BAFTA Awards

Potentially the most significant of awards precursors to the Oscars is coming this upcoming Sunday, when the British Academy of Film and Television Awards are handed out. Due to differences in voting procedures the results don't necessarily align 100% with the actual Academy's itself, but there is the largest overlap of voters from any body and could often be indicative of larger voting trends at play which can prove to be a deciding factor in an open race.

In this case, there isn't all that much excitement to be had. It's clear that The King's Speech is even more of a phenomenon in the UK than it is in this country, and that's saying something considering its trifecta sweep of the guilds. But a sweep here isn't necessarily so safe — all it means is that Best Film is perhaps the least competitive category of the bunch.

BEST FILM:
Nominees:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: Nothing else, really.
Should Win: Only in my humble opinion, The Social Network. But it doesn't stand a chance in hell here, making very little splash at the box office and with very few nominations even compared to the likes of fellow competitors Inception and Black Swan which will probably pull ahead of it.

People often misconstrue this for meaning that the category for Best British Film — in which The King's Speech is also nominated — is also locked up. After all, how can it be the best film if it's not the best British film? Well, this category is voted upon by a separate jury that has its own unique tastes; often for the quirky and independent. Never has a British film that won Best Film also win for this category — it's almost as if they intentionally avoid it. Slumdog Millionaire lost it. The Queen lost it. Atonement lost it. It just doesn't happen.

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Another Year
Four Lions
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham

Will Win: Four Lions fits the prototypical winner in this category to a T, more or less.
Could and Should Win: It would be lovely to see Another Year win, here, although I haven't seen the supposedly hilarious Four Lions.

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Nominees:
The Arbor
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Four Lions
Monsters
Skeleton

Will Win: My brain says The Arbor, my heart says semi-sensation Monsters.
Should Win: I haven't seen most of the contenders, here (should be getting to The Arbor pretty soon), but it's always an interesting prospect to give Banksy (Exit Through the Gift Shop) an award.

DIRECTOR:
Nominees:
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network

Will Win: Even barring wishful thinking, this category often splits because it's just those in the directors' branch voting for this. They often go with the more accomplished auteur, in which David Fincher clearly fits the bill for The Social Network. But I guess you can never count Tom Hooper out.
Could Win: As I said, Tom Hooper, but don't count out accomplished Brit Christopher Nolan, either!
Should Win: I would love to see David Fincher take this.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Will Win: David Seidler's got this one sewn up for The King's Speech
Could Win: WGA winner Inception
Should Win: Another Year, but the BAFTA writers don't seem as enamored with Leigh's writing process as the AMPAS writing branch to nominate it.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:
127 Hours
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Will Win: No matter what you think of The Social Network, it's difficult difficult lemon difficult to deny Aaron Sorkin of this prize for his work.
Could Win: True Grit is the only other Best Film nominee here, but evidently the Brits really love Dragon Tattoo.
Should Win: I would actually vote for Toy Story 3, here. But I'd still feel very bad for Aaron Sorkin if he lost.

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Nominees:
Biutiful
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
I Am Love
Of Gods and Men
The Secret In Their Eyes

Will Win: I just have a hankering that they would respond really well to Biutiful
Could Win: Any of them, really. Dragon Tattoo is a European cultural phenomenon, Tilda Swinton's in I Am Love, Of Gods and Men is French and the only nationality the Brits love more than themselves is the French, and The Secret In Their Eyes is thoroughly entertaining.
Should Win: These nominees kind of blow.

ANIMATED FILM:
Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

Will Win: Toy Story 3
Could Win: Uhh, I guess Annie sweeper How To Train Your Dragon
Should Win: If it were up to me, I would make it a tie between Toy Story 3 and write-in candidate (and inexplicably left off) The Illusionist.

Funny how Leading Actor seemed to match up with the Academy lineup 5/5. Last season, the BAFTA provided a rare source of inspiration by rewarding Colin Firth's work in A Single Man — quite frankly one of the best performances ever Oscar nominated in this category (although he lost out most of the season to Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart).

LEADING ACTOR:
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Will Win: Colin Firth seems slated for an easy back-to-back win.
Could Win: Javier Bardem's deeply affecting performance in a foreign language, which the BAFTAs have historically been kinder to.
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg, for the Shakespearean cadence with which he delivered his deeply Sorkinian dialogue.

