MOB: The Gotham Awards Kick-off the Awards Season

The Gothams are a big enough name on the indie circuit to provide a small alternative to the Independent Spirit Awards (announcing nominees tomorrow), but often aren't taken with quite the seriousness that a group like the NYFCC or the NBR, but seemed to lend a smart and smooth amount of influence to start off the '11 awards race tonight. The Gotham Awards became the first with a fancy awards show this year and started off an already surely unpredictable year with many a surprise, including two seeming heavyweights in The Descendants and Martha Marcy May Marlene, both going into the night with the most nominations, pulling a Gangs of New York and a Color Purple, respectively. They went him with no awards. Indeed, Dee Rees took Breakthrough Director away from Sean Durkin while Felicity Jones bitchslapped Elizabeth Olsen and Shailene Woodley both to the Breakthrough Actor prize for Like Crazy (not sure what can exactly account for that preference, myself).

The lovable little film Beginners, highly recommended, got about as big a boost as an award like this could offer a tiny independent underdog heading into the awards season with its best shot at Oscar in Christopher Plummer accepting the Best Ensemble prize (over films like The Descendants and Margin Call) with humor and grace. Natalie Portman discussed a 2.5 hour conversation the jury had before compromising to also give the tiny film the coveted Best Feature prize tied with the very big Tree of Life.

The boost this lends The Tree of Life is significant, on first glance. It's just another expectation it defied, after taking home the Palme D'Or, winning the International FIRPRESCI prize earlier this year and earlier this week topping the Sight & Sound poll of 100 critics in a landslide victory. The amount to which this can became a major player on the critics circuit depends on how well it does tomorrow, particularly in the New York critics, but I suspect it shan't do too bad considering how much of the Circle's voting body are admirers of Malick's. I'd bet on a Best Director win, at least (although I'm predicting Picture as well). Read more!

MOB: New York Film Critics preview

The New York Film Critics Circle's decision this year to leapfrog over all other precursor awards this year has decidedly backfired as they've proven entirely incapable of seeing all the possible options, including who knows how many hidden gems wanting desperately to bubble over the surface. Either way, they've delayed their voting to Tuesday morning, which will be announced via their twitter page, so that they can see David Fincher's Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. They will not be able to catch Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which certain members will humbly suggest has to do with that film's own level of quality. I think most people realize that is ludicrous.

But what can win? Last year you had options like eventual champ The Social Network at a staggering 96 on metacritic with Toy Story 3 also well into the 90s (and at a higher percentage of positive reviews on rottentomatoes). This year mainstream cinema has not been able to break 87 on metacritic, currently in a three-way tie between Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. II, Moneyball and latest entry The Artist. This could bode well for The Artist since the other two seem to be a bit light for critics' favor, although most of the reviews I can see on the aggregate site seem to be Los Angeles critics for whom the film looks better suited to anyways. And then of course if Dragon Tattoo delivers as the final film they see before voting that could very well lead to a bandwagon (but would they want to have another Fincher film sweep two years in a row?). In a second tier of 85 scores you have Martin Scorsese's Hugo, Mike Nichols' Take Shelter and Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, which just recently won the top spot on Sight & Sound Magazine's 2011 film poll of 100 critics. The Social Network being the first American film in a long time to win that prize last year boded well for its own critical success, and though The Tree of Life is inarguably more divisive it still did win the Palme D'Or after an initial stammering of boos upon its premiere and even won the main FIRPRESCI prize of critics polled this year, which means it just does fare very well among groups of critics in terms of finding consensus in a year like this.
Other options obviously include the likes of The Descendants, though LA has always been much more of the Payne-fanboy type than the New York critics. If they want to go super-inspired and outre they could easily also go for A Separation, the best film of the year for my money and runner-up at the Sight & Sound poll (and the likely annointed ones at least among the foreign film scene this year).

Possibilities:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. II
Hugo
Moneyball
Shame
Take Shelter
The Tree of Life
We Need To Talk About Kevin

My prediction: The Tree of Life (runner-up: The Descendants)

Goldderby's poll of pundits has them picking The Descendants but Jean Dujardin still besting Clooney. But I think one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year will end up being Steve McQueen's Shame (evidenced by a FIRPRESCI prize of its own at Venice) which is driven by a lead performance by Michael Fassbender, still primed in a perfect position between foreign indie critics fave and bonafide film star. But for each of these three actors it could prove to be a consolation prize in well-liked films (not to even mention a possibility to double-mention Brad Pitt for the well-reviewed Moneyball and The Tree of Life).

Possibilities:
George Clooney, The Descendants/The Ides of March
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love/Drive/The Ides of March
Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method/Jane Eyre/Shame/X-Men First Class
Woody Harrelson, Rampart
Hunter McCracken, The Tree of Life
Peyman Moaadi, A Separation
Brad Pitt, Moneyball/The Tree of Life
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
My prediction: Michael Fassbender, Shame (runner-up: Jean Dujardin)

Best Actress is such a peculiar category because many of the perceived frontrunners for Oscar glory are not seen as being in critically acclaimed films (Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Glenn Close and even leading contender Viola Davis herself). But it's not like there aren't great options to choose from actually great films, and then of course there's the possibility they do go for one of these other, by all measures praised, performances in weaker films, or even a sight unseen like Rooney Mara (I wouldn't count TGWTDT out for anything considering it'll be the one freshest on their minds and is likely to leave an imprint on their mind, judging from the preview materials we've seen). They've gone for veterans in the past like Meryl Streep in 2009 or, less explicably, Annette Bening last year. That could bode very well for either Meryl Streep or overdue Glenn Close. But there are also ingenues this year like Elizabeth Olsen, Felicity Jones and Rooney Mara. Cannes queens Tilda Swinton and Kirsten Dunst are in the running for a critics' darling position themselves that might prove crucial in their path to a coveted Oscar nomination alongside names like Olivia Colman or even praised performances last year just released this year like Juliette Binoche in Certified Copy or the fantastic Jeong-hee Yoon for Poetry (though LA and NSFC are more likely to reward foreign-language performances in general).

Possibilities:
Juliette Binoche, Certified Copy
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, Meek's Cutoff/My Week With Marilyn
My prediction: Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin (runner-up: Michelle Williams)

The supporting categories could be a place to conceivably go with Oscar prognostication since New York has historically always been closer aligned to Oscar success than any other critics' group. If Christopher Plummer is the frontrunner in Supporting Actor, then maybe he'll win Best Supporting Actor. He certainly won't see Max Von Sydow as competition. But sometimes these critics like to go a little rougher around the edges, and I think a veteran alternative like Albert Brooks in the gritty Drive provides them a good opportunity at rewarding that otherwise well-reviewed film (though not the most kindly from NY critics in general) and a choice that might be seen as slightly fresher even though he's deep in the hunt for Oscar. But as far as I can tell those are the two options it really comes down to.

Possibilities:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Robert Forster, The Descendants
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Christopher Plummer, Beginners/The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
My prediction: Albert Brooks, Drive (runner-up: Christopher Plummer)

Just like Plummer is slated to sweep his category, though he might not start here, another actress who looks "sweepy" seems to be Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus, getting Oscar predictions as soon as last January when the film was screened at the Berlin Film Festival. She lost out on the festival prize for Actress (for which I presume she was a frontrunner) to the female ensemble of A Separation, about which I'm not complaining. If they go, as they often do, for prizes recognizing multiple performances than the award is almost sealed for breakthrough (in every sense of the word) actress Jessica Chastain, between Take Shelter, The Tree of Life, The Help and The Debt has established a critically acclaimed, artistically diverse, and generally financially successful career this past year alone. Other contenders in this category from critically acclaimed selections include the radiant Carey Mulligan in Shame, Berenice Bejo in The Artist, and Shailene Woodley in The Descendants.

