The New York Film Critics Circle's decision this year to leapfrog over all other precursor awards this year has decidedly backfired as they've proven entirely incapable of seeing all the possible options, including who knows how many hidden gems wanting desperately to bubble over the surface. Either way, they've delayed their voting to Tuesday morning, which will be announced via their twitter page, so that they can see David Fincher's Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. They will not be able to catch Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, which certain members will humbly suggest has to do with that film's own level of quality. I think most people realize that is ludicrous.
But what can win? Last year you had options like eventual champ The Social Network at a staggering 96 on metacritic with Toy Story 3 also well into the 90s (and at a higher percentage of positive reviews on rottentomatoes). This year mainstream cinema has not been able to break 87 on metacritic, currently in a three-way tie between Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. II, Moneyball and latest entry The Artist. This could bode well for The Artist since the other two seem to be a bit light for critics' favor, although most of the reviews I can see on the aggregate site seem to be Los Angeles critics for whom the film looks better suited to anyways. And then of course if Dragon Tattoo delivers as the final film they see before voting that could very well lead to a bandwagon (but would they want to have another Fincher film sweep two years in a row?). In a second tier of 85 scores you have Martin Scorsese's Hugo, Mike Nichols' Take Shelter and Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life, which just recently won the top spot on Sight & Sound Magazine's 2011 film poll of 100 critics. The Social Network being the first American film in a long time to win that prize last year boded well for its own critical success, and though The Tree of Life is inarguably more divisive it still did win the Palme D'Or after an initial stammering of boos upon its premiere and even won the main FIRPRESCI prize of critics polled this year, which means it just does fare very well among groups of critics in terms of finding consensus in a year like this.
Other options obviously include the likes of The Descendants, though LA has always been much more of the Payne-fanboy type than the New York critics. If they want to go super-inspired and outre they could easily also go for A Separation, the best film of the year for my money and runner-up at the Sight & Sound poll (and the likely annointed ones at least among the foreign film scene this year).
Possibilities:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. II
Hugo
Moneyball
Shame
Take Shelter
The Tree of Life
We Need To Talk About Kevin
My prediction: The Tree of Life (runner-up: The Descendants)
Goldderby's poll of pundits has them picking The Descendants but Jean Dujardin still besting Clooney. But I think one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year will end up being Steve McQueen's Shame (evidenced by a FIRPRESCI prize of its own at Venice) which is driven by a lead performance by Michael Fassbender, still primed in a perfect position between foreign indie critics fave and bonafide film star. But for each of these three actors it could prove to be a consolation prize in well-liked films (not to even mention a possibility to double-mention Brad Pitt for the well-reviewed Moneyball and The Tree of Life).
Possibilities:
George Clooney, The Descendants/The Ides of March
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love/Drive/The Ides of March
Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method/Jane Eyre/Shame/X-Men First Class
Woody Harrelson, Rampart
Hunter McCracken, The Tree of Life
Peyman Moaadi, A Separation
Brad Pitt, Moneyball/The Tree of Life
Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
My prediction: Michael Fassbender, Shame (runner-up: Jean Dujardin)
Best Actress is such a peculiar category because many of the perceived frontrunners for Oscar glory are not seen as being in critically acclaimed films (Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams, Glenn Close and even leading contender Viola Davis herself). But it's not like there aren't great options to choose from actually great films, and then of course there's the possibility they do go for one of these other, by all measures praised, performances in weaker films, or even a sight unseen like Rooney Mara (I wouldn't count TGWTDT out for anything considering it'll be the one freshest on their minds and is likely to leave an imprint on their mind, judging from the preview materials we've seen). They've gone for veterans in the past like Meryl Streep in 2009 or, less explicably, Annette Bening last year. That could bode very well for either Meryl Streep or overdue Glenn Close. But there are also ingenues this year like Elizabeth Olsen, Felicity Jones and Rooney Mara. Cannes queens Tilda Swinton and Kirsten Dunst are in the running for a critics' darling position themselves that might prove crucial in their path to a coveted Oscar nomination alongside names like Olivia Colman or even praised performances last year just released this year like Juliette Binoche in Certified Copy or the fantastic Jeong-hee Yoon for Poetry (though LA and NSFC are more likely to reward foreign-language performances in general).
Possibilities:
Juliette Binoche, Certified Copy
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Michelle Williams, Meek's Cutoff/My Week With Marilyn
My prediction: Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin (runner-up: Michelle Williams)
The supporting categories could be a place to conceivably go with Oscar prognostication since New York has historically always been closer aligned to Oscar success than any other critics' group. If Christopher Plummer is the frontrunner in Supporting Actor, then maybe he'll win Best Supporting Actor. He certainly won't see Max Von Sydow as competition. But sometimes these critics like to go a little rougher around the edges, and I think a veteran alternative like Albert Brooks in the gritty Drive provides them a good opportunity at rewarding that otherwise well-reviewed film (though not the most kindly from NY critics in general) and a choice that might be seen as slightly fresher even though he's deep in the hunt for Oscar. But as far as I can tell those are the two options it really comes down to.
Possibilities:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Robert Forster, The Descendants
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Christopher Plummer, Beginners/The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
My prediction: Albert Brooks, Drive (runner-up: Christopher Plummer)
Just like Plummer is slated to sweep his category, though he might not start here, another actress who looks "sweepy" seems to be Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus, getting Oscar predictions as soon as last January when the film was screened at the Berlin Film Festival. She lost out on the festival prize for Actress (for which I presume she was a frontrunner) to the female ensemble of A Separation, about which I'm not complaining. If they go, as they often do, for prizes recognizing multiple performances than the award is almost sealed for breakthrough (in every sense of the word) actress Jessica Chastain, between Take Shelter, The Tree of Life, The Help and The Debt has established a critically acclaimed, artistically diverse, and generally financially successful career this past year alone. Other contenders in this category from critically acclaimed selections include the radiant Carey Mulligan in Shame, Berenice Bejo in The Artist, and Shailene Woodley in The Descendants.
Possibilities:
The female ensemble of A Separation (heh)
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, Coriolanus/The Debt/The Help/Take Shelter/The Tree of Life
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Helen McCrory, Hugo
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Drive/Shame
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Kate Winslet, Carnage
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
My prediction: Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life, et all (runner-up: Vanessa Redgrave)
For best director the slate of options should be similar to the contenders for Best Film, although a bigger name and more craft-oriented director like Kathryn Bigelow and David Fincher are more likely than lesser named or more subdued directors like Michael Hazanavicius or Alexander Payne. That said, splits happened here a lot more often than not (and especially more than at the Oscars) and it almost seems as if they're overdue for one.
Possibilities:
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Lynne Ramsay, We Need To Talk About Kevin
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Apichatpong Weerasethakul, Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives
My prediction: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life (runner-up: Michel Hazanavicius)
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