With a Bening upset at this week's London Film Critics Awards, people are thinking of a possible Bening upset in the Leading Actress category over Natalie Portman. Can it really happen?

LEADING ACTRESS:
Nominees:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Noomi Rapace, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Will Win and Should Win: You bet against Natalie Portman and her film's 12 nominations at your own risk.
Could Win: I actually think Bening's co-star sharing this category with her is a bit of a deathwish for Bening's chances, for a vocal group of voters who prefer Moore will almost surely take votes away from her. I'd say Steinfeld might actually be second in line.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Nominees:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Pete Postlethwaite, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Will Win: Clearly it's a race between Welsh fave Bale and heart of BP fave Rush. Considering the Melissa Leo snub, which I think has less to do with Leo's name recognition than a lack of enthusiasm for The Fighter itself (if Amy Adams and Christian Bale were only nominated by name recognition, that's not saying much good for the film), and a lot of people genuinely just not knowing that Bale is, in fact, British (to his credit!), I'm gonna take the odds on Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech the way he won for Shakespeare in Love over a decade ago.
Could and Should Win: I already mentioned Christian Bale, but if it's really that close of a race and they split I think former BAFTA winner and hometown darling Andrew Garfield will win his 3rd hometown prize for his performance in The Social Network. But I won't get my hopes up.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Nominees:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Will and Should Win: I get the sense that filling the void for the snub of Melissa Leo and likely runner-up Hailee Steinfeld promoted to lead, that Lesley Manville — my favorite performance of the year — wins the same way that Melissa Leo's been winning American prizes. Older but less recognized but dependable country character actress in an incredibly flashy and showy role. Something tells me if she made it far enough for a top five mention in a category she could have otherwise split votes for herself from in Round I and then making it to Round II's shortlist that she has enough strength to take the win.
Could Win: Helena Bonham Carter could very well coattail this thing to an Oscar, a road to which this would be a crucial prize to win.

ORIGINAL MUSIC:
Nominees:
AR Rahman, 127 Hours
Danny Elfman, Alice in Wonderland
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech

Will Win: Musicians voting here deeply admire Desplat, and the BAFTA voting public at large loves The King's Speech. Looks to me like a match made in heaven.
Could Win: Musicians are also rather obsessed with AR Rahman, and particularly his score for 127 Hours. The category also includes the song he was Oscar nominated for this year, which BAFTA doesn't have a separate category for.
Should Win: John Powell's soaring melodies for How To Train Your Dragon.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will and Should Win: The BAFTA history of this category suggests more artistic and darker choices, of which I think Black Swan fits best.
Could Win: Oscar favorite True Grit, or just The King's Speech if it sweeps.

EDITING:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Will and Should Win: I honestly have no idea, but this is more or less The Social Network's only tech nomination and one I can see Editors appreciating enough to give it a win. Something tells me that's off, though.
Could Win: Oscar snubbed Inception.

PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will Win: Seems too easy to not give to The King's Speech
Could Win: Production designers themselves might very much admire the sets of Inception or go with the easy bait of Alice in Wonderland.
Should Win: For my money, True Grit.

COSTUME DESIGN:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham
True Grit

Will Win: Honestly I can't think of a reason not to just throw this one at The King's Speech.
Could and Should Win: Made in Dagenham

SOUND:
Nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Will Win: Looks like Inception.
Could Win: I can't see anything else winning.
Should Win: Black Swan would be cool, but honestly anything other than The King's Speech would be deserving, here.

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
Inception
Toy Story 3

Will and Should Win: Inception. Signed, sealed and delivered.

Makeup and Hair:
Nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1
The King's Speech
Made in Dagenham

Will Win: I don't even know. I guess Alice in Wonderland?
Could and Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt. 1

RISING STAR AWARD:
Nominees:
Gemma Arterton
Tom Hardy
Andrew Garfield
Aaron Johnson
Emma Stone

Will Win: Actors from public phenomena tend to fare best here, as Kristen Stewart won last year with the help of Twihards. Inception's Tom Hardy should fare well, here.
Could Win: Gemma Arterton's a hottie.
Should Win: The man who's already beat Tom Hardy for a BAFTA once before, and has undoubtedly had a better year, Andrew Garfield. Read more!