Possibilities:
The female ensemble of A Separation (heh)
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, Coriolanus/The Debt/The Help/Take Shelter/The Tree of Life
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Helen McCrory, Hugo
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Drive/Shame
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Kate Winslet, Carnage
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
My prediction: Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life, et all (runner-up: Vanessa Redgrave)

For best director the slate of options should be similar to the contenders for Best Film, although a bigger name and more craft-oriented director like Kathryn Bigelow and David Fincher are more likely than lesser named or more subdued directors like Michael Hazanavicius or Alexander Payne. That said, splits happened here a lot more often than not (and especially more than at the Oscars) and it almost seems as if they're overdue for one.

Possibilities:
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Lynne Ramsay, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Apichatpong Weerasethakul, Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
My prediction: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life (runner-up: Michel Hazanavicius) Read more!

MOB: Calm Before the Storm

If you're not nearly as obsessed with awards season and Oscar politicking as I am but are still curious as to how the process might work, might I recommend you start with this season? Last year the critics decided in lockstep with The Social Network before every industry award went in lockstep with The King's Speech. The Oscar winning fates of last year's winners such as Colin Firth, Christian Bale and Natalie Portman seemed like foregone conclusions as soon as their films debuted (while Melissa Leo was the frontrunner in her respective category).
Next week we have what should be every distributor, campaigner, and prospective awards candidates taking in their final breaths before jumping into the depths of awards season starting with the New York Film Critics, much earlier than usual, and the National Board of Review within days of each other. From then on until the holiday season, where there's a nice breather until the industry awards, will be a deluge of obscure regional critics prizes doled out and pages worth of nomination lists.

And it's not like this year hasn't already been fraught with tension and suspense. After the surprising announcement of bringing Brett Ratner on to produce the Oscar telecast itself for next year with Eddie Murphy as its host brought with it some house cleaning among writers, PR people and other producers of the show under his watch until it turned out he was a douchebag sullying the name of the Academy and had to step down, after which Eddie Murphy followed suit. This is the year that the Academy announced that not only would there not be a set number of Best Picture nominees for the first time ever, but when they announce them it will be in completely random non-alphabetical order so you'll have really no way of knowing for sure what was coming next. Their recent shortlist of potential Documentary Feature nominees included many more high profile snubs and shockers than usual (no mentions of The Interrupters, Senna, Page One, Nostalgia for the Light, Into the Abyss or others to be seen).
Not to mention their current list of Animated submissions for the year, currently standing at a number high enough to reach the 5-nominee threshold needed for the category, could dwindle down to 3 nominees if they rule motion-capture films like The Adventures of Tin Tin or Happy Feet 2 ineligible (remains to be seen though most feel like they will).

And that's not even getting to the potential nominees. There is little critical consensus out there, with the highest metacritic rating for wide releases belonging to Moneyball and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. II (slight advantage to the latter), though The Descendants is looking pretty good on nearly the same tier as The Tree of Life. You can have star studded acting lineups of what you can call Hollywood's 1% that can include Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, Glenn Close, Leonardo DiCaprio, Kirsten Dunst, Michael Fassbender, Ryan Gosling, Carey Mulligan, Brad Pitt, Meryl Streep , Charlize Theron, and Michelle Williams, among others. Some of those are in a club of lower profile indie fare alongside the likes of Démian Bichir, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Elizabeth Olsen, Michael Shannon, and Tilda Swinton.

It's likely not going to break down this specifically, but I can foresee scenarios where very major precursor more or less goes with a different film or performance. Here are some simulations: We'll start with the first two, New York critics and National Board of Review

New York Film Critics Circle
Best Film: The Tree of Life
Best Director: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball and The Tree of Life
Best Actress: Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks, Drive
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain, The Help and Take Shelter and The Tree of Life et all.

National Board of Review
Best Film: The Artist
Best Director: David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants and The Ides of March tied with Brad Pitt, Moneyball and The Tree of Life
Best Actress: Michelle Williams, Meek's Cutoff and My Week With Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help

And then we can go ahead and fill in some blanks for the other two major film critics.

Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Best Film: The Descendants
Best Director: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress: Jeong-hee Yoon, Poetry
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

National Society of Film Critics
Best Film: A Separation
Best Director: Steve McQueen, Shame
Best Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Best Actress: Juliette Binoche, Certified Copy
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Best Supporting Actress: Carey Mulligan, Shame

So you start to see a semblance of consensus at some point, since there's a lot of overlapping voters and tastes within these groups. But let's begin to get on with the industry awards.

Broadcast Film Critics Awards (BFCA)
Best Picture: The Descendants
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

Golden Globes
Best Picture, Drama: War Horse
Best Picture, Comedy/Musical: The Artist
Best Director: Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Best Lead Actor, Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Best Lead Actress, Drama: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Lead Actor, Comedy/Musical: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Lead Actress, Comedy/Musical: Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor: Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Screen Actors Guild
Ensemble Cast: The Help
Best Actor: Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March (stranger things have happened)
Best Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Best Supporting Actor: Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Best Supporting Actress: Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

BAFTA Awards
Best Film: The Artist
Best British Film: Senna
Best Foreign Film: The Skin I Live In
Best Director: Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Best Supporting Actress: Berenice Bejo, The Artist

With this kind of potential data out there, you can pronounce frontrunners and feel out the mood for the time but it won't be nearly as statistically easy to pick out winners as it has been the past few years, and I do think we should buckle ourselves down for a thrilling season of twists, turns, shocks and snubs. Read more!

MOB: The Artist — Best Picture Frontrunner

I got the opportunity to watch The Artist at the New York Film Festival, but never got the opportunity to write about it. It's a film of some lightness but it's incredibly lovely; the film draws you into its concept soon enough and, in spite of occasionally dipping into the more melodramatic and maudlin near the climax of the film, the very end goes off on a booming and spirit lifting note that has a full theater cheering at the end. I saw it among cinephiles and average moviegoers alike and the opinions were pretty much the same, and judging from the critical reaction it looks like it ticks off boxes for all relevant camps.

As far as the Oscar race goes, there appear to be three films that can conceivably win the top prize at this point — Alexander Payne's Clooney led The Descendants, Spielberg's War Horse and this. Sure, Michel Hazanavicius doesn't quite have the starpower of Spielberg's name nor does lead actor Jean Dujardin carry the crowd recognition of George Clooney. That said, anytime Dujardin's glowing smile isn't on screen, you wish it was. And we see last year with Tom Hooper beating someone at career peak like David Fincher last year that directorial star power doesn't quite go all the way every time. At this point, War Horse is more of a wildcard than anything. Spielberg this year has gotten off to a fine note getting a decent reaction for The Adventures of Tin Tin which was seen as being a lot riskier in reception than the film based upon the most recent Tony winner for Best Play.

The problem with Payne is that his films don't really hold up. Sideways positively swept the critics awards in 2004 and he may find similar passion among them this year, but in the general populace his films don't exactly hold up. Sideways loses impact upon repeated viewings while something like About Schmidt or Election are praised for little else than their respective central performances. Payne also had won an Oscar for the screenplay for Sideways and does seem to be perceived as more of a writer than a director, and George Clooney had been given his own Oscar not even that long ago while going up against Oscarless actors of similar star status like Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt. Most damning for the film is the fact that, as far as the distinction vis à vis The Artist goes is that people like The Descendants...people love The Artist.

This much was evidenced by its audience win at the Hamptons Film Festival, among a few other places, since Hamptons is where many Academy members can be found trying to catch up on this year's crop of films. You might remember last year, another Harvey Weinstein vehicle, The King's Speech took that prize. The Artist missed out on the Toronto audience award that jumpstarted The King's Speech's campaign, but it has more going for it than The King's Speech, that being that it simply fits better within the framework of the more recent winners. Whether its win was balked or not by the majority of cinephilic communities, The King's Speech still may well have been the third best reviewed film nominated last year behind The Social Network and Toy Story 3, and Colin Firth had still managed to take 2 out of 3 of the central critics groups' awards; The Artist will likely inspire even more critical adulation. It has that distinguishable feature that almost certainly makes it stand out, being silent and black and white, that reminds me of Slumdog Millionaire's ascent into Best Picturedom. And while the more dramatic elements of the story remind older voters of the most traditionally pleasurable of Hollywood themes and entertainment, the story of a Hollywood star transitioning to major changes in the film industry could not be better timed with the onset of actors' fears of motion capture performance and 3D sales dominating the new industry business model. Read more!

