I've already granted you my tech predictions, but I will recount them at the end for y'all with a full set up of my prediction, the most likely alternative and whether or not it's a safe alternative. This will hopefully make it easier for anyone wanting to play this game on their own so that they don't depend on my gutsy moves. But, as for the majors...
Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker seemed to be coming out ahead in recent weeks winning the only precursor known to us voted upon by some Academy members and over Inglourious Basterds. Yes, I do believe that was significant. The BAFTA often proves the deciding factor in close races, and if a frontrunner sweeps at the BAFTAs then it generally means its over and done with (except for Brokeback Mountain but that was a whole set of crazy circumstances that year). But, whether significant or not, there seems to be a lot of false outrage at the film this year for a set of controversies including a nominated producer encouraging voters to place the "500 million dollar film" *hint hint* near the bottom of their ballot so that The Hurt Locker could win (is it that classless? Not worse than most Weinsteinien tactics, plus he's a first time player who didn't know the rules of the game) and military personnel insisting that the character SSG William James is not a realistic personality in the field of IEDs in Iraq (though he was meant to serve more as a personification of general American attitudes going into the war against the more honest "careful" characterization of the actual soldiers around him). Some even insist that the story is too true and plan to sue the makers for basing it on their life. What will this mean? I don't think it comes at the cost of its Picture prize, but I do believe that enough people were false outraged by the controversies that it may have cost Mark Boal his Oscar and tipped the balance for Quentin Tarantino — whose been campaigned the hell out of by Harvey Weinstein going "all the way" and exploding the city of LA with advertisements. It has the support of most film geeks and a great many critics, and with little else in contention for it I think the last string of votes may have gone in slight favor of Inglourious Basterds. But, it's close.
My prediction: Inglourious Basterds
Alternative choice: The Hurt Locker (safe choice)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner seem destined for this prize as the consolation for Up in the Air, or, the film that could have been. Initially slated as a frontrunner after the National Board of Review honored it with its top prize (an assumption I always saw as a mistake), it became vastly overshadowed by the story of Avatar in the awards season and through its theatrical run (any other contender — Basterds, Hurt Locker, Precious — all had come out by that point). However, the screenplay received every possible precursor it could have. It even topped Basterds at the Golden Globes (which does not separate Original from Adapted Screenplay). With a WGA and BAFTA also under its belt over closest competitor Precious, the film seems all but certain to nab this prize.
My prediction: Up in the Air
Alternative choice: District 9 (extremely unsafe choice)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
A lot of people didn't want Mo'Nique to be here. They threw mud slinging articles around calling her a diva, suggesting that she's not respectable enough a figure to honor with an Oscar. There have been calls by assholes like Jeffrey Welles demanding she not be given recognition due to her lack of campaigning (as if that's a lack of respect for the process?). Well, guess what. She's here, baby. And she's here to stay, no matter what the old bitter farts want to say about it. Actually, she's been here for a while. I would say she's been a lock since Sundance last February. She's only gotten stronger since then and is past Ledgerian lock-status at this point, as far as I'm concerned.
My prediction: Mo'Nique - Precious
Alternative choice: None.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ever since the Cannes win, shown above, nothing has stopped Christoph Waltz from steamrolling his way through the awards in the same fashion as Mo'Nique and winning his Oscar. Just imagine how good his speech is going to be — every speech he's given since then can only be assumed as all his rejected ideas for his Oscar speech. He's got something big planned, I can feel it.