The 'Citizen Kane' Comparisons Finally Come to Fruition

70 years ago, a little film called Citizen Kane opened in the United States. The film was a thinly veiled story recounting the life of newspaper tycoon William Randolph Hearst. Hearst was the face of mass media at the time, one of the most important figures of the era dictating how information was often spread in that era. Orson Welles played his character, named Charles Foster Kane in the film, as a young man driven to be as successful as he can be at the cost of everyone around him to the point where his greed became his ultimate downfall. Was it appreciated at its time? Of course it was! Critics went crazy enough for it, and it won as many critics awards as there were at the time — the New York Film Critics Circle Awards and the National Board of Review. The film went up for 9 Oscars in a 10 Best Picture year including Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Sound and Score. But what ended up winning? Why, the heartfelt and more traditional How Green Was My Valley, of course. The film received 10 nominations and virtually swept that year at the Oscars thanks to its mega producer Darryl F. Zanuck. Citizen Kane was left with just one consolation prize in the form of an Oscar for Best Screenplay.

Are the comparisons I'm trying to make ever so clear holding up every step of the way? Well, of course not. The King's Speech will probably win a lot more than How Green Was My Valley's dinky five Oscars. But, in essence, with everyone grappling for examples to look for to find precedent in The King's Speech sudden shattering of The Social Network's buzz I think we need to look no further than the film that it's been controversially compared to in the first place The comparisons, often credited to Peter Travers, were made largely on pretty agreeable and thematic grounds, with The Social Network recounting a similarly dehumanizing rise to power with the social networking service that has shaped the way that this generation communicates. Arguable, and it has been argued, but okay. I think, in general, it holds. Most of the controversy had to do with the legacy of the initial film, but so far it seems to be following the same, doomed (in terms of Oscar success), path.

Ever since the Academy's return to a 10 film Best Picture lineup last year, it's been smartest to search for precedents in the early years of Academy voting which followed a similar preferential ballot to see some trends in voting. Luckily, Citizen Kane was within this time frame and is the film we have to work with as being most often compared to The Social Network. Barring a few obvious circumstantial differences — Hearst himself actively working his influence against the film, a more seasoned director at the helm of How Green Was My Valley, the French New Wave theorists bringing rise to the claim of Citizen Kane as the golden standard for film — I think Citizen Kane today would largely follow the same path. There are truly an absurd number of critics organizations now out there handing out awards, and for the first time I can think of since so many have popped up out of every pocket of the country, one can count on their hands the number of awards The Social Network did not win. The awards it did win do include the NBR and the NYFCC. Critics are pretty damn sure that this is the best movie of the year. But, when you get right down to it, those in the industry respond quicker and easier to a film with so-called "heart." How Green Was My Valley and The King's Speech simply conform better to the genre elements that are proven formulas for Oscar success (see Richard Corliss' excellent piece on The King's Speech from last year's Toronto Film Festival). The industry awards would have broken down the exact same way.

Unless The King's Speech magically finds itself in competition with The Social Network for the WGA, the writers are (shockingly) the only guild that will have reward The Social Network with some substantial prize. Otherwise, the industry just adores The King's Speech. As I said before, if Tom Hooper won that DGA then the race was over. Especially now that it also won the SAG prize that was expected to go to The Fighter, you can call it signed, sealed and delivered. It's a straight up lock, ladies and gentlemen. Whether or not The Social Network will be remembered in the future in quite the same terms of fondness that Citizen Kane currently is remains to be seen; I, myself, was always unsure of the comparison and found it a bit jumping the gun. But no one seems to even be having the same conversation concerning The King's Speech, which is simply filled with too much sameness to properly stand out from this year's crop of visionary work years from now. But, it is slated to sweep, including in many tech categories where it's up against The Social Network while the undeniably fresher Social Network seems destined to leave with just a screenplay prize for Aaron Sorkin and an outside shot at one or two additional tech prizes.

Looking as I am at the current state of the awards race, I must concede that The Social Network really is looking like a Citizen Kane right about now. Read more!