MOB: Handicapping the Best Actress race so far.

The start of the Venice Film Festival has been said to be the unofficial kickoff point to this year's Oscar race, and if that's the case we can safely say that it's done so with more of a whimper than a bang. Major contenders in The Ides of March, A Dangerous Method, and Carnage has thus far left critics cold and largely unimpressed. Telluride has made some critics and bloggers early fans of Alexander Payne's The Descendants, although, sans Clooney's performance, I don't think it's going to find the same success that Sideways did in 2004 (different times, different tastes, different trends, etc.).

The Lead Actress race, to me, always looked like the most interesting race of the big 8 categories this early in the year even before the major festival kickoffs. Tilda Swinton had already squared off against Kirsten Dunst at Cannes and seemed to lose that round, but for seemingly political means. Keira Knightley looked to fit the mold of a standard winner in the category for A Dangerous Method but if you don't want to describe the response to that as divisive, you can even bill the critical consensus as poor. Glenn Close's passion piece Albert Nobbs premiered at Telluride last night, and received good enough reviews for her performance to play a role in this year's race despite a tepid reception for the film itself.

Glenn Close has a very compelling narrative of an overdue veteran close to tying for the least successful female performer in Oscar history as she shoots for her sixth nomination (none since the 80s). However, like I said, a standard winner in this category looks more like Keira Knightley than it does Glenn Close. Helen Mirren was even a few years younger when she won for playing Queen Elizabeth II and she had been the sweepingest actress in film awards history in a Best Picture nominee. In fact, she'd be the oldest winner since Jessica Tandy for Best Picture winner Driving Miss Daisy. Before her, Shirley MacLaine in Best Picture winner Terms of Endearment. Katharine Hepburn won her fourth and last Oscar for Best Picture nominated On Golden Pond. Even Geraldine Page's film was nominated for a screenplay Oscar. Judging from the response to Albert Nobbs, I don't think Glenn Close will have trouble being nominated. At all. She knows how to work a room and has found success on the stage and TV screen ever since her film career fizzled out shortly after her fifth Oscar nomination. I think she's going to have to fight hard for a win, though.

I would expect a similar response to come from Meryl Streep's film about the life of Margaret Thatcher. Meryl Streep has lost more times consecutively since her last win for Sophie's Choice than the entirety of Glenn Close's career, but Close being Oscar-less means that she beats out Streep for the veteran card. I still believe it's hard not to predict Streep at this point, although the chances for a win are very slim.

Meanwhile, The Help looks slated to top the box office for the third weekend in a row, a feat unmatched by any film this year. Not Transformers, not Pirates, not Harry Potter, not Captain America. Granted, it had little competition in this generally sluggish period of the year for film business but it still outperforms expectations week after week by astronomical numbers, and that heartwarming success story combined with the "important" seeming subject matter for the film itself and the enthusiastic word of mouth on it from regular moviegoers and ecstatic screening-viewing Academy members as well makes Viola Davis a safe bet as well, as Disney looks to campaign for her in this category. She will be the only black actress to be nominated in the lead category since Halle Berry became the first one to win in a decade ago, and the only black actress besides Whoopi Goldberg to have more than one nomination at all. With her film clearly beloved, she stands a good chance at depriving Glenn Close at her long sought after win.

With just two slots left, recent Academy trends have shown kindness to recognizing young ingenues for breakout performances. Consider Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone or Carey Mulligan for An Education. These aren't performances that win, generally, but there's a spot for them. I think there are two actresses vying for that spot. Mulligan and Lawrence both won the same prize at the Sundance Film Festival as Felicity Jones did for Like Crazy, an independent handheld relationship drama that looks to be in the same vein as last year's best American film Blue Valentine (which brought actress Michelle Williams a nomination). The prize at Sundance puts her at good company and in good line for precedent, but the one who had truly stolen the show and the spotlight from media attention that year was Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene in a cerebral role that looks comparable to Natalie Portman's winning performance last year for Black Swan. The film itself seems to get more critical notice than big Sundance winner Like Crazy as well, and I think she will continue to steal headlines if nothing else than for the novelty of her being the younger and probably more talented sister to none other than Mary Kate and Ashley. They are both in contention but I'd say there's only space for one between the two of them, and I'd venture to guess that the attention seeking nature of Olsen's role and her very name itself is what could take her over Jones.

That leaves but one slot left. As I said, Tilda Swinton couldn't manage to nab the Cannes prize for Best Actress despite seeming to be a festival sweetheart and easily garnering the best reviews among actresses there. That being said, this isn't Cannes, and the Academy doesn't have nearly a faithful track record to Von Trier films and performances as they. Kirsten Dunst's performance appears to be rather subdued, and only in about the first half of the film before Charlotte Gainsbourgh takes over (whom many prefer over Dunst). Dunst has been a child actress working for a while, like Natalie Portman last year, but her work has not necessarily been taken seriously enough yet despite doing some good work, particularly last year with All Good Things. That said, this looks to be another volume in her independent collecting of street cred before I believe she can truly be a contender.

Tilda, on the other hand, has already garnered major street credit in the industry since her first win for Michael Clayton. That was for a major Best Picture contender anchored by George Clooney in a category open enough to give the film a compensatory prize, but she's been continuing to challenge and prove herself time and time again since then as many feel she was owed nominations for both Julia and I Am Love in some of the proceeding years. She's been honored with nominations at the Golden Globes long before anyone in the Academy paid attention to her, and Oscar bloggers who vote for the Broadcast Film Critics Awards seem to be fans of We Need To Talk About Kevin. Not to mention the British contingent of voters who were arguably the deciding factor in her Oscar win for Clayton, who admire Swinton a great deal. These are major precursors that could truly get the momentum rolling on putting her in that final slot. Campaigning veteran Cynthia Swartz, famously spearheading successful Miramax campaigns in the 90s for winners like The English Patient and Shakespeare in Love into the 2000s with nominees like Chocolat and Finding Neverland before leaving Weinstein with a dry spell until last year's triumph with The King's Speech. In between she looked over the publicity of winners like No Country for Old Men and The Hurt Locker as well as last year's likely runner-up in The Social Network, looks after Venice's trashing to have W.E. off her plate enough to focus on the campaign for Swinton on behalf of Oscilloscope. It's a showy role, not played over the top, in bold material that I think the acting branch will appreciate the level of difficulty of. I'd say she has that fifth slot set.

If enough people see Tyrannosaur, especially if Brits get behind otherwise comedic character actress Olivia Colman's monumental performance in her role, I would highly suggest you watch out for her as a significant darkhorse player. I myself categorize her in Supporting but I'm in the minority. If they push her, I assume they'll push her lead.

Rankings:
1. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
3. Viola Davis, The Help
4. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
5. Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin

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6. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
7. Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur
8. Jodie Foster, Carnage
9. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
10. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia Read more!

MOB: NOW can we talk about Harry Potter's Oscar prospects?

Early signs indicate that it should have no problem being the single highest grossing film of the year, if not the very definitive film event of the year (financially). Critically, it's climbed to almost unanimous praise and looks pretty easily to be the best reviewed film of the Summer, if not the entire year, even not just restricting it to major releases. Read more!

BAFTA Awards

Potentially the most significant of awards precursors to the Oscars is coming this upcoming Sunday, when the British Academy of Film and Television Awards are handed out. Due to differences in voting procedures the results don't necessarily align 100% with the actual Academy's itself, but there is the largest overlap of voters from any body and could often be indicative of larger voting trends at play which can prove to be a deciding factor in an open race.