My prediction: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Alternative choice: None.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Uh...bear with me, here. Precursors all point to Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side, but I just don't sense that happening. There seemed to have been a minor backlash of sorts that may have harmed her chances in such an open category. Bullock coming in so late in the season was both a blessing and a curse for her, but easy come easy go. No poll of Oscar voter seems to support the notion that she will win other than her SAG win voted upon by a great deal more of voters than are actually in the acting branch of the Academy. Some would suggest that with Mulligan's BAFTA support, the most she could get out of it is splitting the newcomer vote with Gabby Sidibe. But, assuming Helen Mirren is not a candidate, I feel like the hopes of Meryl Streep's third Oscar guiding her awards season up to that point was let go after her SAG loss. Her BAFTA loss kind of just made her a non-competitor altogether. But there isn't exactly British passion for An Education, only garnering three nominations from the Oscars and no other BAFTA wins aside from her. I feel like Sidibe is not only the most visible of the candidates — making the rounds on every single talk show making every single person possible fall in love with her — but is also in the film that easily has the most support out of the nominees. People point to The Blind Side's Picture nomination as proof-positive that Bullock has this in the bag. What they neglect to mention is that that's The Blind Side's only other nomination, while Precious has hit every single sweet spot needed to be a major Picture contender. Call it...the gut feeling I was referring to earlier on, and feel free to ignore it and blame it on my own bias feeling as if she's the only correct answer for this category, but I just can't feel a mood in Bullock's favor. There's a smell of upset in the air, people want it somewhere, and voters like Quentin Tarantino have made it known in the past that they're heavily considering voting for someone like Gabby. Polls show split votes across the spectrum, small pools of voters chosen do not show passionate support for Bullock. I feel, when all is said and done, thinking with my head, heart, and stomach, that Sidibe is the one who will rise above all of this.
My prediction: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Alternative choice: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side (very safe choice)
Best Actor in a Leading Role
The verdict is in: Jeff Bridges deserves an Oscar for his career, and Crazy Heart is the film he'll deserve it for.
My prediction: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Alternative choice: Colin Firth - A Single Man (safe choice in my dreams)
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow doesn't want to win just because she's a woman. But she doesn't have to worry about that — she's not winning just because she's a woman. That just makes her a lock to win it.
Who's really going to choose her disliked ex-husband over her? Cameron and Tarantino both even said they're voting for her, with Daniels and Reitman expressing that she richly deserves it.
My prediction: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Alternative choice: None.
Best Picture
And, alas. Here we are. The Hurt Locker has swept the major critics prize of NY, LA and NSFC. It got the Broadcast Film Critic's Choice Awards. It got the BAFTA prize. Yet, people here seem to be feeling an Avatar upset nigh, due to the scandal with the producer and military disapproval. Yes, yes. But did Slumdog lose last year after accusations of child exploitation? Those seem a lot more serious. The answer, of course, was no. Slumdog Millionaire only lost in one category, Sound Editing. It did just fine. Avatar frankly just does not have the numbers to win. In a preferential ballot, those who didn't like it REALLY didn't like it enough to have it rise in the latter rounds of voting. It has guild prizes from the Visual Effects and Sound Editing branches, including split votes from Art Directors. This is who will vote for it. Writers didn't take too kindly, actors don't trust motion capture technology, and it lost the prizes from directors and producers. It depended on the tech branch on even there did it not even manage a double digit nomination count — tying with The Hurt Locker in nominations. And that film is virtually opposite in size and scope. I just do not see it happening. A Basterds upset? Well, Harvey Weinstein sees it. But he always sees it for his film. Inglourious Basterds can very certainly benefit from preferential voting, as there seems to be an odd consensus on the quality of that film. But, it does have its detractors. It's not expected to nab many tech wins. Tarantino's screenplay and Waltz's monumental performance will be rewarded as the film's prizes.
My prediction: The Hurt Locker
Alternative choice: Inglourious Basterds (wildcard)
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (AC: Inglourious Basterds)
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart (AC: Colin Firth - A Single Man)
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious (AC: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo'Nique - Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (AC: The Hurt Locker)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (AC: District 9)
Best Cinematography: The White Ribbon (AC: The Hurt Locker)
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker (AC: Inglourious Basterds)
Best Art Direction: Avatar (AC: Sherlock Holmes)
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Makeup: Star Trek (AC: Il Divo)
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker (AC: Avatar)
Best Sound Editing: Avatar (AC: The Hurt Locker)
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" - Crazy Heart
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: The Secret of Her Eyes - Argentina (AC: The White Ribbon - Germany)
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove (AC: Food, Inc.)
Best Documentary, Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (AC: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province)
Best Short, Animated: A Matter of Loaf and Death (AC: Logorama)
Best Short, Live Action: The Door (AC: The New Tenants)
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