps.

EDITING:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network


Will and Should Win: I honestly have no idea, but this is more or less The Social Network's only tech nomination and one I can see Editors appreciating enough to give it a win. Something tells me that's off, though.
Could Win: Oscar snubbed Inception.

PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit


Will Win: Seems too easy to not give to The King's Speech
Could Win: Production designers themselves might very much admire the sets of Inception or go with the easy bait of Alice in Wonderland.
Should Win: For my money, True Grit.

COSTUME DESIGN:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit


Will Win: Honestly I can't think of a reason not to just throw this one at The King's Speech.
Could and Should Win: Made in Dagenham

SOUND:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit


Will Win: Looks like Inception.
Could Win: I can't see anything else winning.
Should Win: Black Swan would be cool, but honestly anything other than The King's Speech would be deserving, here.

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Toy Story 3


Will and Should Win: Inception. Signed, sealed and delivered.

Makeup and Hair:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham


Will Win: I don't even know. I guess Alice in Wonderland?
Could and Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1

RISING STAR AWARD:
Nominees:
Gemma Arterton
Tom Hardy
Andrew Garfield
Aaron Johnson
Emma Stone


Will Win: Actors from public phenomena tend to fare best here, as Kristen Stewart won last year with the help of Twihards. Inception's Tom Hardy should fare well, here.
Could Win: Gemma Arterton's a hottie.
Should Win: The man who's already beat Tom Hardy for a BAFTA once before, and has undoubtedly had a better year, Andrew Garfield.
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Friday, February 11, 2011

Review: HaHaHa


Munkyung is a young Korean filmmaker planning on moving to Canada to live with an aunt. Few days prior to leaving, he catches up with his friend Jungshik over drinks. They swap fond stories of their recent adventures in a small seaside town without realizing how intersected their respective tales were in time, place, and people involved.

Writer/director Sangsoo Hong frames his screenplay in this friendly conversation between several rounds of drinks, painting a full portrait of groups of friends drifting through their summer in joy, sorrow, and immense self-consciousness. Hong makes sure to remind us of the subjective and probably not entirely trustworthy framing of the story by interrupting long sequences of their memories in color and motion with black and white montages of still photos showing their present conversation, with voice over of the men chatting and laughing before initiating the next segment with multiple "cheers." Clearly playing against the conventional instinct to show memory and pastness in black and white or through still photographs rather than the present, Hong gives us fascinating insight into his perspective of how memories are formed and play out more colorfully and cinematically than our present does.

More to the probable point, however, is the humanity with which these characters interact with each other. Our two narrators agree in the beginning to only reflect upon pleasant memories, but what plays out is not necessarily a rosy picture. The people we follow are not perfect — in fact, most of them can be downright irritating and unlikeable. This can make it difficult for Hong to maintain the viewer's attention throughout the film's slowly paced running time, but, with patience, the audience will be rewarded with a humane sympathy towards these characters in spite of their wallowing self-pity, aching self-consciousness and sensitivity for the simple fact that these colors only show when they interact with people they care about. It's less about the characters on their own than it is about the dynamics of the important personal relationships they keep, whether out of friendship, family, or romance.

HaHaHa is a more vérité entry in a blossoming New Wave for Korean cinema which had a very successful year at last year's Cannes Film Festival — with this film winning the Un Certain Regard prize joining the fantastic film Poetry (from the same production company, Finecut) taking screenplay honors in the main competition. Actress Sori Moon is Seongok, the strong-willed and proudly independent woman who still holds a basic need for a loving intimacy. Moon is on the younger end of the ensemble that spans a diverse group of all walks of life in age, shape and profession to give a broad spectrum of Korean life including the more middle aged Munkyung, whom she ultimately ends up with, and his mother (the old Korean mother being a central figure in many Korean films such as Mother or Poetry).

HaHaHa will have a special screening at the newly renovated Museum of the Moving Image on Sunday, February 20th at 6 p.m. as part of their "Korean Cinema Now" series with the help of The Korea Society.
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