In this case, there isn't all that much excitement to be had. It's clear that The King's Speech is even more of a phenomenon in the UK than it is in this country, and that's saying something considering its trifecta sweep of the guilds. But a sweep here isn't necessarily so safe — all it means is that Best Film is perhaps the least competitive category of the bunch.

BEST FILM:
Nominees:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: Nothing else, really.
Should Win: Only in my humble opinion, The Social Network. But it doesn't stand a chance in hell here, making very little splash at the box office and with very few nominations even compared to the likes of fellow competitors Inception and Black Swan which will probably pull ahead of it.

People often misconstrue this for meaning that the category for Best British Film — in which The King's Speech is also nominated — is also locked up. After all, how can it be the best film if it's not the best British film? Well, this category is voted upon by a separate jury that has its own unique tastes; often for the quirky and independent. Never has a British film that won Best Film also win for this category — it's almost as if they intentionally avoid it. Slumdog Millionaire lost it. The Queen lost it. Atonement lost it. It just doesn't happen.

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Another Year
Four Lions
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham

Will Win: Four Lions fits the prototypical winner in this category to a T, more or less.
Could and Should Win: It would be lovely to see Another Year win, here, although I haven't seen the supposedly hilarious Four Lions.

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Nominees:
The Arbor
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Four Lions
Monsters
Skeleton

Will Win: My brain says The Arbor, my heart says semi-sensation Monsters.
Should Win: I haven't seen most of the contenders, here (should be getting to The Arbor pretty soon), but it's always an interesting prospect to give Banksy (Exit Through the Gift Shop) an award.

DIRECTOR:
Nominees:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network

Will Win: Even barring wishful thinking, this category often splits because it's just those in the directors' branch voting for this. They often go with the more accomplished auteur, in which David Fincher clearly fits the bill for The Social Network. But I guess you can never count Tom Hooper out.
Could Win: As I said, Tom Hooper, but don't count out accomplished Brit Christopher Nolan, either!
Should Win: I would love to see David Fincher take this.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Will Win: David Seidler's got this one sewn up for The King's Speech
Could Win: WGA winner Inception
Should Win: Another Year, but the BAFTA writers don't seem as enamored with Leigh's writing process as the AMPAS writing branch to nominate it.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
127 Hours
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Will Win: No matter what you think of The Social Network, it's difficult difficult lemon difficult to deny Aaron Sorkin of this prize for his work.
Could Win: True Grit is the only other Best Film nominee here, but evidently the Brits really love Dragon Tattoo.
Should Win: I would actually vote for Toy Story 3, here. But I'd still feel very bad for Aaron Sorkin if he lost.

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Nominees:
Biutiful
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
I Am Love
Of Gods and Men
The Secret In Their Eyes

Will Win: I just have a hankering that they would respond really well to Biutiful
Could Win: Any of them, really. Dragon Tattoo is a European cultural phenomenon, Tilda Swinton's in I Am Love, Of Gods and Men is French and the only nationality the Brits love more than themselves is the French, and The Secret In Their Eyes is thoroughly entertaining.
Should Win: These nominees kind of blow.

ANIMATED FILM:
Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

Will Win: Toy Story 3
Could Win: Uhh, I guess Annie sweeper How To Train Your Dragon
Should Win: If it were up to me, I would make it a tie between Toy Story 3 and write-in candidate (and inexplicably left off) The Illusionist.

Funny how Leading Actor seemed to match up with the Academy lineup 5/5. Last season, the BAFTA provided a rare source of inspiration by rewarding Colin Firth's work in A Single Man — quite frankly one of the best performances ever Oscar nominated in this category (although he lost out most of the season to Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart).

LEADING ACTOR:
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Will Win: Colin Firth seems slated for an easy back-to-back win.
Could Win: Javier Bardem's deeply affecting performance in a foreign language, which the BAFTAs have historically been kinder to.
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, for the Shakespearean cadence with which he delivered his deeply Sorkinian dialogue.

With a Bening upset at this week's London Film Critics Awards, people are thinking of a possible Bening upset in the Leading Actress category over Natalie Portman. Can it really happen?

LEADING ACTRESS:
Nominees:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Will Win and Should Win: You bet against Natalie Portman and her film's 12 nominations at your own risk.
Could Win: I actually think Bening's co-star sharing this category with her is a bit of a deathwish for Bening's chances, for a vocal group of voters who prefer Moore will almost surely take votes away from her. I'd say Steinfeld might actually be second in line.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Nominees:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Pete Postlethwaite, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Will Win: Clearly it's a race between Welsh fave Bale and heart of BP fave Rush. Considering the Melissa Leo snub, which I think has less to do with Leo's name recognition than a lack of enthusiasm for The Fighter itself (if Amy Adams and Christian Bale were only nominated by name recognition, that's not saying much good for the film), and a lot of people genuinely just not knowing that Bale is, in fact, British (to his credit!), I'm gonna take the odds on Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech the way he won for Shakespeare in Love over a decade ago.
Could and Should Win: I already mentioned Christian Bale, but if it's really that close of a race and they split I think former BAFTA winner and hometown darling Andrew Garfield will win his 3rd hometown prize for his performance in The Social Network. But I won't get my hopes up.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Nominees:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Will and Should Win: I get the sense that filling the void for the snub of Melissa Leo and likely runner-up Hailee Steinfeld promoted to lead, that Lesley Manville — my favorite performance of the year — wins the same way that Melissa Leo's been winning American prizes. Older but less recognized but dependable country character actress in an incredibly flashy and showy role. Something tells me if she made it far enough for a top five mention in a category she could have otherwise split votes for herself from in Round I and then making it to Round II's shortlist that she has enough strength to take the win.
Could Win: Helena Bonham Carter could very well coattail this thing to an Oscar, a road to which this would be a crucial prize to win.

ORIGINAL MUSIC:
Nominees:
AR Rahman, 127 Hours
Danny Elfman, Alice in Wonderland
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech

Will Win: Musicians voting here deeply admire Desplat, and the BAFTA voting public at large loves The King's Speech. Looks to me like a match made in heaven.
Could Win: Musicians are also rather obsessed with AR Rahman, and particularly his score for 127 Hours. The category also includes the song he was Oscar nominated for this year, which BAFTA doesn't have a separate category for.
Should Win: John Powell's soaring melodies for How To Train Your Dragon.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will and Should Win: The BAFTA history of this category suggests more artistic and darker choices, of which I think Black Swan fits best.
Could Win: Oscar favorite True Grit, or just The King's Speech if it sweeps.

EDITING:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Will and Should Win: I honestly have no idea, but this is more or less The Social Network's only tech nomination and one I can see Editors appreciating enough to give it a win. Something tells me that's off, though.
Could Win: Oscar snubbed Inception.

PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will Win: Seems too easy to not give to The King's Speech
Could Win: Production designers themselves might very much admire the sets of Inception or go with the easy bait of Alice in Wonderland.
Should Win: For my money, True Grit.

COSTUME DESIGN:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit

Will Win: Honestly I can't think of a reason not to just throw this one at The King's Speech.
Could and Should Win: Made in Dagenham

SOUND:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will Win: Looks like Inception.
Could Win: I can't see anything else winning.
Should Win: Black Swan would be cool, but honestly anything other than The King's Speech would be deserving, here.

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Toy Story 3

Will and Should Win: Inception. Signed, sealed and delivered.

Makeup and Hair:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham

Will Win: I don't even know. I guess Alice in Wonderland?
Could and Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1

RISING STAR AWARD:
Nominees:
Gemma Arterton
Tom Hardy
Andrew Garfield
Aaron Johnson
Emma Stone

Will Win: Actors from public phenomena tend to fare best here, as Kristen Stewart won last year with the help of Twihards. Inception's Tom Hardy should fare well, here.
Could Win: Gemma Arterton's a hottie.
Should Win: The man who's already beat Tom Hardy for a BAFTA once before, and has undoubtedly had a better year, Andrew Garfield. Read more!

