I cannot believe I left Olivier Assayas off of my contenders list for Director for today's LA announcement where he tied with David Fincher, considering I predict him for the same prize with the NSFC. Anyways. Whatever. The winners generally came from the nifty chart I provided, even though my own personal choices generally didn't make it (except The Social Network which is a rather easy call) with the exception, also, of Kim Hye-ja for Mother.
For NY, there aren't too many trends to look at. Except for what the NY Critics themselves liked. Armond White, who served as the President of the jury last year, is infamous for the negative reviews he hands out. But it makes it a lot easier to see, with what he likes, what the consensus might be among NY critics.
The safe one to put your money on, again, is The Social Network. I don't sense too much aggravation with its sweep that would cause the New Yorkers to rebel with a crazier choice. It's been reported that the New York Circle also really loved Sofia Coppolla's Somewhere and the love is palpable for Danny Boyle's 127 Hours.
Another Year, unlike LA where it was sadly shut out, has been screening often in New York and is featured on Armond White's top five list, as well as in the top three of the Sight & Sound poll. Fingers crossed, but I do expect Lesley Manville to come out with a win here. If Natalie Portman beats her, expect Manville's Oscar chances to go way down. But I think the film is generally a formidable dark horse in plenty of categories here.
Absolute ABWAFB favorite Andrew Garfield got high marks for his supporting turn in The Social Network, but Christian Bale might continue his utter domination of the awards with a win, here. The Fighter has some very enthusiastic fans from New York. If Christian Bale wins, one could safely call him our very first Oscar lock for a win entirely. Another potential winner is John Hawkes as a potential place to reward critics' darling Winter's Bone. Of course, we could see a repeat of LA rewarding Neils Arrestrup for his arresting (har har) performance in A Prophet.
Don't forget about Carlos, which I expected NY critics to respond to a lot more enthusiastically than LA did, but LA gave it a win in Director, Foreign, and a runner-up in Actor for the ever sexy Edgar Ramirez.
So, here are some contenders!
Picture: 127 Hours, Another Year, Carlos, A Prophet, The Social Network*, Somewhere
Director: Jacques Audiard, Danny Boyle, Sofia Coppola, David Fincher*, Mike Leigh, Olivier Assayas
Actor: Stephen Dorff*, Jesse Eisenberg, Ryan Gosling, James Franco, Tahar Rahim, Edgar Ramirez
Actress: Annette Bening, Kim Hye-ja, Jennifer Lawrence, Lesley Manville*, Natalie Portman, Paprika Steen
Supporting Actor: Niels Arrestrup, Christian Bale, Jim Broadbent, Vincent Cassell, Andrew Garfield*, John Hawkes
Supporting Actress: Dale Dickey, Mila Kunis, Melissa Leo, Ruth Sheen, Jacki Weaver*, Olivia Williams
Screenplay: The Social Network* (let's not kid ourselves, here)
Animated: The Illusionist*, Tangled, Toy Story 3
Cinematography: Black Swan, True Grit*
Foreign: A Prophet, Carlos*, I Am Love, Mother
Non-Fiction: Exit Through the Gift Shop*, Inside Job, Restrepo, The Tillman Story, Waiting for Superman
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