The start of the Venice Film Festival has been said to be the unofficial kickoff point to this year's Oscar race, and if that's the case we can safely say that it's done so with more of a whimper than a bang. Major contenders in The Ides of March, A Dangerous Method, and Carnage has thus far left critics cold and largely unimpressed. Telluride has made some critics and bloggers early fans of Alexander Payne's The Descendants, although, sans Clooney's performance, I don't think it's going to find the same success that Sideways did in 2004 (different times, different tastes, different trends, etc.).
The Lead Actress race, to me, always looked like the most interesting race of the big 8 categories this early in the year even before the major festival kickoffs. Tilda Swinton had already squared off against Kirsten Dunst at Cannes and seemed to lose that round, but for seemingly political means. Keira Knightley looked to fit the mold of a standard winner in the category for A Dangerous Method but if you don't want to describe the response to that as divisive, you can even bill the critical consensus as poor. Glenn Close's passion piece Albert Nobbs premiered at Telluride last night, and received good enough reviews for her performance to play a role in this year's race despite a tepid reception for the film itself.
Glenn Close has a very compelling narrative of an overdue veteran close to tying for the least successful female performer in Oscar history as she shoots for her sixth nomination (none since the 80s). However, like I said, a standard winner in this category looks more like Keira Knightley than it does Glenn Close. Helen Mirren was even a few years younger when she won for playing Queen Elizabeth II and she had been the sweepingest actress in film awards history in a Best Picture nominee. In fact, she'd be the oldest winner since Jessica Tandy for Best Picture winner Driving Miss Daisy. Before her, Shirley MacLaine in Best Picture winner Terms of Endearment. Katharine Hepburn won her fourth and last Oscar for Best Picture nominated On Golden Pond. Even Geraldine Page's film was nominated for a screenplay Oscar. Judging from the response to Albert Nobbs, I don't think Glenn Close will have trouble being nominated. At all. She knows how to work a room and has found success on the stage and TV screen ever since her film career fizzled out shortly after her fifth Oscar nomination. I think she's going to have to fight hard for a win, though.
I would expect a similar response to come from Meryl Streep's film about the life of Margaret Thatcher. Meryl Streep has lost more times consecutively since her last win for Sophie's Choice than the entirety of Glenn Close's career, but Close being Oscar-less means that she beats out Streep for the veteran card. I still believe it's hard not to predict Streep at this point, although the chances for a win are very slim.
Meanwhile, The Help looks slated to top the box office for the third weekend in a row, a feat unmatched by any film this year. Not Transformers, not Pirates, not Harry Potter, not Captain America. Granted, it had little competition in this generally sluggish period of the year for film business but it still outperforms expectations week after week by astronomical numbers, and that heartwarming success story combined with the "important" seeming subject matter for the film itself and the enthusiastic word of mouth on it from regular moviegoers and ecstatic screening-viewing Academy members as well makes Viola Davis a safe bet as well, as Disney looks to campaign for her in this category. She will be the only black actress to be nominated in the lead category since Halle Berry became the first one to win in a decade ago, and the only black actress besides Whoopi Goldberg to have more than one nomination at all. With her film clearly beloved, she stands a good chance at depriving Glenn Close at her long sought after win.
With just two slots left, recent Academy trends have shown kindness to recognizing young ingenues for breakout performances. Consider Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone or Carey Mulligan for An Education. These aren't performances that win, generally, but there's a spot for them. I think there are two actresses vying for that spot. Mulligan and Lawrence both won the same prize at the Sundance Film Festival as Felicity Jones did for Like Crazy, an independent handheld relationship drama that looks to be in the same vein as last year's best American film Blue Valentine (which brought actress Michelle Williams a nomination). The prize at Sundance puts her at good company and in good line for precedent, but the one who had truly stolen the show and the spotlight from media attention that year was Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene in a cerebral role that looks comparable to Natalie Portman's winning performance last year for Black Swan. The film itself seems to get more critical notice than big Sundance winner Like Crazy as well, and I think she will continue to steal headlines if nothing else than for the novelty of her being the younger and probably more talented sister to none other than Mary Kate and Ashley. They are both in contention but I'd say there's only space for one between the two of them, and I'd venture to guess that the attention seeking nature of Olsen's role and her very name itself is what could take her over Jones.
That leaves but one slot left. As I said, Tilda Swinton couldn't manage to nab the Cannes prize for Best Actress despite seeming to be a festival sweetheart and easily garnering the best reviews among actresses there. That being said, this isn't Cannes, and the Academy doesn't have nearly a faithful track record to Von Trier films and performances as they. Kirsten Dunst's performance appears to be rather subdued, and only in about the first half of the film before Charlotte Gainsbourgh takes over (whom many prefer over Dunst). Dunst has been a child actress working for a while, like Natalie Portman last year, but her work has not necessarily been taken seriously enough yet despite doing some good work, particularly last year with All Good Things. That said, this looks to be another volume in her independent collecting of street cred before I believe she can truly be a contender.
Tilda, on the other hand, has already garnered major street credit in the industry since her first win for Michael Clayton. That was for a major Best Picture contender anchored by George Clooney in a category open enough to give the film a compensatory prize, but she's been continuing to challenge and prove herself time and time again since then as many feel she was owed nominations for both Julia and I Am Love in some of the proceeding years. She's been honored with nominations at the Golden Globes long before anyone in the Academy paid attention to her, and Oscar bloggers who vote for the Broadcast Film Critics Awards seem to be fans of We Need To Talk About Kevin. Not to mention the British contingent of voters who were arguably the deciding factor in her Oscar win for Clayton, who admire Swinton a great deal. These are major precursors that could truly get the momentum rolling on putting her in that final slot. Campaigning veteran Cynthia Swartz, famously spearheading successful Miramax campaigns in the 90s for winners like The English Patient and Shakespeare in Love into the 2000s with nominees like Chocolat and Finding Neverland before leaving Weinstein with a dry spell until last year's triumph with The King's Speech. In between she looked over the publicity of winners like No Country for Old Men and The Hurt Locker as well as last year's likely runner-up in The Social Network, looks after Venice's trashing to have W.E. off her plate enough to focus on the campaign for Swinton on behalf of Oscilloscope. It's a showy role, not played over the top, in bold material that I think the acting branch will appreciate the level of difficulty of. I'd say she has that fifth slot set.
If enough people see Tyrannosaur, especially if Brits get behind otherwise comedic character actress Olivia Colman's monumental performance in her role, I would highly suggest you watch out for her as a significant darkhorse player. I myself categorize her in Supporting but I'm in the minority. If they push her, I assume they'll push her lead.
Rankings:
1. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
3. Viola Davis, The Help
4. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
5. Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
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6. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
7. Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur
8. Jodie Foster, Carnage
9. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
10. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
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Saturday, September 3, 2011
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