Oscar nominations

There is nothing left to look for between now and Tuesday when Oscar nominations will be released. The Globes have set frontrunners, the BAFTA have given a barometer to how potentially half of the Academy's acting branch will have voted. I swear, this will get back to a regular film review blog soon, but, y'know, 'tis the season to be jolly or whatnot. Here are my final, yes, final, predictions for Oscar nominations.

Let's start slow. You know. Not giving all my cards out at once kinda thing. Here are some categories people forget about — the shorts. But let's...not really count these in my overall tally, unless I turn out to be really correct. Learning curve!

Live Action Short
Ana's Playground
God of Love
Little Children, Big Words
Na Wewe
The Six Dollar Fifty Man

Admittedly, I haven't seen any of these besides God of Love and interviewing director Luke Matheny. But there are some factors you can look at to predict these kinds of categories. For instance, in Matheny's case, he's already been shown a strong contingent of support from the sorts of industry insiders who will be packed into the room screening these movies and then deciding their votes on the spot. His film won the Student Academy Award this past year and won top prize at the Angelus Film Festival, which has a jury of insiders across a spectrum of entertainment industries. The other ones either seem socially conscious or generally tug at the heartstrings. Ana's Playground and Na Wewe take place in war torn areas of the world while both and Little Children, Big Words and The Six Dollar Fifty Man additionally center their narratives around children. And I mean, that's always nice. Right?

Animated Short
The Cow Who Wanted To Be a Hamburger
Coyote Falls
Day & Night
Let's Pollute
The Silence Beneath the Bark

Pixar's shorts introducing their blockbuster successes aren't usually assured nominations, here, but they're the ones that usually have the most popular momentum going for them since they obviously would be the most seen of the nominees (you probably remember Day & Night having introduced Toy Story 3). I'm predicting The Cow Who Wanted To Be a Hamburger almost solely for Bill Plympton — partially because I'm personally rooting for him, and partially because he just happens to be an icon in the animation industry at this moment with a lot of momentum being shortlisted in both this category and the Animated Feature category. This at least shows love for him as an industry figure, I reckon, and there's no way his feature film can make it into a competitive field of just 3 nominees. So here I have him, even though the style seems completely bizarre. Let's Pollute just seems like a fun little diddy with semi socially conscious messages behind it and The Silence Beneath the Bark is said to be entirely memorable.

Documentary Short
Born Sweet
Living for 32
Killing in the Name
Strangers No More
The Warriors of Qiugang

Complete guesswork. No harm, no foul — right?

Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Giftshop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman

We move back into feature films, where this category seems a bit more tangible and familiar. But the Documentary voting branch often likes to throw curveballs, and in such a banner year for the category who knows what kind of films would make it in. The unorthodox Exit Through the Gift Shop might be the most rewarded so far of the season, and while before I would not have pegged it for being up the alley of this particular branch's tastes I figure it being shortlisted means they liked it just fine. Inside Job is a bit of a festival favorite, and much more in this branch's liberal preferences than the more mainstream Waiting for Superman, although the film has a fantastic marketing team behind it and one of the best PR campaigns we've seen this season. Call Gasland a hunch. I'm still displeased that Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work and The Oath were not shortlisted, though.

Best Foreign Language Film
Canada - Incendies
France - Of Gods and Men
Iraq - Sons of Babylon
South Africa - Life, Above All
Turkey - Bal

Perpetually the most perplexing and controversial category in this entire awards, it's not always the high profile arthouse flicks that make it in. It's a completely unique system with a very defined set of voters, whose tastes are usually distinguishable...after they've snubbed the films everyone expected to get in. The only entry I've seen of these predictions is France's, which I'm not the biggest fan of. But France is a perennial favorite, with the film as visually striking but as narratively slow as might be their cup of tea, and new rules skewing influence to festival hits almost assures this a nomination. Sons of Babylon is supposedly exactly the kind of father/son roadtrip movie that could make that film a frontrunner to win this year, while Roger Ebert — who tends to be an accurate barometer of traditional Academy sensibilities — highly praised South Africa's entry Life, Above All. Turkey's Bal, or Honey, seems to have that child-focused narrative that tugs at the heartstrings as well as having been a winner at the Berlin festival earlier in the year. Canada's Incendies is just presumed to be a frontrunner, but when the shortlists come out we may well see some of these very choices miss out. Other options could be Mexico's Biutiful from Alejandro González Iñárritu (whose films have been nominated in the category before), although I still think the film is much too miserablist for their tastes, or recent Golden Globe winner In a Better World from Danish auteur Suzanne Bier (these do tend to skew more European, after all).

UPDATED: UMMM the shortlists came out and it turns out that 3 of these didn't make the cut at all. Damn. I'm terrible at this.

New predictions:
Algeria - Outside the Law
Canada - Incendies
Denmark - In a Better World
Mexico - Biutiful
South Africa - Life, Above All

Best Original Song
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"Pretty Girls," Despicable Me
"I See the Light," Tangled
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
"Shine," Waiting for Superman

Another fickle branch of the Academy is the music branch. A jury of voters watches each qualifying song as it plays in the movie it belongs to and gives it a certain score of which it must pass a threshold to be nominated — which has led to some pretty shocking snubs in the past. There could be as few as two nominees, or even none in a given year. I do think there are enough songs from this year to suit their fancy, however, for a full five-nominee category. Music star Dido's haunting voice sings to A.R. Rahman's melody that this branch and the Academy at large proved to like 2 years ago with Slumdog Millionaire at a crucial plot point in 127 Hours. It's the kind of stuff Best Song nominations are meant for. Alan Menken is so beloved in this category that he's won eight Oscars in six years (!!!) at the height of the Disney renaissance in the early 90s, and had three nominations from Enchanted as early as 2007. This year, he's only submitted one song, as to prevent him from splitting votes from himself and potentially winning a ninth Oscar for Tangled. Randy Newman's another music legend adored by the Academy, with a great song in a great film that plays over the humorous credits. "Shine" by John Legend has the air of social importance that got Melissa Etheridge an Oscar in 2006 for An Inconvenient Truth — a documentary from the same director as Waiting for Superman. I just have "Pretty Girls" as kind of a surprise inclusion because Pharell did a great job with the Despicable Me soundtrack and, in recent years, the branch has been kind to hip hop stars (puzzlingly enough). He may even be a threat to win if he does overcome to hurdle to be nominated.
Other songs with chances include a limit of two for Burlesque, a beautiful Jónsi song from How To Train Your Dragon and the perfectly lovely "Chanson Illusioniste" from The Illusionist — considering the song mention for Chomet's last film, The Triplets of Belleville.

Best Original Score
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network

I think Rahman's now officially a member of the club, which means he'll rack up as many nominations as possible as long as he keeps scoring potential Picture contenders (or, just Boyle films). Rachel Portman is in that same club for Never Let Me Go, and The King's Speech seems like a good excuse to reward both that film and Desplat's career year (in which he produced highly superior scores to the likes of The Ghost Writer and Harry Potter 7.1. Inception and The Social Network both just happen to be the most rewarded scores of the year, with The Social Network actually having more wins than the already iconic Inception soundtrack. This group historically is not kind to rock stars like Trent Reznor, but if they already considered him qualified (they could have disqualified him the way they did to Johnny Greenwood for There Will Be Blood) then perhaps it means they like him. Besides, it's in a Picture frontrunner with the score having some resemblance (besides being much better and all) than that of The Hurt Locker, nominated last year.

