MOB: How bout dem leads?

The lead categories are quickly crowding themselves, and many great performance will probably be left to the wayside. Who can make the cut, and who has the best chance of winning?

We'll start with lead actor, which I suspect will be lined up with Best Picture contenders.

1. Colin Firth - The King's Speech
2. James Franco - 127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
4. Jeff Bridges - True Grit
5. Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
6. Robert Duvall - Get Low
7. Javier Bardem - Biutiful
8. Michael Douglas - Solitary Man

The difference here is whether their films will get seen or not, and that's why the first four slots are filled by performances in probable Picture contenders that will be seen, with the last slot being the remaining film with the most chances to be seen. Colin Firth has the appearance of an easy frontrunner, being in a film jockeying for the whole win and coming fresh off of a snub of a brilliant performance last year in A Single Man to an overdue performance — ironic in two ways. 1) Somehow their mistake in not giving him the win then makes him overdue now and 2) He's likely to face the man he lost to last year again.
That's what separates him from James Franco, who won a critics poll of the best actor in show at the Toronto Film Festival. He might face similar success in his one man act with the critics awards this season, and if his film really takes off would be serious competition to Mr. Firth.
Jesse Eisenberg's another young ingenue in the mix this year, like Franco, going for his first nomination this year. As the face, soul, and carrier of this generational "event" of a film, I do think he will be hard to forget and will carry a formidable number of critics awards on his own a la Jeremy Renner last year for The Hurt Locker. Winning, though, would be difficult.
Then we have Jeff Bridges, blah blah blah, leftover admiration from last year in a major Picture contender. Then, call me crazy, I just made the decision to keep Gosling in a predicted five. Why? Well, many people saw Blue Valentine's chances as deflating with many other films stealing its spotlight and taking attention away from it, until it came roaring back in the conversation recently with a harsh NC-17. Derek Cianfrance refuses to make cuts to it. Now it's chances must be dead for sure, right? Wrong. This is exactly what it needs. Everyone knows the rating on it is bullshit, but it peaks a curiosity factor nonetheless. Particularly among the actors, who will need to see just how realistic Gosling and Williams made their sex scenes that pushed this film over the MPAA's edge. And that's exactly who needs to see it for the actors and the film itself to see any success. As we speak, Harvey is working to appeal the rating to the MPAA — wise, and safe, decision. Best case scenario is that the rating gets overturned and is allowed to be released in more markets with an R rating in conjunction with the talk it generated with an initial NC-17. But, if not, Harvey can milk the hell out of that NC-17 rating and turn this into an opportunity to bring back the NC-17 rating to artistic credibility.
That will get it more seen than Biutiful, anyways. The film is divisive but generated talk among Academy-liked Bardem after his Cannes win this past year, and is said to be in the conversation for this year's Foreign Language Film category (though it might be a bit stranger for the average Foreign-voting member). Get Low has already been seen, and that perhaps may lie its problem. Though it's not out of the question that AMPAS is bombarded with screeners bearing the star's name — ROBERT DUVALL. And then, of course, we have the potential sympathy vote with Michael Douglas with a performance in Solitary Man that I've already seen testimonials of by Academy members who loved it.

Note: All 5-8 have a reasonable chance at that last slot.



As for lead actress, things are especially competitive this year.

1. Natalie Portman - Black Swan
2. Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
3. Lesley Manville - Another Year
4. Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
5. Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
6. Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right
7. Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
8. Sally Hawkins - Made in Dagenham

It's looking, though, as if people will want to shape this fascinating year into a Portman vs. Bening showdown. Both should easily be able to claim respective Golden Globes (Portman for Drama and Bening for Comedy/Musical) making this super old school. There are those, however, that suggest that Black Swan simply will not get the necessary love to put Portman in contention for the win (notably the podcast earlier today from InContention). I think not, though. The narrative seems perfect: Natalie Portman is completely respected in Hollywood, at a perfectly ripe age that they love to reward in this category in a role considered baity and brilliantly executed. It will have passionate and enthusiastic fans that I think will push it into other categories, leaving this the only probable one with a remote chance of rewarding the film itself with. But, admittedly, that last reason is shakier considering just how out of the ordinary this film might seem to the Academy.
Which would leave the next battle option between Annette Bening and Lesley Manville, which the InContention folks seemed to consider a much more viable option. Both similar in hearing cries from Oscar watchers who think that they should instead be campaigned in a much weaker Supporting category where they'd be much more likely to be nominated and perhaps even win. However, they do seem pretty safe and much of a reason why this lead category is so crowded, and possibly two of the frontrunners for the win itself. Bening benefits from seeming overdue (thought of as a runner-up for both American Beauty and Being Julia, both of which she lost out to Hilary Swank) and being in a more "seen" film. However, people genuinely love Manville's performance. Arguably it's been received more kindly by the critics, and in many ways would be the opportunity to reward the 60-something year old Mike Leigh. Even if it's not specifically giving him an Oscar in the form of director or screenplay, which would be difficult for him this year but not out of the question, the Academy could decide for the first time that they want to recognize the achievements of one of his actors in recognition of his very actor-centric process of extreme improvisation in approaching his films.



Not to mention, the film will play very well to older members of the Academy. I think it will also see much British love, considering its a weepier Mike Leigh film than something like Happy-Go-Lucky passed over two years ago. This could often be the deciding factor in close races, as with Marion Cotillard's BAFTA-supported performances three years ago or Tilda Swinton's that same year. Her character is a tragic one, one whose found herself in desperately lonely circumstances that leaves her with little other option other than to seem pathetic. She sculpts a character from the ground up from the start of the film, appearing to the audience in just her character's facade in her drunken comfort. Slowly she unravels, though, revealing personal traumas of her past and a clingy dependence on her friend Gerri (played marvelously by Ruth Sheen). By the very last frame of the very last shot of the very last scene, however, our hearts are simply torn apart as it seems that the only way Mary can feel any semblance of love from this family that she needs in her life she needs to butt out of the actual family dynamic of Gerri's, and continue to repress her actual personality and self, which probably leaves her feelings of unloved loneliness inevitably strong.

Well, perhaps you know who I'm championing.

I also see a slot for Nicole Kidman's comeback role in Rabbit Hole, though this already Oscar winner isn't in conversation for the win. I keep Michelle Williams in my top five for Blue Valentine the same way and largely for the same reasons that Ryan Gosling remains in my lineup.

I do hope Julianne Moore, my personal preference between her in Bening in their film, is able to be given at least a chance. She is arguably more overdue for more roles and going tete-a-tete in scenes with Bening, she wins. Her delivery of lines like "just listen to me" seem to blunt any impact Bening has against her, despite her being very strong in her individual scenes. I'm not even that big of a fan of hers, compared to those who think she deserved wins in Short Cuts, Boogie Nights, The Big Lebowski, Magnolia, The End of the Affair, The Hours and Far From Heaven. But I think she deserves at least as much attention as her co-star.

Jennifer Lawrence seems to be a quaint name in such a big year, but with the aid of critics help (Winter's Bone remaining one of the best reviewed of the year), DVD screeners being shoveled to Academy voters' doors and at least a SAG nomination (to make her this year's Melissa Leo), she could sneak in a slot of her own.

And then I include Sally Hawkins for Made in Dagenham, a film that many see playing well to Academy members and seeing Hawkins, also wonderfully warm in Never Let Me Go, as a sure-thing standout. With attention to co-star Miranda Richardson's chances in Supporting, Hawkins' film has a chance to be seen and perhaps loved enough to see her get a nomination to make up for her monstrosity of a snub for Happy-Go-Lucky.