We're in the midst of October, and already it seems like we're getting a clearer sense of the contenders before the first precursors come our way in a month and a half. Don't fret, though, the year will stay exciting with a bulk of December hopefuls left (with plenty of room for some, but there are so many and the release is relatively late so they will drop like flies).
Here, I've assembled various long lists. 8 for the acting categories and director, 15 for picture. This will make all you amateur gurus' jobs easier by giving you a shortlist of what I feel stretch the biggest eligibility of candidates from which to choose for your predictions. I think per day, perhaps, possibly, I'll make a post focused on one of each category. Let's start with directing, which will often inform Picture which often informs many of the acting categories:
Best Director (alphabetical, by film)
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
Mike Leigh, Another Year
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
Peter Weir, The Way Back
The Director's branch has never been afraid to accept new members into their groups, so this is a relatively heavy hitting group of directing superstars that I objectively think would be in contention for the nomination. Even Tom Hooper, director of John Adams, is someone I'd consider a heavy hitter amongst TV directors at least and one who is recognizable enough to have at least a shot at the DGA win (he has been nominated before...). That being said, and with The King's Speech recent win of the Audience Award at the Hamptons Film Festival, to keep company with its Toronto prize (arguably an increasingly important prize leading into the Oscars season), it shows heavy support among actual Academy voters like those who would be attempting the Hamptons festival. The Festival circuit seems to have been a wise decision for Weinstein's campaign of this film, and nevertheless I think it's as safe a bet for Picture as it is here. Of course, taking the festival route, it distinguishes itself from The Social Network appropriately hitting the mainstream. Two weekend box office victories in a row for this film premised around a popular website with only one star in it (who's hardly an actor) and artistic pedigree to the crew. That's an enormous achievement, and as we speak it still seems to be dominating the popular discourse which is essential in attaining buzz. It's in an unfortunate position that makes it ripe to peak too soon, and I think thus far we've seen more evidence of widespread Academy support for The King's Speech, but Fincher probably even maintains a frontrunner status in this category for the win regardless of how the film fares in Picture. I think he's safe.
Those two are in the top tier. From there it gets slightly murkier. The Coen brothers and Danny Boyle are both recent winners, neither of which I can imagine won't benefit from leftover love from '07 and '08, respectively, and relatively big names in the business with probable Best Picture nominees on their hands. There could be room for one of them, or both of them.
The third tier has more of a foreign flavor. Mike Leigh, from the UK, has no less than six Academy Award nominations; two for directing. Peter Weir, approximately the same age as Leigh, hails from Australia. He, too, holds six Academy Award nominations to his name without a win. Difference being, they're all for directing. They both boast baity ensemble pieces this year, though on vastly different scales, that run the risk of being underseen. Both Picture candidates, of course, but not safe. The Way Back announced a qualifying run for the end of December very recently by a distribution company that doesn't seem very resourced to get the film out there. But then again, Weir's been nominated for Best Director six times; the Academy's directing branch is clearly enamored. I'd say the branch gives him so much support that they alone can get his film into Picture. But the film itself hasn't found ecstatic support among its few reviews, with the exception perhaps of Kris Tapley from InContention. Mike Leigh's film is seen as more likely to get into Picture with better reviews, a more able-bodied distribution company in Sony Pictures Classics and likely precursor support in the critics awards. It's very tough to say, but my guess is that one of the two gets in. Both, though not impossible, would be difficult.
Then the next, and final, tier we see Christopher Nolan and Darren Aronofsky. The similarities can be spotted from a mile away. They have a similar reputation among young film fans as mainstream visionaries whose work has yet to be significantly rewarded by major bodies this time of year. Both came close in 2008 with The Dark Knight and The Wrestler. This year doesn't look all that different. Inception is a major summer smash that's seen as an opportunity to finally throw Nolan a nomination while Black Swan is a Venice festival breakout hit with heavy critical acclaim but potential divide amongst its viewers. Inception will have a DVD release to remind voters of how necessary it will be portrayed to give kudos to this major Hollywood studio production. Black Swan, though it might not find consensus love in the Academy, will almost surely have enough passionate supporters in the block to throw #1 votes its way.
How will this all play out? I think the logical thing to do might be to include both from the first tier, and then one each from the following. So a standard good prediction might look like David Fincher, Tom Hooper, Danny Boyle, Peter Weir and Christopher Nolan.
Of course, though, I'm not very logical. My line of thinking is more along the lines of ranking the piers of possibility. Here's how I see the chances for these contenders playing out:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
4. Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, True Grit
5. Peter Weir, The Way Back (hell, at this point he could be a lone nominee that we otherwise saw as impossible in 10 nominee-years)
6. Mike Leigh, Another Year
7. Christopher Nolan, Inception
8. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
But, I include all 8 since those are who I see as the candidates as of right now.
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