Best Sound Mixing
Inception
Iron Man 2
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Best Sound Editing
127 Hours
Inception
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Unstoppable

I'll be the first to admit that I don't have the best ear for spotting the difference between sound mixing and sound editing. Ultimately, from what I understand, sound mixing is the sounds that are made and sound editing is how those sounds are incorporated into the movie. Animated films, and particularly Pixar films, tend to be popular in these categories. Often they only get one or the other, but I figure if that's the case then it's probably safer to predict Toy Story 3 in both instead of picking the wrong one. Sound mixers are said to be astounded by the soundtrack of The Social Network, from the club scene where you can still perfectly hear dialogue despite the overwhelming noise of the music or Fincher getting as detailed as the perfect sound of Zuckerberg's flip flops. I think it'll get nominated in both. The other slots and choices, particularly Inception, comes from people's general perception that "louder" is "better" in this category.

Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman

Rick Baker's the stuff of legends and his work on The Wolfman is said to be of all-time great level. Alice in Wonderland provides opportunity for very baity makeup work, and the aging done on the actors of Barney's Version is particularly up this branch's aisle. Although this category is often known for curveballs as well. You might see something like The Fighter make it here, or perhaps Black Swan. Those would be in place of Barney's Version, as I think the other two are quite safe.

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy

It's hard to go very wrong in this category, since the branch oddly released a bakeoff of seven eligible films for it this year. They've always done that, but this year is the first in which the category is extended from three to five. The only ones not here that were included were Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World. Seeing the latter there would be a fabulous surprise, but I don't have my hopes up.

Best Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
The Social Network

Another reason I can't put Pilgrim in my visual effects category is because I already have my delusions predicting it here in a shock. Generally this category includes 4 Picture nominees and an extra slot for some really fancy editing. This slot in the past has gone to District 9 and The Bourne Ultimatum. I figure editors know better than anyone how brilliant and innovative the use of editing was in Scott Pilgrim, the same way cinematographers were able to recognize the brilliance of The White Ribbon last year against everyone's predictions. Before her passing Sally Menke had even remarked highly of the use of editing in that movie.
The other four nominees are just ACE nominees and Picture contender.

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Colleen Atwood doing fantasy, Sandy Powell doing period, a ballet flick and an old Western flick. Seems pretty standard to me.

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Similar rules from above apply here. Just call The Social Network a hunch, though.

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Inception and True Grit are locks and frontrunners. The King's Speech and The Social Network could make it in just based on the strength of them being BP frontrunners. Black Swan is just hella impressive and has been a critics' darling of sorts (the way The White Ribbon was last year).

Best Animated Film
How To Tran Your Dragon
My Dog Tulip
Toy Story 3

Again, call My Dog Tulip a hunch as well (too many of those?), but the branch here really likes fringey out there animation and aren't afraid to nominate something totally obscure at a moment's notice. Not to mention its brilliant campaign to draw attention to itself in Hollywood. It could be replaced by The Illusionist, as they liked Sylvain Chomet's work last time, but he sadly wasn't BAFTA nominated. The support could be weaker than we think.

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

It's either 127 Hours or The Town in that last slot. Both were WGA nominated, but that's probably because Winter's Bone wasn't eligible. BAFTA nominated 127 Hours, but I don't know how much of an overlap there is with BAFTA writers (certainly not as much as the acting branch).

Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Alright, look. I'm sensing a major upset here, I just don't know where. I think the two K's are pretty locked in, as is Inception. Neither Black Swan nor The Fighter seem like much of writer's movies, but Black Swan especially seems like more a feat in directing and acting than anything else. But what could slip in? Four Lions could potentially pop up as this year's In the Loop. Another Year wasn't nominated at BAFTA for its screenplay but then again, the Academy recognized Happy-Go-Lucky which was shut out in BAFTA nominations. But that film also had more precursor support. AGGGH!! Animal Kingdom also seems very written, and Blue Valentine seems like perfectly indie fare to reward here as it was cresting at just the right time for awards momentum (in spite of much of the film being improvised).

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

It may seem ballsy, but I'm allowing BAFTA to justify my ballsiness here. This was always the most open category all season, and a shakeup is in order. Amy Adams and Helena Bonham Carter are locks after their nominations at the BFCA, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and BAFTAs. Melissa Leo is a lock as well with her wins at the Globes and the BFCA, as well as a likely SAG win. Once we get beyond that, there are two open slots. Jacki Weaver missed out on the SAG. Mila Kunis missed the BAFTA in favor of her co-star, Barbara Hershey. Lesley Manville missed out on most things and has category confusion. But from the very first round of BAFTA voting, which includes enough members of the Academy to get her a spot in such a free-for-all year, Manville landed in the top five. And in the top five she remains, and potential frontrunner for the win in this category. Weaver's small Australian film was the first screener sent out which, from my experiences, can be very telling of that film's chances come nomination morning. Think The Savages, the first screener of 2007 which went unnoticed all season until Laura Linney's nomination for Best Actress. Think District 9 last year. Plus, seeing her on the campaign circuit all of a sudden in all her sweetness makes it hard for me to imagine she misses. I would love for Mila Kunis to get in, however, Barbara Hershey making that spot over her at the BAFTA was very telling. She was never all that safe to begin with, and if she has that kind of formidable internal competition at play then I think they may well both cancel each other out. And we'll get to Hailee Steinfeld in a moment.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Number's game. Rush and Bale are the two locks getting nominations from all the BFCA, Globes, SAG and BAFTA. Garfield, Renner and Ruffalo all have three of those four off their checklist, which keeps them relatively safe. Although Postlethwaite's posthumous (say those two words five times fast) BAFTA nomination makes me worried of Renner's chances with that internal competition. Postlethwaite was an honored and respected character actor on the other side of the pond, as well, and in spite of it being pretty solely almost shamefully sentimental I can see those two canceling out the way I foresee for both Kunis and Hershey. And I am getting the growing sense that SAG nominated John Hawkes can still sneak in. It'd be a good NGNG pick, but I think Winter's Bone might be rather doomed as a film...

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

I figured with Steinfeld's lead placement at BAFTAs longlists alone would put her in serious contention for the final lead nomination slot at the Oscars, but with a shiny new BAFTA nomination now actually to her name it seems all the more clear. I can actually kind of foresee Kidman missing before Steinfeld, whereas before I was worried Steinfeld might split votes between the Lead and Supporting category. Rabbit Hole, on the other hand, missed out on a WGA mention for its Pulitzer and Tony Award winning writer, the film's made a dismal box office showing, and no one outside of Kidman seems to be nominated for the film. Are people even watching it at this point? They might just be putting her name down for her being Kidman. Michelle Williams may have hope yet!

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Duvall missed a Globe nomination, and he missed a BAFTA nomination. Generally, though, you want to try to not sway so much away from the SAG nominations (which aligned with Oscar nominations last year 19/20), so I'm keeping this pretty much the same. With Bridges getting BAFTA nominated again, I see him joining the safe club along with Firth, Eisenberg, and Franco. My dream would be for Blue Valentine to really break through replacing one of those last slots on the Picture list, with Gosling over Duvall, Williams over Kidman, and the screenplay over something else. It could happen but all those elements would have to come together perfectly and I'm just not willing to take the risk of breaking that far away from precedent (which I've already done plenty of). Another possible upset to look for is Javier Bardem's humane performance in Biutiful which received high profile endorsements at the height of voting season and a BAFTA nomination this morning.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception

I had predicted David O. Russell to get the DGA nomination over the Coen brothers. But in the past decade the DGA has only aligned with the Academy's nominations twice, one of which being last year. It definitely seems too soon for that to happen again, meanwhile many DGA ballots were sent before True Grit's fantastic performance at the box office nevermind the fact that the DGA was always more of a populist voting body to begin with. I can't see any on the line auteurs like Mike Leigh or Peter Weir making it in here, or even a woman like Lisa Cholodenko or Debra Granik following Bigelow's shattering of the glass ceiling last year. I think they're all probably in the top ten with Russell, but pretty far behind.

