Final Oscar Predictions

I guess since I have a movie blog, I should probably do this. Right?


Best Picture: The King's Speech

I do think they will want to spread the wealth around this year, but I don't see an upset happening in this category this year. The Oscars are a numbers game, and you need specific blocks of voters to put you over the top. When you have producers, directors, and actors on your side — you've got it. Game, set, match.

Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network

This is what most people are predicting, and for the purposes of this blog I feel a need to put it here as well. For my fake ballot at my friend's Oscar party on Sunday, I'll probably check off Tom Hooper's name. Why? Well, so I win either way. Either my prediction is correct or my favorite in the category wins and I'll be more than glad to have been proven wrong. It's a coin toss, but with that in mind I do seem to get the sense that people are voting for David Fincher even if they are supporting The Fighter or The King's Speech (or any other movie). As I said before, its a numbers game. He has the votes of people voting for The Social Network, and that's already a pretty formidable group in itself. Getting enough votes from supporters of other films could be enough to put him over the top.

Besides, The Social Network has been having some better days after its 3-round knockout at the three major guild awards. British directors gave David Fincher the BAFTA for The Social Network, which also won for its Editing and Screenplay that night, and the film also won the ACE Eddy prize (from Editors) and the Sound Editors' guild (which at least shows some strong tech support for the film). Also, just announced, the Publicists' guild gave its prize to The Social Network tonight. Has that ever mattered? Perhaps not, but believe it or not publicists do have a decent size of representation in the Academy. It's hard to ignore the track record of the DGA, but its been a little spottier in the past decade than it was in the years prior and includes directors of commercials and television (among whom Tom Hooper is a much more recognized name). Every other film award possible gave its Director prize to David Fincher.

Then again, Fincher's always been a bit of an outsider.


Best Actor in a Leading Role: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Most locked of all the major categories. His closest competitor seems to be Javier Bardem just by virtue of more people having seen his movie as a result of his surprise nomination. He's exactly the average age of a winner in this category, has leftover goodwill from his nomination last year, is the face of the likely Best Picture winner, has heavy British support, is nothing if not effortlessly charming on the awards circuit, and seems to know just about everyone. He plays a KING with a DISABILITY in the runup to WORLD WAR II in a BIOPIC. He won two out of the three most significant critics prizes, and he hasn't lost an industry award yet this year. Alright you get the picture.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Arguably, Natalie seems to have won just as many industry awards as Firth has. Generally, she's a bit on the younger side for this category but she's still the prototypical starlet playing a tortured role that fits this category like a glove. Her only risk this year is overexposure. And, let's face it, girlfriend is overexposed. Between all the talk about her baby, the 5 films either in release right now or that we can see advertisements for in the near future, her film's meme status, her viral laughtrack video from the Golden Globes, it all seems a little much. Some people are thinking an upset is possible for Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, but Bening is just so perfectly emblematic of the type of performance that just...loses. Veteran actress in an indie who was considered an early frontrunner...much like the past few times Bening has lost. There are some things that are simply written, and I think Portman's win is one of them.


Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christian Bale, The Fighter

The Fighter is a beloved film and Christian Bale has turned into a beloved actor. Sure, he couldn't win on his own home turf (BAFTA) but that film was less loved there, anyways. We here, stateside, are clearly enamored with The Fighter and Bale has been a household name for a number of years now. Fans have been moaning for years that the man was overdue, and now seems like a role that just...wins in this category. People are considering an upset by Geoffrey Rush, but between the two Supporting categories this is clearly the one the Academy would most likely wish to recognize the film for.


Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Okay, here's the thing. A Rush upset? Okay, I can see that. But while Melissa Leo still wins here? Sweetie, no. Fact is I can actually foresee any of the five women in this category winning, and it was always an open race. Which just makes the recent scandal of Leo's tacky FYC ads at the worst possible timing all the worse. A BAFTA snub was bad enough, especially considering that no one has ever won in this category without a BAFTA nomination ever since the BAFTAs started airing before the Oscars. What she did got a lot of coverage, and some people defended her but most people...didn't. This is the kind of thing that torpedoes campaigns and shoots herself in the foot. This is Russell Crowe in 2001, this is Eddie Murphy in 2006. And, often when an upset happens here the BAFTA is the best foreteller thereof (think Tilda Swinton 07).

Helena Bonham Carter was in 4 Oscar nominated movies this year! 4!! The King's Speech, Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 and The Gruffalo. And they're clearly obsessed with the film she's nominated for. She gave a hilarious BAFTA speech and has been charming people's pants off on the campaign. A lot of people think she's overdue for more recognition.

Best Original Screenplay: David Seidler, The King's Speech

If you can stand out with a personal narrative, story, and campaign for yourself in a category like this with a Picture frontrunner, it'll be hard for you to lose. His closest competition could have potentially been Christopher Nolan but it turns out that major segments of the Academy frankly just weren't that fond of Inception.


Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

If this film wins nothing else, it will win this. It's very very difficult not to vote for its screenplay, of all things, and Aaron Sorkin has worked with just about most people in Hollywood through the years and have helped their careers immensely. It's time for some retribution.


Best Animated Feature Film of the Year: Toy Story 3

It's the only one they thought was good enough to be among the 10 best of the year. So, I guess by default it can't lose.


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year: In A Better World

Best suits their proven tastes.


Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit

Remember what I said about Seidler in standing out with your own narrative in that category? That applies doubly to the below-the-line categories. It won't show his name on the ballot for this category but people know the dude is overdue. And they know that True Grit's cinematography is completely up their alley in this category. Its long landscape shots, natural lighting, large-scaled scope.

Best Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Social Network

Won the ACE Eddie. It's had an uncanny track record in this category for some years now. Plus, with its main competition gone (Inception), the Academy knows little else of editing to give it to any of the other nominees unless they just really are hell bent on rewarding The King's Speech.

Best Art Direction: Eve Stewart and Judy Farr, The King's Speech

Here's what happens when the Academy really likes a film; they're going to look for as many places to reward it as possible. Think The Hurt Locker winning both sound categories last year. It's very possible in the less scrutinized tech awards, and though the sets of The King's Speech might not be as particularly baity as those of Alice in Wonderland or True Grit, for example, but they just like The King's Speech more as a film. Does it make sense? Probably not. Those who voted for it probably started to regret it after those reports came out confirming that it was largely filmed on the same set as some gay pornography.

Best Costume Design: Jenny Beavan, The King's Speech

Same rules above apply here, minus the gay porn.

Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Most visibly difficult makeup job in the more seen film.

Best Original Score: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

This is a bit more of a gamble on my part, admittedly. There seems to be little reason why this shouldn't be another tech they throw The King's Speech's way. The Social Network's score is just one that stands out the most, which the Academy kind of has gone for in the past, as opposed to just going with the Best Picture winner (unless both apply, like Slumdog Millionaire). The Social Network's won more awards, seems like the hipper choice (they don't care about being hip — unless it comes to music), and the one more people talk about.

Best Original Song: A.R. Rahman and Dido, "If I Rise," 127 Hours

The Academy genuinely likes Rahman (for good reason), and this seems to be the only possible place to reward a film that enough Academy members seemed to like enough to save a slot for in their Best Picture lineup (Toy Story 3's already winning Animated Feature).

Best Sound Mixing: Inception

They don't like Inception very much, but with some films there's still a certain sense of obligation to give it a certain size of recognition. If you're technically sophisticated enough to discuss the actual merits of sound mixing, a very valid argument could be made that Inception's is simply muddled. A lot of sound mixers themselves think so, as a result the film didn't win with that guild. The Academy at large is nowhere near at that level of sound literacy, however, and are just going to vote Inception down the line in these categories.

Best Sound Editing: Inception

Down the line.

Best Visual Effects: Inception

Down the line.

Best Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop

They say "curiosity killed the cat." It also might cause quite the ruckus this Sunday night. If there's anything of all-time level proportions that can happen in this year's Oscar telecast, I assure you a win from Banksy will be it. What he has up his sleeve? No one really knows, but aren't you dying to find out? I think a lot of people in the Academy themselves are, too. Its closest competitor is Inside Job, which won the DGA which, in this case, actually has a very poor track record in this category. And I happen to know a lot of people who simply didn't respond to it that much. The one people do respond to is called Waste Land, which depicts an artist in a Brazilian landfill. I haven't seen it, but I've seen the topic of Brazilian landfills captured on film before and its hard for any medium of art depicting it to not make it completely compelling. It's just a fantastic topic that tugs at the heart strings, and people leave loving it with the same passion one might find towards The King's Speech. So don't be too surprised by a surprise in that realm. However, Banksy proved yet again that he is an artist who, if nothing else, is more self-aware of his image than any other artist in the world (even ahead of Lady GaGa) and his well publicized graffiti campaign in Los Angeles during voting season sure provided enough reminders for Academy members, I think, to be persuaded into checking off the more populist choice this year.


Best Documentary, Short Subject: Strangers No More

It's the one people say is the most affecting, so I guess I should go with it. I have no other idea about this category, other than it is about the middle east and that region of the world has gotten so much publicity during the voting weeks. However, a few of the other nominated films concern the same region as well.

Best Short Film, Animated: Madagascar, a Journey Diary

A lot of films in this category tend to kind of blend together, in a way that makes anyone choose between them based on some very slight differences. Which is why the more visually and substantively distinct picture tends to win, because it stands out. That's Madagascar, in this case.

Best Short Film, Live Action: God of Love

Out of any of the short films in this category, it does stand out and you can tell from the reactions of people who watch the films. It dominates their conversation. It's gotten the most press coverage, as far as I've seen.