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

I've finally taken Winter's Bone off my list. It got shutout at the BAFTAs and hasn't made much of a guild appearance at all, unlike both 127 Hours or The Town. Neither of which got the top BAFTA nomination but they both got enough to suggest the support to get them in over Winter's Bone (especially that nomination for Danny Boyle). Blue Valentine also got shutout but I see that potentially appealing to a lot of voters that only got to see it after the unusually early SAG balloting where it did very well in limited release as ballots were released. So I guess those are two upset options.

The Social Network - 11 nominations
Inception - 10 nominations
The King's Speech - 10 nominations
True Grit - 9 nominations
127 Hours - 7 nominations
Black Swan - 7 nominations
The Fighter - 6 nominations
Toy Story 3 - 6 nominations
Alice in Wonderland - 4 nominations
The Kids Are All Right - 4 nominations
The Town - 2 nominations
Winter's Bone - 2 nominations Read more!

BAFTA Awards

The British Academy of Film and Television is the British equivalence of the Oscars and Emmys rolled into one, essentially. They've had a long tradition of handing out awards, as such national Academic bodies do, but only since 1999 have they started to reward their films prior to the Oscars and have, in the years since, proven to be a crucial indicator as a precursor to the Academy Awards. They can be the deciding factors in breaking ties or deciding a very open race.

Look at 2007, for example. National treasure Julie Christie lost out on their Lead Actress prize to French darling Marion Cotillard after what had grown into a real two-way horse race (with Ellen Page as a possible upset). Marion Cotillard managed to take the Oscars. The real clusterfuck that year, however, was in the Best Supporting Actress category where Amy Ryan had been a critics darling for Gone Baby Gone, Cate Blanchett was the industry favorite after having won the Golden Globe for gender bending in I'm Not There, elderly veteran character actress Ruby Dee had won the Screen Actor's Guild prize for essentially a cameo in American Gangster and Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA for Michael Clayton. Guess who won the Oscar that year?

In Round 1 of voting, the BAFTA members release a longlist of 15 names and films per category that, in Round 2, they whittle down to 5. They denote, however, which films made the top 5 in each category except for Best Film in Round 1, which tends to mirror the final nominations about 75% of the time. The final nominations for the BAFTA should be released close to 3 a.m. EST, so I feel like I might as well attempt to predict them even though I've never done such a thing. So don't take these very seriously.

Best Film
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Director
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network

Leading Actor
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jim Broadbent, Another Year
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Leading Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Carey Mulligan, Never Let Me Go
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love

Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Pete Postlethwaite, The Town

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Original Screenplay
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Ghost
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Animated Film
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Original Music
127 Hours
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Production Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
The King's Speech

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit

Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Sound
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Special Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Monsters
TRON: Legacy

Make up & Hair
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
The King's Speech Read more!

The Golden Globe Awards

Well, the Critic's Choice Awards last night was a complete snoozer, with no unexpected wins. But that's rather expecting coming from the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Does that differ much from the Globes, whose choices just tend to be dumber than everyone else's? Remains to be seen, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

Here are my choices ranked from most likely to least likely to win:

Best Drama Picture:
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. Black Swan

Best Comedy/Musical Picture:
1. The Kids Are All Right
2. Alice in Wonderland
3. Burlesque
4. Red
5. The Tourist

Best Director:
1. David Fincher
2. Christopher Nolan
3. Darren Aronofsky
4. David O. Russell
5. Tom Hooper

Best Drama Actor:
1. Colin Firth
2. Jesse Eisenberg
3. James Franco
4. Ryan Gosling
5. Mark Wahlberg

Best Drama Actress:
1. Natalie Portman
2. Nicole Kidman
3. Michelle Williams
4. Jennifer Lawrence
5. Halle Berry

Best Comedy/Musical Actor:
1. Kevin Spacey
2. Johnny Depp (Alice in Wonderland)
3. Paul Giamatti
4. Jake Gyllenhaal
5. Johnny Depp (Tourist)

Best Comedy/Musical Actress:
1. Julianne Moore
2. Annette Bening
3. Emma Stone
4. Anne Hathaway
5. Angelina Jolie

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christian Bale
2. Geoffrey Rush
3. Michael Douglas
4. Andrew Garfield
5. Jeremy Renner

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Helena Bonham Carter
2. Amy Adams
3. Melissa Leo
4. Mila Kunis
5. Jacki Weaver

Best Screenplay:
1. The Social Network
2. The Kids Are All Right
3. The King's Speech
4. Inception
5. 127 Hours

Best Score:
1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. The King's Speech
5. 127 Hours

Best Song:
1. "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"
2. "Bound to You"
3. "Coming Home"
4. "I See the Light"
5. "There's a Place for Us"

Best Animated Picture:
1. Toy Story 3
2 (tie). How To Train Your Dragon/The Illusionist/Tangled
5. Despicable Me

Best Foreign Language Picture:
1. I Am Love
2. Biutiful
3. The Concert
4. In a Better World
5. The Edge Read more!

The Broadcast Film Critics Choice Awards

Airing on VH1 tomorrow, with such distinguished presenters as...the Kardashians...does it matter? Of course not. Here's who will win, anyways (they're usually pretty predictable and try to stay in line with who has the most tangible Oscar buzz).

Best Picture: The Social Network
Alternate: The King's Speech

Best Actor: Colin Firth
Alternate: James Franco

Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Alternate: Annette Bening

Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
Alternate: Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld

Best Young Actor/Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Acting Ensemble: The Kids Are All Right
Alternate: The Fighter

Best Director: David Fincher
Alternate: Christopher Nolan

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Alternate: Inception

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Alternate: None.

Best Cinematography: True Grit
Alternate: Inception

Best Art Direction: Inception
Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

Best Editing: Inception
Alternate: The Social Network

Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Alternate: The King's Speech

Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
Alternate: Black Swan

Best Visual Effects: Inception
Alternate: None.

Best Sound: Inception
Alternate: Black Swan

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Alternate: None.

Best Action Movie: Inception
Alternate: None.

Best Comedy: Easy A
Alternate: I Love You Phillip Morris

Best Picture Made for Television: Temple Grandin
Alternate: The Pacific

Best Foreign Language Film: I Am Love
Alternate: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Best Documentary Feature: Waiting for Superman
Alternate: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Song: "Shine"
Alternate: "I See the Light"

Best Score: Inception
Alternate: The Social Network Read more!

MOB: Another year, another set of predictions

This will likely be my second-to-last set of predictions, the last one before my final predictions. There are a couple of precursors left to look for — particularly, the guilds for the techs and the BAFTA nominations. This set of predictions might look a little bit safe, but the fact is that the most often correct predictions are those which play it on the safer side. I've had a change of heart over a few things in the past few weeks, but we'll go over all of them.

Best Picture:
1. The Social Network
2. The Fighter
3. The King's Speech
4. Black Swan
5. Inception
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Toy Story 3
9. Winter's Bone
10. The Town

My major change of heart here was The Town, which I thought needed desperately that SAG Ensemble nom that it missed out on. But it didn't miss out entirely, adding to Jeremy Renner's check-list of the major precursors needed for his category (Globes, BFCA, SAG) and got both the PGA (important) and the WGA (not important). It's most serious competition is 127 Hours, which will have a good amount of tech support...supposedly. It did miss out on the Cinema Audio Society nominees today, and that might spell disaster for the other guilds. Like The Town, however, it did manage to catch both the PGA and the WGA as well as an obvious nomination for Franco at the SAG. The Town has more passion, however, and will likely grab more #1 votes than 127 Hours which seems more admired than loved. Both films topped Winter's Bone for the PGA, but I don't think that film's missing out with two SAG nominations (including a surprise for John Hawkes) and support from recent Oscar-winning directors Scorsese and Bigelow. I think Toy Story 3 is ultimately safe, as well, with voters like Quentin Tarantino and Diane Keaton so far having gone on record to call it their favorite films of the year. The passion there will do the work itself. Inception has the Christopher Nolan factor, True Grit is dominating the box office as we speak, and the other five that pivotal SAG Ensemble nomination.

Assuming Winter's Bone will be included, that leaves one spot open that both The Town and 127 Hours are fighting for. Last year, 8/10 of the PGA's choices matched up with Academy nominations, which means that something like The Blind Side can come up as a surprise mention. Let's say both The Town and 127 Hours kind of cancel themselves out, what else makes it? There's a few options. I think one important factor to look for will be the BAFTA longlists released at the end of this week. Of course, these lists include a lot of names — 15 choices per category! But the BAFTA's acting branch is probably the single precursor with the largest percentage of AMPAS member overlap, and if they show a lot of love for the entire cast of Another Year — which means Manville, Broadbent, Sheen, Wight, Bradley, AND Staunton — can potentially show enough support for this otherwise shutout film to slip into that last slot. Blue Valentine is another possible film, doing well in limited release with the full might of the Weinstein Company behind it. I think it will undoubtedly have the passion, but that passion might skew a bit young and dependent on the actors who might have trouble sneaking in to their respective categories.

Best Director:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

These five seem pretty good, unless Aronofsky is simply not liked in the directors branch. The DGA will be important to look for at the beginning of next week, which may or may not snub him or even someone like Tom Hoooper in favor of a more populist game changing choice like O'Russell for The Fighter which has undoubted enthusiasm in Hollywood. I could also see Debra Granik or Mike Leigh cracking this list.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low

SAG lineup. It'd be a shame to see it without Ryan Gosling, but it happens. Jeff Bridges' career is just too hot right now and Robert Duvall proved his respect in Hollywood with a recent star in his honor added to the Hollywood Walk of Fame. I could still see either missing out to Gosling, or potentially other stars with more passionate supporters like Javier Bardem for Biutiful (Sean Penn and Julia Roberts are nice stars to have on your side for the Oscars) or even Michael Douglas showing up for Solitary Man a la Tommy Lee Jones in 2007.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Lesley Manville, Another Year

Common wisdom says that fifth slot is up for grabs, but I honestly believe the only ones totally safe for nominations are Portman and Bening. Lawrence got that SAG nomination, obviously good news for her, but heat for her film in general has cooled. And Rabbit Hole is pulling in some disappointing numbers at the box office which has brought no wins yet to Kidman (while there have been wins for Portman, Bening, Lawrence, Manville and Michelle Williams) let alone many nominations for anyone else involved in the film.
Weinstein doesn't have anyone from The King's Speech to focus a campaign on in this category, and she has a lot of allies including Kate Winslet holding private screenings for her. I think BAFTA will keep Manville into that slot, hopefully with a win, and confirm NBR's track record with Actress winners. But as I said, a scenario with both actresses nominated would not be unheard of to me.
Something to look for would be BAFTA's category placement of Manville. If they put her Supporting, hell, perhaps she'll be put supporting and perhaps even switch a slot with otherwise-campaigned supporting Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit into that slot. Honestly though, Williams deserves it more.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town

Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush are the only two locks, at the moment. I believe that Bale will ultimately win but that it won't be a smooth journey to that Kodak Theater stage. Andrew Garfield will give them fair competition for the BAFTA though, methinks, considering he's already a past winner at only 27 years old and will likely get another nomination that same night for the Rising Star award (which he stands a fair chance at winning). Not to mention, he's very likely to show up again in the Supporting category for his hauntingly internalized performance in Never Let Me Go. That SAG snub, though? Ouch. I think he'll be nominated, and if he upsets for a BAFTA win in this category then that could really switch this race up. Mark Ruffalo is not only overdue but respected, with The Kids Are All Right being assured views of its screeners that will showcase a performance that caters to all of his acting strengths. Jeremy Renner is an Academy darling, quite frankly, doing plenty of rounds and making himself available for Academy events year-wide (such as announcing the Student Academy Awards). His performance has passion in a film that already has passion, and he's still hot from his breakthrough nomination last year for Best Picture winner (nay, dominator) The Hurt Locker. A John Hawkes nomination for Winter's Bone would also fit perfectly into an Academy narrative, being such an underappreciated character actor in a great Oscar-bait film. It's a narrative that tends to be more successful with the SAG, however, which doesn't often align 20/20 and I don't think the British contingent will let Andrew Garfield (or me) down.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Don't mind the rankings. Anyone who has a chance to be nominated has a chance to win, and the only reason I don't have one of the ladies from The Fighter on top is because of the probability of vote splitting between them. And I don't have Hailee Steinfeld's great performance as a precocious young girl in True Grit because voters genuinely don't find her supporting, and like I said earlier, she has some tough competition for that last lead actress slot. Either way, it'll siphon votes from her in both categories. Paramount attached a letter to Academy voters in the screeners sent to them urging them to nominate a performance in both categories if they're not sure of its proper placement. At the same time, however, Academy governors like Tom Hanks have sent out letters urging voters to place performances where they honestly think they should be placed. Could be trouble for this young girl, who's career will probably be bright in any case.

Best Original Screenplay:
1. The Kids Are All Right
2. The King's Speech
3. Inception
4. The Fighter
5. Another Year

Best Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Social Network
2. True Grit
3. Winter's Bone
4. Toy Story 3
5. The Town

Best Animated Film:
1. Toy Story 3
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist Read more!

MOB: Screen Actor's Guild Preview

All I'll say about this morning's controversial Golden Globes announcement is A) what did you expect with this year's thin Musical/Comedy category?, B) I'm very disappointed in the shutout for Another Year and have to start doubting Lesley Manville's chances despite being the performance of the year, and that C) with Gosling, Williams and Garfield all nominated there's no way that this is anywhere near the worst nominations handed out by the HFPA (you should see some of their past history!).

Next we move on to the SAG announcement, which should come in a few hours. Not too much to discuss here other than my predictions, which will probably be mostly wrong. But hey, it doesn't hurt to guess?

Ensemble:
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town

Other possibilities: Another Year (finger's crossed for surprise love?), Inception, True Grit and Black Swan.

Best Actor:
James Franco, 127 Hours
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Other options: Michael Douglas, Ryan Gosling, Mark Wahlberg.

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Other options: Halle Berry, Lesley Manville? :(, Julianne Moore

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town

Other options: Matt Damon, John Hawkes, Sam Rockwell

Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Other options: Barbara Hershey, Mila Kunis, Jacki Weaver Read more!

MOB: Golden Globe Preview

Forgive me, I can't write much here because I have to get cranking on this paper on the merits of what can be called "cinematic." I think it's gonna be an all-nighter, so I should use very minute I can get. I'll probably be up late enough to catch the Golden Globe nomination announcement. NYFCC announced today and, uh, my preview column was a lot less helpful in predicting. The Kids Are All Right kind of came out of nowhere with three wins. I can't imagine legitimate critics who actually got more out of Annette Bening's performance than Lesley Manville's? Anyways, my Golden Globe predictions after the cut.

Best Motion Picture - Drama:
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy:
Alice in Wonderland
Greenberg
The Kids Are All Right
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Toy Story 3

Note: Question of Toy Story 3's eligibility, though.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama:
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy:
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Ben Stiller, Greenberg
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love & Other Drugs
John Malkovich, Red
Michael Cera, Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama:
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy:
Emma Stone, Easy A
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love & Other Drugs
Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Marion Cotillard, Inception
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Kristin Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy

Best Director - Motion Picture:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Fincher, The Social Network
Ben Affleck, The Town
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture:
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3

Best Original Song - Motion Picture:
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"Alice," Alice in Wonderland
"Country Strong," Country Strong
"I See the Light," Tangled
"Shine," Waiting for Superman

Best Original Score - Motion Picture:
127 Hours
The King's Speech
Inception
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network

Best Foreign Language Film:
Biutiful
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
I Am Love
Of Gods and Men
Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

Best Animated Feature Film:
The Illusionist
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3 Read more!